Dynasty League Football

Uncategorized

Preseason Prediction Review

 

Jamaal_Charles

We love the so-called off-season – we take this time to reflect back on what we wrote earlier in the year and also look forward to great events like the NFL Combine and the NFL Draft. After working hard to produce over 330 articles last off-season, we finally took a look forward to the 2012 Fantasy Football year and made our annual fantasy predictions back in August. Some were good and some were, well, you’ll see. We compiled several opinions from the DLF Team and created this list of predictions for last year. The categories were as follows:

Fantasy MVP
Fantasy Rookie of the Year
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player
Fantasy Sleeper
Best Dynasty Buy
Best Dynasty Sell
Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year 

Let’s evaluate the good, the bad and the ugly because we’re never afraid to put our money where our mouth is.

Fantasy MVP

Those receiving votes: Calvin Johnson; Aaron Rodgers; Tom Brady; LeSean McCoy

Best Choice – Calvin Johnson, WR DET

It was pretty easy to choose Aaron Rodgers.  After all, he was coming off a year where he threw for 4,643 yards, 45 touchdowns and just six interceptions. With all his weapons back, some expected a minor letdown, but nothing major – they got just that. Meanwhile, Johnson torched Jerry Rice’s all-time receiving record with 122 catches for 1,964 yards. Not bad.

Worst Choice: LeSean McCoy, RB PHI

McCoy was coming off a monster season where he put up over 1,600 total yards and scored twenty touchdowns. Unfortunately, the Eagles totally fell apart, McCoy got injured and Bryce Brown emerged as a possible future time share candidate. In the end, the 840 rushing yards and five total touchdowns killed many dynasty teams.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year

Those receiving votes: Russell Wilson; Robert Griffin III; Justin Blackmon; Kendall Wright; Andrew Luck

Best Choice: Russell Wilson, QB SEA

Well, you can’t say we don’t take our chances around here. Someone who won’t be named publicly (ahem), chose Wilson and subsequently said you have to “go big or go home.” Wilson rewarded that anonymous writer (ahem) with an electric rookie season that featured 3,118 passing yards, 489 rushing yards, 30 total touchdowns and just ten interceptions. I (I mean that mystery writer) felt Wilson had what it took to be a dynamic play maker, but nobody honestly saw this kind of a season coming.

Worst Choice: Kendall Wright, WR TEN

What I loved about the choices is that none of us took the easy road and picked Trent Richardson. In the end, Wright performed the worst of the candidates, but still looks nothing like a bust. On the season, Wright posted 64 catches for 626 yards and four touchdowns, showing he was worthy of a first round rookie pick. The only problem he had was the competition he faced in this category – the 2012 rookie class is going to be legendary.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player

Those receiving votes: Rob Gronkowski; DeMarco Murray; AJ Green; Jordy Nelson; Andre Johnson; Isaiah Pead; Ryan Mathews

Best Choice: Ryan Mathews, RB SD

Well, there were some pretty good choices (including a great prediction on Pead), but Mathews takes the cake. After being anointed as the “next,” he was a huge disappointment this season. At the beginning of the year, his owners could have never imagined him only putting up one touchdown and just over 700 rushing yards. He’s proven to have major injury risk and his yards per carry average sunk all the way down to 3.8. With a new coaching regime in town, it’s really tough to project the future for Mathews. What a buzzkill.

Worst Choice: AJ Green, WR CIN

The reason Green was selected wasn’t because he was perceived to be a bad player, but one of our writers felt he was simply being taken a tad too high in start-up drafts. After a dominant season that saw Green post a touchdown in nine consecutive games, the cat’s out of the bag.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player

Those receiving votes: Percy Harvin; Fred Davis; Aaron Hernandez; Josh Freeman; Kenny Britt; Steven Jackson; Matt Ryan

Best Choice: Steven Jackson, RB STL

Again, there were a lot of different selections that could win here, but Jackson was being given away for pennies in a lot of dynasty leagues last off-season. After all, the Rams had drafted Isaiah Pead and S-Jax was right on the cusp of the magic age of 30. Instead, Jackson posted his eighth straight 1,000 yard rushing season and added another 321 receiving yards to go along with a handful of scores. While he may indeed retire or move on from St. Louis, he gave his owners yet another solid year.

Worst Choice: Kenny Britt, WR TEN

His 45 catches, 589 yards and four touchdowns weren’t terrible, but in short, the same maturity issues are still very, very relevant. He may never be trusted at this point.

Fantasy Sleeper

Those receiving votes: Alfred Morris; Armon Binns; Rob Housler; LaVon Brazill; Alex Green; Kendall Hunter; Rod Streater 

Best Choice: Alfred Morris, RB WAS

This one wasn’t close. After being an afterthought in most rookie drafts, Morris exploded for 1,613 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. If not for Adrian Peterson having a monster season, he would have led the league in rushing. If he doesn’t play for Washington, he gets much more credit – I think he deserves it anyway and he’s squarely on my “buy list” if you have someone in your league who doesn’t believe he’ll stick.

Worst Choice: Armon Binns, WR CIN

Binns was a hot candidate to be the second option across from AJ Green. Instead, he had 24 catches for 277 yards and just one score. Oh yeah, and he was actually cut by the Bengals and picked up off the street by the Dolphins. Yikes!

Best Dynasty Buy

Those receiving votes: Jamaal Charles; Mike Williams; Greg Little; Mike Wallace; Jacquizz Rodgers; Chris Johnson; Matt Ryan

Best Choice: Mike Williams, WR TB

There were a ton of great choices here including Charles, Johnson and Ryan, but Williams could have been had for next to nothing in many leagues last off-season. After a monster rookie campaign, Williams had a down year in 2011, but much of that was simply because of his lack of scores (11 as a rookie and three as a second year player). Tampa Mike bounced back this year with 63 catches, 996 yards and nine touchdowns. While he’ll likely never be the WR1 many hoped, he still looks like he could be a decent WR2 with room to grow.

Worst Choice: Greg Little, WR CLE

I still haven’t really understood the hype that surrounds this guy, but at least it’s dying down now. After a decent rookie year where he posted 61 catches for 647 yards and two touchdowns, Little followed it up with 53 catches, 647 yards and four touchdowns in 2012. It certainly seems like Josh Gordon is the better talent in Cleveland and for the likely price you had to pay, Little wasn’t a great buy.

Best Dynasty Sell

Those receiving votes: Roddy White; DeMarco Murray; Evan Royster; Cam Newton; Doug Martin; Brandon Marshall; Andre Johnson

Best Choice: DeMarco Murray, RB DAL

For what you could have received, Murray is the pretty easy choice here since Ryan Mathews wasn’t listed. On the year, Murray posted 663 rushing yards and four touchdowns. He was good when he played, but he only performed in ten games. There are major concerns about his durability and he didn’t take the next step as so many hoped he would.

Worst Choice: Brandon Marshall, WR CHI

Marshall’s value was off the charts when he was reunited with Jay Cutler in Chicago. After all, when they played together in Denver, Marshall was a target monster. Many thought Marshall had little to no chance of putting up “Denver-like” numbers with the weather he’d have to play in and the offensive line giving Cutler little time to throw, but he proved he could in the end. You could say he had a decent year with 118 catches, 1,508 yards and 11 touchdowns. He didn’t put up “Denver-like” numbers – he was better.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year

Those receiving votes: Peyton Manning; Chris Johnson; Steve Smith (STL); Danny Amendola; Jamaal Charles; Peyton Hillis

Best Choice: Peyton Manning, QB DEN

It’s truly amazing what he was able to accomplish. Who else could take an entire year off, join a brand new team, then throw for 4,659 yards and 37 touchdowns, all while posting his second best quarterback rating of his career. What can you even compare that to? That would be like a policeman taking a year off and coming back as Robocop or Adrian Peterson taking a year off and coming back as, well, himself.

Worst Choice: Peyton Hillis, RB KC

We’ll just end the article there to protect this person’s identity.

So, who do you think some of the candidates will be next year for MVP, sleeper or comeback player of the year? Any thoughts on the best buys or sells in dynasty leagues? How about the most overrated or underrated players? Post your thoughts in the comments below.

Ken Kelly
8 Comments
0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
8 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
9 years ago

Funny.

9 years ago

Call me crazy, but I’m still on the Little bandwagon. For the past two years he’s been catching (well, or dropping) quacking ducks from Colt McCoy and Brandon Weeden. Not exactly Peyton Manning or Tom Brady there.

His rookie year actually compares favorably to Wright’s season this year, and I think Gordon’s presence is a good thing for Little. That combo is similar to what Tampa is doing coupling the game-breaker (V-Jax) with the intermediate threat (Williams).

No, Little will likely never be more than a low-end WR2, but now they have better offensive minds running the show there, with hopefully upgraded talent on the way. Only going into his 3rd year, I still like him as a solid buy/hold.

Chad Scott
Reply to  Eric Hardter
9 years ago

I agree with Eric. Little actually looked pretty good the second half of the season and kept his drops down. I usually love WRs going into their 3rd seasons- like Eric pointed out. As long as Gordon keeps developing, I think Little can do BIG things in a Norv Turner offense.

Reply to  Eric Hardter
9 years ago

I’m with you Eric/Chad. He’s the perfect example of a guy who (like Crabtree) leaves his owners snake-bitten.

He certainly needs to improve his concentration, but don’t forget this is a RB convert who hasn’t played a ton of WR and missed a year of football due to a suspension at UNC. He seemed to play more consistently at the end of last year.

Mark Rockwell
Reply to  Steve Wyremski
9 years ago

Shhh he’s in my next breakout article. Look at his drops a little closer…his focus is improving.

9 years ago

Boy was my call on Hillis a swing and a miss! I’ll own up to it though. We all get a few wrong from time to time. I do tend to get more right than wrong though!

Reply to  Ken Kelly
9 years ago

I’m a big boy. I can own up to a bad call. Thanks for the thought though! 🙂

I was dead on with lots of other ones. Brees being top QB, Ryan being top 7 QB, Peterson being top 5 RB, Dez being top 10 WR, Crabtree being top 20 WR, etc. It is good for me to completely miss on something like Hillis. It keeps me hungry!

To Top