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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) An owner is trying very hard to acquire Trent Richardson.  He has ALF, Bowe, Decker, Amendola and Rudolph that interest me.  What is reasonable to expect for Trent? Travis in Madison

The Sun, the Moon and the Stars.

In all seriousness, the entire list of players you mention wouldn’t be enough for me to give up Trent Richardson.  He will be in the mix for a top-5 start up selection next year along with the usual suspects.  That’s incredibly valuable.

Richardson and Doug Martin are doing basically what AJ Green did last year – coming in from day one and having fantasy relevance.  Think about the King’s ransom you’d have to give to get Green.  And because of positional value I’d argue that T.Rich should be more costly than Green.

I’m usually of the mind that no player on my team is off-limits for trade talks but it’s fairly hard to conceive of what you’d need to offer me to get T-Rich.  He hits the mark on every aspect – he’s a bell cow back, there is zero competition in Cleveland, he’s ultra-talented, he participates in the passing game and oh yeah he’s 21.

My advice would be to tell the other owner “Thanks but no thanks.”

2.) I’ve been offered Cruz/Woodhead for Leshoure/Hunter.  Seem like I’m giving up too much.  Yes/no?  – Galder in Bilbao Spain

I don’t know that it’s so clear that you’d be giving up too much.

Coming in to 2012, I was suspect of Victor Cruz.  I was worried that he might be a bit of a one hit wonder given the fluky nature of the plays that accumulated a lot of fantasy points in 2011.  I said numerous times that I felt he was a sell high.  I was wrong.

The last few weeks have been disappointing for Cruz, but I’m confident in putting that on Eli Manning not on Cruz.  Frankly, Hakeem Nicks has been terrible as well although PPR owners got bailed out this last week by sheer volume.  I really don’t know what’s wrong with Eli Manning nor do I know what a “dead arm” is.  But what I do know is when I watch the games he’s making bad decisions.  Maybe he has a “dead brain.”

Back to the trade at hand.

You’d easily be getting the best player in my opinion and you’d be giving up two players that hopefully aren’t weekly fantasy starters for most owners.  Neither Mikel Leshoure nor Kendall Hunter is a player that I covet or target in trades.  They’re fine, but nothing extremely special.  Both are guys that I’d be very happy to have as my RB4 but concerned to have as my RB3.  One of them will likely break out and become a viable RB2 but that’s arguably about on par with what Cruz is worth.

It probably comes down to team need.  If you want a top caliber every week WR, then do the deal.  If Cruz would just be a “nice to have” and might not be in your line-up every week, then I’d keep the RBs.  The good thing about RB depth is the injuries pile up and you end up surprised at times by who you’re starting – I’m looking at you Pierre Thomas!

3.) Was trading Gore for the certain 1.01 a good move?  And what is the 1.01 really worth anyway? – Eric in Pennsylvania

Absolutely.  Trading Gore for the 1.01 was a good move.  He’s a declining asset and it strikes me as odd that any owner would offer so much value for him.

Here’s the thing about the 1.01 this year.  It’s likely worth more in trade than it will be as a rookie selection.  I’m already on record as saying I think this draft class is quite weak.  One of our partners, Eric Dickens, has said he thinks the 1.01 in 2013 is basically equivalent to the 1.05 in 2012.  I think that’s about right.  What he means is if you use it to pick a rookie expect to get a player who is similar in value to say David Wilson, Justin Blackmon or Kendall Wright.  Not bad, but not T.Rich or AJ Green either.

My recommendation in your situation is to sit on the pick until May.  They say the only sure things in life are death and taxes, but I’m going to add rookie fever to the list.  Once people are engrossed in the NFL draft process – Kiper, McShay, the Combine, the draft itself – someone in your league will overvalue the 1.01 selection.  At that point you strike and try to get a weekly starter.  It’s too early to tell who that might be but if I was throwing darts in the dark I’d say you should be able to get a Stevie Johnson or Dwayne Bowe level guy without much trouble.  And it’s possible it could net you more.  We’ll know better in May.

4.) Would you trade Reggie Bush for Eric Decker?  Iker in Spain

Yes, I would.

I’m not confident at all in the Miami running situation.  They have a slew of RBs and that’s always problematic for fantasy owners.  It sort of smells like New Orleans to me where you have so much talent but the workload is spread such that none of them are particularly attractive to start.  The comparison ends there because the talent level of the Saints players far exceeds that of the Miami guys.

Eric Decker is a solid fantasy asset.  He carries the Lord Peyton risk – meaning I’m not sure what he’s worth after Peyton retires.  But who cares?  Right now he’s an every week starter who has frankly out produced Bush even in non-PPR!

I’d do the deal and I wouldn’t look back.  You’d be getting out of a declining value player in favor of a surefire two year starter.  Works for me!

5.) I’m on the cusp of clinching a playoff spot.  I’ve been offered Andre Johnson for my 2013 first.  Johnson would be in the mix as a starter for me, but not a lock.  Would you do the deal?  Glen in New Jersey

First off, I hope you avoided the worst of the storms.  I spent much of my youth in Cape May and was worried about all of you on the East Coast.  We were fortunate and our home there was spared, but I know others were not so lucky.  Fantasy Football is a good escape from reality for all of us.

As to your question, this is the great quandary of dynasty football.  Do you “go all in?”  There’s a mix of variables in the equation:

  • What’s a 2013 first from a playoff team really worth?
  • How often will you start Andre Johnson?
  • Will he produce sufficiently better than whomever you are benching to warrant giving up the pick?
  • Do you have the stomach to do this deal and then get knocked out of the playoffs in round one?  Because that could happen.

Most of those are questions only you can answer.  I’ll tell you that a playoff grade 2013 first isn’t worth a ton to me.  But I’ll also say that Andre isn’t what he once was.  I’m not sure it’s only about his age, I think it’s that Houston just doesn’t throw the ball that much.  They run their offense through Arian Foster and focus on defense.  Seems to be working for them too by the way.

Two weeks ago I traded a 2014 first for Dwayne Bowe on an expiring contract in my SC league.  Essentially I may end up having spent a first for a seven week rental (although I get his RFA rights).  I’m perfectly comfortable with that.  My team is 8-2, has the highest points scored and I have AJ Green, Nicks, Stevie Johnson and Sidney Rice.  But Bowe is much better injury insurance than Rice in my opinion and neither Nicks nor Johnson is the picture of health.  If I never need him that means my studs are all good to go – no complaints there.  If I need him – no regrets there.  At the end of the season I’ll know I did everything I could to win the championship.  I’ll sleep easy knowing that.  And there’s plenty of time to go get another 2014 first if I really want one.  Final point:  I’m surely starting Bowe this week as both Nicks and Rice are on bye.  Could be the win that clinches me the division and a week 14 bye – essentially two wins in one.

6.) When will the IDP rankings be updated? Jerrod in Texas

Note: I don’t rank for DLF, so I called on our partner Ken Moody to give us the scoop.

The rankings we offer reflect a variety of disciplines and philosophies regarding how dynasty rankings should be handled.  Not all rankers approach the ranking of players with the same perspective and therefore some of the folks doing the rankings simply don’t feel the need to update dynasty rankings as frequently as others.  We are working on some improvements to the ranking tools to improve the functionality to allow the reader the opportunity to exclude certain rankers from the results.  Until then, we will do our best to keep those rankings as updated as possible.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

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Cyrus Miller
9 years ago

I can’t believe people aren’t sure if they should trade Gore for the 1.01. Maybe I drastically undervalue Gore, but I wouldn’t even think twice.

As for Richardson, I knew all the hype going into the season but I traded him for Jimmy Graham, Bradford, a 1st and bumps up in the 2nd and 3rd round (such as, 2.03 bumped to 1.12, 3.09 to 3.06).

While Richardson is looking like a stud and I would be happy to have him, I considered Graham the x-factor that could make my team better. I have a number of RB’s who can score just below Richardson (and am scared of the AFC North defenses being 6/16 of the schedule) but having a TE who can put up 18+ points on a regular basis is golden.

We will see how it works out. Part of my thinking was that Bradford (who I have since traded for Locker) and Graham have longer careers, so they can be on my dynasty for longer than Richardson while producing. The other part was just the domination at TE, which I see as an edge that only the Gronk owner and I have (and Gonzalez for this year).

Although, pairing Richardson with Martin would have been really nice.

Dave
9 years ago

I’m rebuilding and in last place. 10 team dynasty ppr. I have only McCoy as rb. Wrs are Hakeem, Antonio brown, Cobb, Crabtree, Titus and broyles. I just traded roddy for Kendall hunter and vjax for Jacquizz. Trying to unload older wrs while they’re still worth something and get young rbs with age 30 vets ahead of them. Am I out of my mind? Cuz I’m being told that I am.

Chuck in Charleston
Reply to  Dave
9 years ago

Dave,
You should be getting a LOT more value Roddy White and Vincent Jackson. A LOT!!
Add draft picks for next year’s draft at least.

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  Dave
9 years ago

Roddy White has a lot of value still and will help you next year. Hunter for White is a joke, to be honest. Same with Vjax for Quizz.

Getting a 1st and Hunter and a 1st and Quizz would be a much more palatable trade.

Dave
Reply to  Cyrus Miller
9 years ago

I don’t know if I agree. Roddy is 31 and being outplayed on a consistent basis by Julio. Vjax (30 in jan) has been nothing but a yoyo. And sooner or later people are going to see the writing on the wall with these guys and you won’t be able to get near as much as you’d like. Obviously they will help next year, if not, I wouldn’t get anything for them. According to the dlf rankings, hunter is higher than gore and quizz is higher than turner. They have no competition in the backfield and that’s hard to come by these days. These guys are definitely the heirs (soon) and I believe their value is high in dynasty terms. I think it’s time to sell high on roddy and vjax if I’m in rebuilding mode cuz I ain’t winning anything next year even with those guys. I think now I’ve got a real young team with tremendous upside that I won’t have to tinker with too much for a while. I don’t know but that’s what I shoot for in dynasty.

BigCSR
Reply to  Dave
9 years ago

Dude, Roddy just turned 31 two weeks ago….. And he is not being out performed by Julio. Bottom line is that you could have and should have gotten more in return. I dont blame you for going young, but you undersold your guys.

Chuck in Charleston
Reply to  Dave
9 years ago

Dave,
Don’t feel attacked. Listen to what we’re telling you and swallow your pride. Both the big, tough, veteran receivers you traded for undersized RBs are producing in scoring offenses. Those small RBs are complimentary pieces who are unlikely to score consistently well. They have upside, maybe. At best. But they’re more likely teases han RB3s.

Dave
Reply to  Chuck in Charleston
9 years ago

No pride here, honest, I’m just trying to make my point. You’re most likely right. I def know its a risky move. I feel the risk is somewhat offset by the wrs I have coming up. I do have a weakness for youth. I never feel attacked around here and I def want your input and can handle the heat. That’s why I post.

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  Dave
9 years ago

I completely see your point about trading White before its too late. I actually traded him in one rebuilding team going into this season, but that is because I expected Julio to drastically outperform White, and so far White has been the better WR.

Still, I got a backup RB and a 1st round pick, and I was criticized for selling him low. You traded for just the backup RB.

White and Vjax will be good for the next 2 years at least. There will always be a team in need who will pay more if you wait. It isn’t like White is Tony Gonzalez, who intends to retire.

Also, I never trade much for guys like Hunter and Quizz. If you like them and draft them, thats fine– but you are expecting them to become the starting RB when Gore/Turner are ineffective. My experience is that smallish guys like that are useful in a RBBC but when the franchise back gets replaced, they go sign someone else or draft someone else. If the smaller back isn’t in a J. Charles like situation where he is clearly more talented but not getting the playing time, I don’t expect much.

Mike D
Reply to  Dave
9 years ago

Is this the same Dave that told me last week he’d rip a guy like me off for McCoy? Hilarious. That is god-awful, chief.

Dave
Reply to  Mike D
9 years ago

I bet that felt sooo good mike. I’m taking down names and we’ll see where this trade goes in the future. When roddy and vjax are worth half as much 2 years from now and quizz and hunter are worth twice as much (if not more) then I gotta pile of crow for all of you. (And mike, when McCoy puts up his “fluke” numbers again, I’ll have an extra helping for you) Luckily I’m a patient man. If it doesn’t work out, oh well, I had to do something, sitn at the bottom and that was the best option. Trades are hard to come by in my league and nobody jumped at less. We only have 9 bench spots in an idp dynasty. It’s crazy.

Mike D
Reply to  Dave
9 years ago

It did a little. You can’t say you’d rip someone off then admit to these trades. But, kidding aside, I can almost in some weird way see what you’re doing with the Roddy deal, but the Quizz/VJax one is bad. Quizz will never be a runner, at best you hope he takes on a Sproles role, and VJax has a lot of really good years left. And I maintain what I said about McCoy…very good player, but last year was a fluke. I’ve watched almost every down this year, and I get that Vick stunk and the line has issues, but even when he got into open space I didn’t see the same burst or acceleration from last year. I finally did get him off my team in a deal where I got Jamal Charles back.

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  Dave
9 years ago

But couple of things…

1- 2 years from now? That means that you could have waited and traded them for almost full price NEXT year.

2- Even if what you predict does come true 2 years from now, our point is you could have gotten more value while doing the same trade. If I don’t get a certain amount of value, I refuse to trade. White for Hunter and 1st is almost identical to a trade I made this year.

3- With such small benches, I wouldn’t want two prospects who could take two years to be useful.

Lewis Caster
9 years ago

You got robbed Dave, sorry man

JT
9 years ago

Pulled this trade off a few weeks ago:

Sent:

Gore
V. Davis
M. Turner

Got back:

D. McFadden
T. Richardson

Then a few weeks later to a different guy

Sent:

A. Johnson
M. Bush

Got back:

G. Jennings

And at the beginning of the season I fell into this trade:

Sent:

D. Brown
D. Amendola

Got back:

Gore
K. Britt

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  JT
9 years ago

Anyone who would trade Richardson for Gore, Turner and Davis is an idiot. Anyone who would trade McFadden AND Richardson should not be in a dynasty league.

Ariakis S
9 years ago

You could have received a #1 pick (or more) to both trades and he still would have jumped on it.

Ariakis S
9 years ago

RE: Dave.

Kevin Delaney
9 years ago

sorry – posted this elsewhere but probably better suited here –

QBs – peyton manning , ryan Fitzpatrick , nick foles
RBs – AP , doug martin , alfred morris , daniel Thomas , joique bell , lamichael james
WRs – stevie Johnson , denarious moore , antonio brown , josh Gordon ,ty Hilton , Vincent brown ,aj Jenkins
TEs – rob gronkowski , coby fleener

my team is undefeated and looking to the future I am eager to be patient and let this roster develop without replacing with more rookie draft picks in a 2013 draft that seems to be not particularly strong
however I feel I need an upgrade at wr to win now rolling into the playoffs
Would my making an offer of 3 draft picks next year ( one first rd (#12) and two second rds (#22 and #24)for randall cobb make sense or is it better to roll into the draft and see what happens or perhaps trade those picks out for corresponding picks in 2014

Cyrus Miller
9 years ago

I am surprised your team is undefeated, to be honest. You need WR’s. Good team overall, but definitely not a powerhouse in future years.

I would consider trading any of your backup RB (read, not AP, Martin or Morris) for an upgrade at WR or backup QB. I would be willing to offer a first as part of the deal.

The trade for Cobb seems fair– late first round and two late seconds. I think it would cost at least that to make the other owner consent to it. I know some who would call that a steal, I know others who think you would be paying “market price” for a guy that is coming off of an amazing 4 week stretch… we don’t know.

I would probably do it, as it helps you this year and Cobb is super young and will help you next. Maybe start lower with just the first and the later second, then offer James or Thomas before upping the offer to the 2nd.

This year lacks top end talent, but the rest of the class has similar talent and it will come down to opportunity and taking advantage of it. A late second is just as good as a late first in my mind, except that you don’t get first dibs on who you think will put it together.

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Cyrus Miller
9 years ago

Cyrus..are you talking about the old sensei??

I gave up a first, a second, Kyle Rudolph, and Ronnie Hillman. Sometimes you have to overpay. My league is a ppr return league, i believe Cobb is the wr3. There is no dishonor in knowing that you did everything in your power to win your league, even if it means mortgaging your future a bit.

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

Come on man, read the post directly above mine. That was who I was replying to– you hadn’t even posted here yet :p

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