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Dynasty Decisions 2012: Best Dynasty Sell Candidate

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that our next Presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 6th.  In the spirit of this upcoming event, DLF presents Dynasty Decisions 2012.  In this five-part series, several of our writers will analyze pertinent fantasy questions, and “campaign” for their various answers.

In part three of this series, we want to know, “Who do you consider to be the best dynasty sell?”  Read on to see which players have been “nominated!”  If you’re swayed by a particular argument, vote in the corresponding poll on the home page.  If you’d like to nominate your own choice, tell us who and why in the comments section.

Let’s see what our writers and you have to say!

Alfred Morris, RB WAS

He’s currently performing as a top ten running back and he’s a rookie.  His dynasty league value will never be as high as it is right now.  If you own Alfred Morris, I implore you to at least dangle him out there in your league as trade bait because if someone’s willing to offer a king’s ransom (some combination of proven commodities, prospects and draft picks), you need to bite.

After all, there aren’t too many things (maybe just 50) a fantasy football owner hates more than Mike Shanahan, so if you think the proverbial old dog can learn a new trick, you’re fooling yourself.  Further, as if the notion of being held hostage by the fantasy devil himself isn’t reason enough, I’m also highly skeptical that Morris’ bowling-ball running style can hold up at the NFL level for very long.

-Jeff Beran

Reggie Wayne, WR IND

The most obvious aspect of this sell is the age factor, so let’s just get that out of the way.  As Wayne will turn 34 years old this month, he is well over that speculative “30 hump” that dynasty owners quell over.  While receivers have shown that they can produce into their thirties, he is certainly flirting with dangerous territory.

Let’s look beyond the aging dilemma for a moment and delve into the numbers.  Over the last eight years, Wayne has averaged 90 receptions, 1,226 yards receiving and nearly eight touchdowns per season.  You could not ask for a more consistently high producing player in dynasty leagues.  Those averages are spectacular, and even so he is well out-producing them so far this year.  Following week seven, Wayne is on pace for career highs in receptions (125) and receiving yards (1,776).  He has started the season producing as the fifth best wide receiver in PPR leagues, however each of the higher ranked players have played at least one more game due to bye week discrepancies.

With such heavy usage and astronomical production thus far, it is highly likely that his numbers will taper off down the stretch.  In the future, does Reggie Wayne have the potential to continue producing fantasy worthy statistics?  Yes, but at 34 years old, asking for him to keep pace for career highs and carry that into next season would defy the laws of aging in athletics as we know it.  Reggie Wayne’s value will never again be as high as it is right now.  He’s producing better than he ever has in his illustrious career and he’s not getting any younger.  The difficulty for him to continue producing at this level suggests it is wise to trade him now.  Any normal drop in production would most likely be attributed to his age and significantly reduce his value.

The trick is that Reggie Wayne’s age is no secret.  You need to find someone who can put his last remaining years to good use because following a trade, Wayne will most likely find his final resting place in your dynasty league.  Now is the time to find a contender in your league and unload him for some draft picks or perhaps one of those second or third year players on the verge of breaking out.  Time is of the essence.

-Chris Rohrer

Arian Foster, RB HOU

In today’s two-party system, you’ll undoubtedly be pressured to consider the Best Dynasty Sell in terms of either the “old player still producing” or “the declining player who just had a big game.”  Well I’ve never been a fan of the two-party system, so I’m proposing an outside-the-box solution here:  the speculative sell.  I’m referring to a player who is still producing at a high level, but might surprisingly be at the peak of his trade value.

The player I’m referring to here is Houston running back Arian Foster.  Yes, it’s true that Foster is considered to be squarely in the middle of his prime and arguably the top running back in fantasy football.  However, there are warning signs he will embark on a steady decline sooner rather than later.

Foster already has 659 rushing yards through seven games, but has turned into more of a volume runner, averaging merely 3.9 yards per carry.  Doing the math, this means Foster has already received 168 carries this year, or 24 carries per game.  Extrapolated to sixteen games, this would add up to a whopping 384 carries, which doesn’t even take into account his two receptions per game, or the fact that the Texans will likely continue to play into the postseason.

One way or the other, something will have to give.  The Texans can continue to run Foster into the ground, risking the chance he’ll succumb to the very real “Curse of 370.”  The alternative is to give fellow running back Ben Tate more carries, which could markedly diminish Foster’s short-term value.  Considering these possibilities, and the fact that Foster currently commands a fortune in the dynasty trade market, I suggest voting “third-party” here.  Arian Foster is the Best Dynasty Sell.

-Eric Hardter

Robert Griffin III, QB WASH

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a piece outlining reasons why dynasty players should sell high on one of football’s brightest up-and-coming stars. Since that time, that young star has continued to put up incredible numbers and dazzle any audience he seems to be given. I, however, will not be flip-flopping, waffling, wavering or whatever you would like to call it; the best dynasty sell is still Robert Griffin III.

I say this, as I always do, with an asterisk. If this is your team’s year to go for the title and RGIII is an important piece in you going for it, then by all means, keep him and try to ride him to victory. If you are one of the many teams, however, that falls into one of the two categories of 1) this is not your team’s year to win or 2) you have a different, viable option at quarterback, the SELL SELL SELL!

As I mentioned earlier, I recently wrote an article advocating the selling of Griffin. In the article, Griffin’s young career is compared to the early career of another scrambling quarterback by the name of Michael Vick. The following is an excerpt from that story explaining the main reason to sell Griffin while his stock is probably as high as it will ever be:  his injury risk.

“At 6’2” 217 lbs., Griffin outweighs the 6’0” 215 lbs. of Vick by a whopping two pounds—neither one of them is big enough to take all of the hits to which they frequently expose themselves. While there is always a chance that it was a fluke, it cannot be ignored that it didn’t even take a full five games for Griffin to experience a hit that was enough to knock him out of a game. Just like with Vick, Griffin’s tendency to tuck and run and his nature to tend to neglect to slide will always keep him in harm’s way. Until Griffin learns to be a little more conservative with his rushing, he will always be a risk for dynasty owners to invest for the long-term.”

If it is acceptable to say that Vick has proven to be an injury risk, then it is only logical to believe that Griffin will be a substantial risk for his entire career as well. I believe selling Griffin off and bringing in multiple high-level players in return is the best way to go. Someone in every league will be willing to sell the farm to get their hands on RGIII—find that someone in your league and fortify the rest of your starting lineup with talent by selling.

-Corey Mauer

Wes Welker, WR NE

The NFL’s leader in receptions and yards through week seven has sure taken a strange road to get there. Following a surprisingly public offseason contract dispute that contradicts the “Patriot Way,” Wes Welker was officially listed below Julian Edelman on the team’s depth chart early on. A 3-catch, 14-yard performance in the opener was an ominous start, though it was followed by four consecutive games with increasing receptions and a return to elite status in PPR leagues.

So why sell?

Since the beginning of the 2011 season, Welker has been limited due to neck, rib, knee, and ankle injuries. For a 31 year old receiver who gets hit (a lot), even if he hasn’t missed much time due to injury, I see it catching up to him quickly. This isn’t even to mention that when fully healthy there are many other mouths to feed in New England, particularly if the Patriots are looking at life after Wes and want to see what they have in Edelman.

Welker’s value isn’t going to get higher than it is right now, so if it makes sense for your team (you’re getting a solid receiver as part of the return, you have one on your team already, or you’re already in rebuilding more) get what you can for him.

-Jaron Foster

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brian
9 years ago

This entire series is embarrassing and makes me question why I continue to read articles on this site. I’m going back to the forum.

Scott
Reply to  brian
9 years ago

how insightful

Geoff
Reply to  brian
9 years ago

This comment is the exact reason why a lot of long time members have left this site, and especially the forums.

Admin
Reply to  brian
9 years ago

Brian, I’m curious why you say that. What players above do you disagree on and why?

brian
Reply to  Eric Dickens
9 years ago

Not a problem.

This article is NOT insightful. That’s my problem with it. This is something I expect from Matthew Berry, not DLF.

Reggie Wayne a sell high? OF COURSE HE IS. He’s almost 34 years old. This doesn’t offer any insight or offer a new perspective on anything. Sell a 34 year old WR while he is on a hot streak? Ok.

The comments RE Wes Welker aren’t that much different. He’s unlikely to return to NE and if he does, he’s also aging. Of course he is a sell (unless you are competing, much like Wayne).

A Shanny RB a sell while he is producing? Really? SMH. What a unique thought.

I DO appreciate the takes on Arian Foster and RG3. That’s what I want to see when I go to DLF. I want to read something that your average dynasty player hasn’t thought about or something that goes against popular thinking. I want to be stimulated to think about something in a different way.

I don’t want to come on here and read that Reggie Wayne is a sell high and AJ Green is a a buy. It makes me cringe. What’s next? Don’t draft a kicker before the last 2 rounds? I’m sorry for being facetious, but I don’t believe this article and the series in general is a genuine reflection of what this site is capable of. I feel like some content is pumped out just to keep the site ‘fresh’ while in the past, more thought was put into each article.

/end rant.

Matt Wertz
Reply to  brian
9 years ago

Matthew Berry makes more money in fantasy land than anyone. End of story.

Scott
Reply to  brian
9 years ago

Clearly you have missed the whole point of the series that the DLF guys just explained.

Sounds like you’ll get that in the Premium section, this is a bunch of fun articles for the election tomorrow

hunter
Reply to  Scott
9 years ago

*FACEPALM*
  Wertz- Since when does making more money in fantasy than anyone else = good writing? Matthew Berry caters to people who know nothing about fantasy football, or at the very least, know nothing about dynasty football. Being like Berry is fail. If we want to read berry, we can go to espn

@Scott- I don’t think he missed the point at all. Someone ‘campaigning’ for wayne as a sell high is like ‘campaigning’ that we should continue to breathe air. This is just a filler piece and I agree with him… DLF can do better

Matt Wertz
Reply to  Scott
9 years ago

Get a life, sounds like you r jealous.

Matt Wertz
Reply to  Scott
9 years ago

Espn has way more insight and knowledge than this sight, no offense

GM
Reply to  brian
9 years ago

If I may bring a different perspective to a point already made: Matthew Berry is entertaining. I read him because he is humorous, outrageous or makes me think of a player in a different light, even I personally would never draft to the extremes he suggests.

This series if articles contained none of those qualities. It’s simply a crude attemot at the hyperbole that Berry pulls off. Telling me that AJ Green, Calvin, ARod and Ray Rice are players you’d buy is like telling me you want to hit the lottery. It’s slap-in-your-face obvious, boring and not at all humorous.

Second, if the point made here is “go get the premium content if you want substance..”. Well this does quite little to instill confidence in me that the articles would be much better. Elaborating more, your podcast makes me want to rip my credit card out everytime I listen, while reading some of these articles always makes me slide it back in. Here’s a business plan for you from someone who knows: Make the content here so good that I’ll piss myself thinking about what I’m missing in the paid area.

And please focus on content, statistics, mathematical trends and analysis. Tell me something I don’t know. Then you’ll have me hooked.

Raymond
9 years ago

I dont really understand seelling RG3. Its true his weight and style of play can lead to an injury but his upside is far to great IMO to sell. RG3 brings just too much to the table to sell at this point i say ride things out he can only get better and will put up solid numbers for the next ten years.

Reply to  Raymond
9 years ago

When I say RG3 is a great sell right now, it comes with a few stipulations, the first of which being you have to get a great deal in return for him (which I believe is very achievable right now). In addition to getting a lot in return for RG3, those selling him should also have a viable second choice for their team’s quarterback (if your team does not, trying to win with Griffin is a good move).

Basically, I don’t see RG3’s value getting any higher than it is right now, so why not test the market with him if your team is in a position to do so?

Like you said, RG3 brings a lot to the table, but the injury risk a scrambling QB carries with him is very real. That being said, if I can bring in a great haul for him, I would not hesitate to pull the trigger on that deal.

Admin
9 years ago

I do my best not to chime in often on the article comments, but there are a few things I’d like to address in regards to this series.

1.) The entire premise of the article series is to create a debate among our community. Of course you’re not going to agree with some of the selections and that’s the point. The hope was to generate some discussion about who you’d like to buy or sell, who you think could be the MVP, etc. This isn’t intended to be a guidebook or road map for your dynasty team. Debates are supposed to fun and have lots of different opinions. We had lots of REASONS behind the “buys,” “sells,” etc. in hopes to generate some good discussion about why you’d agree or disagree. We didn’t play it safe for a reason.

2.) We have a policy at DLF NOT to delete comments that come in unless they’re incredibly inflammatory or degrading. Trust me, it’s a policy we hold dear because we’ve always valued the collective opinions of everyone. It’s a policy that’s hard to adhere to often, but we’ve done it because we always stand behind our work.

3.) My sincere hope is that the community or any individual would never stray from the site because of reader comments they see. The forum and the site is very, VERY difficult to manage on its own. We’ve been working extremely hard (I put in 12 hour days almost every weekday with my day job and to edit, post, select images and help with ideas for future articles), plus late nights every weekend and that’s just me. We promised to provide tons of content on both the free and premium site and have done just that. We’ve posted 287 articles since August 1st, which is a tremendous amount of work. I’d hate to see that lost because you don’t agree with a comment or two. That would be extremely disheartening for us.

I’d invite everyone to use this series as it’s intended – to spark discussion. This wasn’t meant for these five writers to play it safe – they chose controversial players for a reason and that was to get the community talking about pros and cons.

If this (or any series) strays you from the site, that’s on me as the Manager of content, but I’d still think you’d find a high percentage of those 287 other articles pretty helpful.

Thanks to everyone for your support and we’ll continue churning out the best dynasty content out there.

brian
Reply to  Ken Kelly
9 years ago

I appreciate the response. I should have explained myself in my initial comment and I appreciate you not deleting it. It appears to have sparked genuine discussion among the readership.

My last observation is that while I appreciate the quantity of content being produced, I do believe that the quality of some of those pieces isn’t on par with what I expect from DLF. That is what is frustrating. I know the pressures involved in putting out new content to ensure the clicks come in, but high quality on every piece beats high quantity every day of the week.

I do appreciate the updates and the hard work and long hours put into the site. If I didn’t care, I wouldn’t take the time to comment on the articles. I just want to see it get better and I’ll continue to post, but do so in a more productive manner.

rich cicack
9 years ago

I enjoy the articles, but don’t always agree with the opinions from the writers. As a dynasty owner it is my responsibility to read alot of different views and make my own opinion from what’s presented and what I see on the field. Keep up the great work guys.

9 years ago

I like this series and appreciate the content provided. I think the articles above should stimulate discussion for sure. I definitely appreciate DLF, and it helps me become a much better dynasty player. I know it takes a lot of work to run a site like this, and I appreciate efforts of the DLF staff in doing so. I’ve read content on other well known sites that offer far less insight. Not to trash Matthew Berry, but I just don’t find most of his stuff helpful. It might be entertaining in some way, but the content itself is not up to par, IMO. I’m just glad DLF exists for dynasty players who want something more out of online resources for guidance and knowledge. If I had to rely on Matthew Berry’s schtick I would lose every year. Thanks to DLF for your efforts! I think the majority of your audience appreciates your site and authors.

9 years ago

Here are my thoughts on the above players:

1. Alfred Morris: I agree he is a sell now. I read that Shanahan wants to evaluate all players on his team in some cryptic way. Does that mean Evan Royster gets more time? Maybe. Maybe not. But if I could move Morris in a deal for Jammal Charles, CJ Spiller or even Jonathan Stewart, I would give it some thought.

2. Reggie Wayne: I agree he is a sell now. However, given his age, he will be a tough sell. Whomever owns him will probably want more than any owner is willing to give. Would a contender give up a first round pick for Wayne? I’m not so sure. Would a contender give up Eric Decker, Mike Wallace or even Miles Austin for Wayne? I doubt it. It’s tough to deal players like Wayne because there will be a large gap in perceived value between owners and buyers, solely because of his age.

3. Arian Foster: I’m not so sure I’d sell him right now. Running backs are a scarce commodity, and especially so RBs in a Houston zone blocking system that produces slot machine numbers. Adrian Peterson has proven that stud RBs can last longer than expected. I think Foster has 2-3+ years left of elite production, and who really looks past 3 years in dynasty? Unless an owner offers a motherload of players/picks, I wouldn’t actively move Foster.

4. RG3: I wouldn’t move RG3. He seems to be a very bright and yet extremely athletic talent. Injuries are very hard to predict. I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion that RG3 will be any more injury prone than other players on the field. If running QBs were really more prone to injuries, then why aren’t running backs subject to the same criteria? RG3 is 6’2” 223 lbs, so he’s not exactly small. If Lesean McCoy can play at a high level and take more abuse than any QB, yet be smaller in stature than RG3, why are we all so concerned about RG3 staying healthy? RG3 just needs to avoid taking big hits, just like any other running back like McCoy or even Foster. I think the idea that running QBs are more prone to injury is greatly exaggerated, IMO.

5. Wes Welker: Definitely a sell high candidate. It wouldn’t shock me at all if New England lets him walk next year. Plus, Tom Brady will be 36 next year, and his time is soon to expire in the NFL. I think the common sentiment is that Brady will last 2-3 years, and dismiss his age as a factor. Reality is, anything past age 35 for an NFL player, even a QB, is a bonus. If Brady retires, or declines in performance, that will impact Welker. Or, if Welker leaves as a free agent, his value stands a good chance of plummeting. Either way, I’d move him if possible. Thing is, if you are in a league with savvy owners, this will be common knowledge, so it may be hard to do, in reality.

Reply to  Eric Hardter
9 years ago

I see your point. But, if you throw out the GB this year, in which Foster averaged 1.7 YPC, his YPC is 4.2, and that’s not bad considering the volume of carries he gets. Foster hasn’t even completed his fourth season yet, and I think it is premature to think that Foster’s productivity will inevitably decline. RBs are very scarce, and Foster is a rare breed as a bell-cow on one of the best Olines in the NFL. Look at AP. He has had 6 years of high-level production, and doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Steven Jackson had 8 years of steady production until the wheels fell off this year. I think Foster should have at least 2-3 years of elite production left. Plus, if RBs with only three full years as a starter are deemed too old for fantasy football, then finding rookies who produce like Muscle Hamster is quintessential, but we know that doesn’t come around very often. Furthermore, the next great young RBs don’t always pan out. Demarco Murray is injured yet again. Youth is sometimes overrated in dynasty. Lastly, I don’t really get the notion that Foster should only be traded for a huge haul. That may be true, but the same could be said about every player on a fantasy roster. It doesn’t add up to say Foster should only be sold if a large return is guaranteed. If I could get a large return for Doug Martin, I’d think about dealing him right now. It sounds great to trade RBs before their decline, but if you are not careful, you might end up with a team that has no decent RBs and that can paralyze any fantasy roster.

Matt Giles
9 years ago

Thoughts on the main difference between Vick and RG3……Completion Percentage. Vick owns a career completion percentage of 56%, including 44%, 54%, and 50% in his first 3 years. Of course it’s a much smaller sample, but RG3 is currently sitting at almost 66% as a rookie with a pretty suspect receiving corps. I’m buying on RG3.

Totally agree on Welker and Gore from the previous article. Actively trying to trade both…..

Danton Goulet
9 years ago

This was a great article! While I see Brians original point, I am glad that he clarified what he was trying to say because my first thought was ‘What a $%#*!.
No offense either Brian.
I take what I call the ‘grocery store approach’ There is always going to be alot of information to choose from on this site and I just take what I need from each article. I read all off them but if the material doesn’t fully apply to me I just glimpse through it for general knowledge sakes, but if it does fully apply to me I will take more time to fully dissect the article.
I find that all the articles are insightful,depending on your team and knowledge of Dynasty, so just thought I would chime in with my opinion.
Thanks to all the writers who take time out of their busy lives to write and answer my twitter questions!

scott
9 years ago

Thx for the good read. I was able to move foster for Daryl Richardson and Reggie Wayne. Really stoked after reading these articles. I know i made the right call now. Thx guyz

brian
Reply to  scott
9 years ago

WOW…

see what you’ve done?

robertdhenley
Reply to  scott
9 years ago

this amde me laugh

Rob
9 years ago

I think another point that may be missed in Brian’s initial comment is that the playing field is not always equal.

He dismisses the article as amateur or common sense. Well, the fact is that not everyone is a seasoned, Dynasty Player. Many folks new to dynasty may not even know the concept of “Buy Low, Sell High” and other dynasty nuances that are never a consideration in redraft/keeper formats, which are still the most popular formats by far.

So, not every article has to invent the wheel. Depending on your level of experience, you may or may not feel totally enlightened from every article, but chances are SOMEONE out there learns a bit of something from it.

Same could be said if an article was put out (as I’ve seen in the past)along the lines of Dynasty 101. There are always portions of every article that you can take something from and if you can truly say that you’ve taken nothing from an article (which would be hard to believe), then pat yourself on the back, consider yourself an expert on that topic, and feel free to begin submitting articles, so the rest of us can be enlightened by your expertise.

Jeff Haverlack
Reply to  Rob
9 years ago

As most would understand, or at least I hope would, we take great pride in our content here on DLF. Your point is the first thing I thought of when I started reading some of the negative feedback. We have a lot of first year dynasty players, as well as seasoned experts. I get many indidivual emails from new dynasty players that don’t feel comfortable commenting publicly because they don’t feel they know enough to do so … and who have told me personally that some of the advanced metrics and charts are way over their head. They appreciate the content geared toward the less experienced players.

As Ken said earlier, we take all criticism to heart and are very, very passionate about what we’re trying to accomplish. We try to have content that covers all range of knowledge, beginner to expert but don’t label the articles as such. If it’s overly basic in content or message, simply move on to the next would be my advice.

We do acknowledge it’s a very difficult balance to provide information for all skill levels, from the newest to the format to those that consider themselves “experts” and above what we deliver.

Matt Giles
9 years ago

Folowing up from my comment a few days ago. Was actively trying to trade both Welker and Gore. Ended up trading away Gore, Welker, Kendall Hunter, Kendall Wright, Josh Freeman, and a back-end 2013 1st for RG3, Marshawn Lynch, and Aaron Hernandez.

Pretty thrilled, but wanted to get thoughts? Have Brady at QB and needed a long term replacement.

8 years ago

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