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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) Which of these receivers has the best chance to be a long term fantasy WR1:  Denarius Moore, Eric Decker or Randall Cobb? Chris in Minneapolis

For my money this is Randall Cobb and it’s not close.  Of course, it’s answers like that which get me in trouble as I’ll now be labeled a “hater” on Denarius Moore and Eric Decker.  I’d love to own them as well, but Cobb is my first choice.

With respect to Cobb, he’s heavily involved in the passing game receiving approximately 38% of the targets in recent weeks.  Plus he’ll toss in some bonus rushing yards now and again.  He’s already producing as a low end WR1 and I believe he only continues to develop.  I’m actually attempting to acquire him in my primary league right now.  I suppose the risk with Cobb is that somehow Green Bay makes it work with Greg Jennings and he remains.  I see that as an outside chance at best.

Eric Decker and Denarius Moore both share the same risk – aging quarterbacks.  I’d have to think that without Peyton Manning, Decker’s value declines and the same for Moore and Carson Palmer.  I have a hard time imaging a scenario where Decker is in a preseason top-12 list with Brock Osweiler as the quarterback.

2.) I’m considering offering Dez Bryant  and Reggie Bush for Demaryius Thomas.  Fair offer?  – Jeff in South Jersey

I think it’s a nice offer.  Very balanced in my opinion.  My bet is if you ran a poll in the DLF Forum, you’d get a nearly split decision on this one.  Maybe people would say you’re overpaying.

If I received that offer it would hinge on Reggie Bush for me.  I actually just traded for him in a league where I think I have a reasonably competitive team for next year.  That’s the situation where I’d take a gamble that Bush continues to be a viable RB2 option with upside.  I’d be very hesitant to take him on in any other situation.

The recceivers are close for me but the edge goes to Demaryius Thomas.  He’s the lead dog on a team with Peyton in the pocket, so that’s good enough for me.  Bryant has come around of late which is great, but I need to see him hold it together for a few more weeks before he wins me over.

3.) Is CJ Spiller worth giving up DMC and Daryl Richardson?  Richardson in the Fisher system just seems to have upside appeal. – Allen in Maine

I’d put the brakes on anointing Daryl Richardson the heir apparent to Steven Jackson.

It’s easy to forget that St. Louis took Isaiah Pead in the second round.  I admit he’s been disappointing, but GMs and coaches are hesitant to throw in the towel too quickly on high draft picks.  I can almost guarantee that Fisher had a hand in every draft pick they made.  He’s not the type to sit idly by and let the GM run the show – just ask Floyd Reece!  My bet is Pead will get his chance.  If he looks good I could see a scenario where they continue to use Richardson as they have.  He’s been effective as a sort of change of pace guy who gets slightly more work than traditional change of pace guys.

As to the trade, I’d pull the trigger.  Those who follow me know that I’m a CJ Spiller guy and I’d be willing to forego the upside of Richardson to get the upgrade to a player I know I’ll start every week in 2013.  If you’ve owned DMC for a while you know the angst it causes.  I have him on one team and I regret having traded for him.  I don’t like to toss around the “injury prone” tag but it’s hard to ignore the number of missed games.

Maybe I’m delusional but I think Spiller is a lock to be in line-ups for the next three to five years.  He may never emerge as a true fantasy RB1, but we all want high upside RB2s.  Don’t we?

4.) I have Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton.  Been offered Ryan Mathews and Jonathan Stewart for Andy Dalton and Alex Green.  Consider it but also considering a counter asking for Jamaal Charles over Ryan Mathews.  Thoughts?  Keith in Tennessee

Being from Tennessee you’ll understand this comment – I’d be careful not to get “Dooley’d” here.  You better hurry up and accept that deal before the fantasy gods fire you as GM/coach of your team!

That offer is so ridiculously in your favor that I refuse to break it down.  I included the question simply because I wanted to caution people from “Looking a Gift Horse in the Mouth.”  If you don’t know that old phrase it basically means if something nice comes your way out of the blue, you best accept it without question and be grateful.  The idea of countering is simply to put a risk on an already excessively lopsided offer.

Finally, if your league has a veto process (which it shouldn’t), my bet is this won’t pass anyway.

5.) I have Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehilll, Jake Locker, Ryan Mathews, LeSean McCoy, Jonathan Stewart, Hakeem Nicks, Julio Jones, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, Brandon Lloyd and Greg Olsen. How can I improve my team?  I’m 5th highest in scoring yet have only two wins.  Amr in Normal, IL

Like the last question, I’m not going to answer this one directly.  If you want advice on tweaking your entire team, the best source is the DLF Forum.  In fact, if you’re a Premium Member and PM me I’ll give you a full breakdown Amr just because I’m short changing you with this answer.

This question brings up an interesting topic for this time of the fantasy season.  There are many of us (myself included) who have teams that grossly underperformed against expectations.  This can be a product of injuries, surprise drop offs in production (Matt Stafford I’m looking your way) or in this case the randomness of H2H fantasy.

You need to look at the fundamentals of your team, not your record.  Points scored are much, much more important than the fact that you only have two wins.  What’s your All Play winning percentage?  It’s a lot higher than .200, I’m sure.

We need to resist the temptation to panic and overreact to a disappointing season.  I understand the notion in redraft of “shaking things up” but that’s because you only need to live with that decision for a few weeks.  If you have a solid team that underperformed, so be it.  On the other side of the coin, if you have a mediocre team that got lucky, don’t be complacent.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

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Avery Beck
9 years ago

Bold Predictions for Turkey Day.

Broyles has more catches, yards, and touchdowns than Megatron or Andre Johnson.

Tony Romo throws 4+ TD’s with zero interceptions. RG3 has trouble doing much of anything.

Tom Brady throws 2+ touchdown passes to tight ends, even without Gronk. Stephen Hill has a nice game with 100+ yards.

Chris in Chuck
Reply to  Avery Beck
9 years ago

You need to take your crystal ball back to the store.
I know it’s Black Friday but you have no time to lose.

james farmer
Reply to  Chris in Chuck
9 years ago

Lol… Worst prediction ever!

Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

Tim, I bet you win every league you enter, great stuff.

VoiceofUnreason
9 years ago

Funny how people react to Spiller. He may never be a rb1? He’s a top 10 in PPR this year while splitting w/Jackson most games. Am I missing something?

VoiceofUnreason
Reply to  VoiceofUnreason
9 years ago

He’s actually ranked 6th in a non-PPR league I’m in. As someone who thought Bradshaw was a top 10 rb in the offseason, I’m not sure if you are worried about injury or what.

Keith Bowers
9 years ago

thanks for the help, I accepted the Matthews and Stewart offer, we are a 20 year old dynasty league, no veto process, everyone is on their own!!!!

Chris in Chuck
Reply to  Keith Bowers
9 years ago

Mine is 17 years old…
Did you guys keep score on papyrus?

Keith Bowers
Reply to  Chris in Chuck
9 years ago

we did for years, now the internet has taken over, progress I guess, but i miss the old days of mailing out the results on Tuesdays

David Lamson
9 years ago

This is really a question for the future. I have Josh Freeman & Russell Wilson and then have Colin Kaepernick on my practice squad. Assuming Kaepernick takes over the starting job I will have some nice leverage for trades come next season. This is a 16 team dynasty league. Am I possibly over valueing my 3 QB’s or should I be looking at getting extreme value for one of them?

Chris in Chuck
Reply to  David Lamson
9 years ago

Try to get value for Wilson this offseason.
If they don’t add better receivers in Seattle, you can easily roll with CK and JF.

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