Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that our next Presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 6th. In the spirit of this upcoming event, DLF presents Dynasty Decisions 2012. In this five-part series, several of our writers will analyze pertinent fantasy questions, and “campaign” for their various answers.
In part three of this series, we want to know, “Who do you consider to be the best dynasty sell?” Read on to see which players have been “nominated!” If you’re swayed by a particular argument, vote in the corresponding poll on the home page. If you’d like to nominate your own choice, tell us who and why in the comments section.
Let’s see what our writers and you have to say!
Alfred Morris, RB WAS
He’s currently performing as a top ten running back and he’s a rookie. His dynasty league value will never be as high as it is right now. If you own Alfred Morris, I implore you to at least dangle him out there in your league as trade bait because if someone’s willing to offer a king’s ransom (some combination of proven commodities, prospects and draft picks), you need to bite.
After all, there aren’t too many things (maybe just 50) a fantasy football owner hates more than Mike Shanahan, so if you think the proverbial old dog can learn a new trick, you’re fooling yourself. Further, as if the notion of being held hostage by the fantasy devil himself isn’t reason enough, I’m also highly skeptical that Morris’ bowling-ball running style can hold up at the NFL level for very long.
Reggie Wayne, WR IND
The most obvious aspect of this sell is the age factor, so let’s just get that out of the way. As Wayne will turn 34 years old this month, he is well over that speculative “30 hump” that dynasty owners quell over. While receivers have shown that they can produce into their thirties, he is certainly flirting with dangerous territory.
Let’s look beyond the aging dilemma for a moment and delve into the numbers. Over the last eight years, Wayne has averaged 90 receptions, 1,226 yards receiving and nearly eight touchdowns per season. You could not ask for a more consistently high producing player in dynasty leagues. Those averages are spectacular, and even so he is well out-producing them so far this year. Following week seven, Wayne is on pace for career highs in receptions (125) and receiving yards (1,776). He has started the season producing as the fifth best wide receiver in PPR leagues, however each of the higher ranked players have played at least one more game due to bye week discrepancies.
With such heavy usage and astronomical production thus far, it is highly likely that his numbers will taper off down the stretch. In the future, does Reggie Wayne have the potential to continue producing fantasy worthy statistics? Yes, but at 34 years old, asking for him to keep pace for career highs and carry that into next season would defy the laws of aging in athletics as we know it. Reggie Wayne’s value will never again be as high as it is right now. He’s producing better than he ever has in his illustrious career and he’s not getting any younger. The difficulty for him to continue producing at this level suggests it is wise to trade him now. Any normal drop in production would most likely be attributed to his age and significantly reduce his value.
The trick is that Reggie Wayne’s age is no secret. You need to find someone who can put his last remaining years to good use because following a trade, Wayne will most likely find his final resting place in your dynasty league. Now is the time to find a contender in your league and unload him for some draft picks or perhaps one of those second or third year players on the verge of breaking out. Time is of the essence.
Arian Foster, RB HOU
In today’s two-party system, you’ll undoubtedly be pressured to consider the Best Dynasty Sell in terms of either the “old player still producing” or “the declining player who just had a big game.” Well I’ve never been a fan of the two-party system, so I’m proposing an outside-the-box solution here: the speculative sell. I’m referring to a player who is still producing at a high level, but might surprisingly be at the peak of his trade value.
The player I’m referring to here is Houston running back Arian Foster. Yes, it’s true that Foster is considered to be squarely in the middle of his prime and arguably the top running back in fantasy football. However, there are warning signs he will embark on a steady decline sooner rather than later.
Foster already has 659 rushing yards through seven games, but has turned into more of a volume runner, averaging merely 3.9 yards per carry. Doing the math, this means Foster has already received 168 carries this year, or 24 carries per game. Extrapolated to sixteen games, this would add up to a whopping 384 carries, which doesn’t even take into account his two receptions per game, or the fact that the Texans will likely continue to play into the postseason.
One way or the other, something will have to give. The Texans can continue to run Foster into the ground, risking the chance he’ll succumb to the very real “Curse of 370.” The alternative is to give fellow running back Ben Tate more carries, which could markedly diminish Foster’s short-term value. Considering these possibilities, and the fact that Foster currently commands a fortune in the dynasty trade market, I suggest voting “third-party” here. Arian Foster is the Best Dynasty Sell.
Robert Griffin III, QB WASH
A couple weeks ago, I wrote a piece outlining reasons why dynasty players should sell high on one of football’s brightest up-and-coming stars. Since that time, that young star has continued to put up incredible numbers and dazzle any audience he seems to be given. I, however, will not be flip-flopping, waffling, wavering or whatever you would like to call it; the best dynasty sell is still Robert Griffin III.
I say this, as I always do, with an asterisk. If this is your team’s year to go for the title and RGIII is an important piece in you going for it, then by all means, keep him and try to ride him to victory. If you are one of the many teams, however, that falls into one of the two categories of 1) this is not your team’s year to win or 2) you have a different, viable option at quarterback, the SELL SELL SELL!
As I mentioned earlier, I recently wrote an article advocating the selling of Griffin. In the article, Griffin’s young career is compared to the early career of another scrambling quarterback by the name of Michael Vick. The following is an excerpt from that story explaining the main reason to sell Griffin while his stock is probably as high as it will ever be: his injury risk.
“At 6’2” 217 lbs., Griffin outweighs the 6’0” 215 lbs. of Vick by a whopping two pounds—neither one of them is big enough to take all of the hits to which they frequently expose themselves. While there is always a chance that it was a fluke, it cannot be ignored that it didn’t even take a full five games for Griffin to experience a hit that was enough to knock him out of a game. Just like with Vick, Griffin’s tendency to tuck and run and his nature to tend to neglect to slide will always keep him in harm’s way. Until Griffin learns to be a little more conservative with his rushing, he will always be a risk for dynasty owners to invest for the long-term.”
If it is acceptable to say that Vick has proven to be an injury risk, then it is only logical to believe that Griffin will be a substantial risk for his entire career as well. I believe selling Griffin off and bringing in multiple high-level players in return is the best way to go. Someone in every league will be willing to sell the farm to get their hands on RGIII—find that someone in your league and fortify the rest of your starting lineup with talent by selling.
Wes Welker, WR NE
The NFL’s leader in receptions and yards through week seven has sure taken a strange road to get there. Following a surprisingly public offseason contract dispute that contradicts the “Patriot Way,” Wes Welker was officially listed below Julian Edelman on the team’s depth chart early on. A 3-catch, 14-yard performance in the opener was an ominous start, though it was followed by four consecutive games with increasing receptions and a return to elite status in PPR leagues.
So why sell?
Since the beginning of the 2011 season, Welker has been limited due to neck, rib, knee, and ankle injuries. For a 31 year old receiver who gets hit (a lot), even if he hasn’t missed much time due to injury, I see it catching up to him quickly. This isn’t even to mention that when fully healthy there are many other mouths to feed in New England, particularly if the Patriots are looking at life after Wes and want to see what they have in Edelman.
Welker’s value isn’t going to get higher than it is right now, so if it makes sense for your team (you’re getting a solid receiver as part of the return, you have one on your team already, or you’re already in rebuilding more) get what you can for him.
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