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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) Who would you rather own CJ Spiller or Ben Tate? Anthony in Toronto

Although I’ve consistently said I’d rather own CJ Spiller, until recently that was not a consensus point of view.  Now I think most people would choose Spiller over Ben Tate by a decent margin.

With Spiller, we pretty much know at this point that if given the workload, he can be effective.  What we don’t know yet is whether, when healthy, he will be a flex player or a RB2 for the remainder of this year.  I’m of the belief that he will be very useful in fantasy even with only 15-18 touches per game.  And I expect he gets that going forward.

With Tate, the situation is a little less favorable.  It goes without saying that in the event of a Arian Foster injury, his value is sky high.  However, right now, he’s not getting the touches I would like for him.  In a blowout win over the Titans, he got all of five carries – this caps his short term value.

Many people point to Tate’s expiring contract and express hope for a change of scenery.  I’m not willing to pay much for that hope.  I was low on Tate coming in to the league and I continue to be low on him.  I’m not saying he hasn’t been successful in Houston, but I am concerned he is a product of the system.  His game is perfectly suited for the one-cut zone approach and the Texans have an excellent o-line.

It’s very possible that Tate emerges as a reliable fantasy option.  I just think that the chances are higher that Spiller does so given the set of facts we have today.  I wouldn’t mind owning Tate, I’d just rather own Spiller.

2.) I have Jimmy Graham and Dustin Keller.  Should I drop Keller for Jordan Cameron?  – Brian in Wilmington

This choice is fast upon you with the upcoming bye week for Jimmy Graham.  I hate making long term decisions around short term issues, but it’s nice to have a starting tight end!  So the short term answer is somewhat obvious.

The longer term is more complex and a matter of personal taste.  I don’t see Dustin Keller as having much upside.  The Jets are a mess, Mark Sanchez is regressing yet again, Tim Tebow isn’t the answer and Keller doesn’t have a history of putting up big numbers.  Keller is a slow and steady guy when healthy – a midrange TE2 who can usually be counted on not to give you a bagel.

Personally that doesn’t interest me much at all especially if I have an uber-stud every week starter like Graham.  You have the luxury of swinging for the fences at TE2.  Guys like Coby Fleener, Rob Housler, Jordan Cameron and even Taylor Thompson all are of interest to me.  Here’s the reality:  Cameron will likely outscore Keller in week six and then you’re never starting either of them again unless the unspeakably happens.  Why not go for it?  You have little to lose.

3.) Would you trade Darren Sproles, Lance Moore and a first for CJ?K and Donnie Avery? – Ryan from parts unknown

No.

I can’t see any reason to make this deal actually.  I’d rather own Darren Sproles than CJ?K and then the rest of the deal is just awful.  Maybe this is an attempt to get younger at RB?  If so, let’s not forget that CJ isn’t that young either.  He’s also taken the pounding of a bell-cow back while Sproles has played in a hybrid role.  It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Sproles has more long term fantasy value.

4.) Would you give up CJ Spiller and Andrew Hawkins for Greg Jennings and Michael Turner?  Brandon in Chicago

 

Probably not, but I can see why you might be tempted by it.

I expect Michael Turner to outscore CJ Spiller the rest of the way this season.  At any rate, he’s probably a little less risky.  But if you take him on, know that you are riding him to the grave – he is extremely hard to move in a dynasty league.

Clearly Greg Jennings has more value than Andrew Hawkins.  Heck, you picked Hawkins up off the waiver wire I’m sure and you’re getting actual value for him in this deal, but Jennings has some issues too.  He’s hurt and his contract is expiring.  I’ve said before that I expect he will be on a different team next year and the track record of stud receivers moving teams isn’t especially good.

I wouldn’t do this deal because I am a believer in Spiller.  If you think it’s a mirage and he isn’t what he appears to be, I suppose the safe move is to accept the deal, but remember Spiller was a top-10 pick in the NFL draft.  That means something.

5.) I currently have Harry Douglas and Steve Breaston as my WR2/3 in a 32 league.  Will either develop to be a reliable option? Royce in Plano

 

I’m very sorry for you.

I don’t think you have much hope at all.  Let’s dispense with Harry Douglas first.  He’s had his chances and he hasn’t ever done much with them.  He’s a journeyman receiver who will hang on in the league but never put up meaningful numbers.  In 12 team leagues, he’s waiver wire material.  Worse yet for you, he’s not going anywhere since he’s signed in Atlanta through 2016.  At least if he changed teams you might have received the “Robert Meachem bump” and sold him to an overly excited league-mate.

With Steve Breaston, you have a little more of a chance.  Of course he’s aging as well, but at least he’s a starting receiver in the NFL.  Additionally, I am notoriously low on Jon Baldwin, who I think is just as much of a knucklehead as anyone in the league.  Of course, Breaston’s issue is that he is on a weak team with an awful quarterback.  By the time the Chiefs can figure out what to do at quarterback, Breaston will hold very little dynasty value.

Unfortunately, I don’t have much good to say for you.  There are a number of solid receivers coming out in the 2013 NFL draft…

 

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

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Duck
9 years ago

I’m planning on dropping or trading Gates. A.Johnson, at end of yr, they’ve helped win 3 of past 4 championships in my 16 team league. Still have A.Brown-Pitt , D.Thomas-Den, J.Graham-NO for years to come. You said you don’t like J.Baldwin, I also have as future depth, R.Cobb-GB and L.Hankerson-Wash. Do you like there upside to slide into my lineup next year if I lose A.Johnson and Gates?

StevieMo
9 years ago

Love your site but seriously you guys should have a weekly ranking by position. The smartest dynasty guys on the net should be all over this each week.

Admin
Reply to  StevieMo
9 years ago

Steve, do you mean lineup rankings to help you decide who to start each week? Or dynasty player value rankings updated each week?

StevieMo
Reply to  Ken Moody
9 years ago

The former.

John
9 years ago

I drafted Iseiah Pead (I have Steven Jackson)and Vick ballard this year hoping they would be starters next year in my keeper leauge. I also drafted Coby Fleener. Would you hold on to these players?

JBlake
Reply to  John
9 years ago

How many keepers in your league? Fleener got 6 for 82 in Week 1. You can expect a lot more of that for this year and next, so definitely hold onto him.

Predicting breakout starting RBs for next year is extremely difficult. After the obvious TRich and DMartin, I would say Hillman has the best chance of this year’s rookies to start next year. Ballard has a chance, but only if Donald Brown falters this year. Pead is behind Daryl Richardson, so he should probably be on the waiver wire in a redraft/keeper league.

Ken Dogson
9 years ago

Harry Douglas could be valuable in a PPR league as a slot guy, but with White, Jones, and the HOF TE (I’m very tired and his name escapes me) on there every play he’s at best the 4th target. Not enough targets = no FF points.

Grant
9 years ago

You mention a group of 4 TEs (Fleener, Cameron, Thompson and Housler).

I think Fleener is heads and tails above the other 3. My question is where would you rank Dwayne Allen in amongst the other 3 mentioned?

SJ
9 years ago

“I expect Michael Turner to outscore CJ Spiller the rest of the way this season.”

Really? Could you please explain as I really do get this logic.

Spiller is a target in most every league, I would say. Unless you feel hes become a major injury risk or volume back over the past 2 weeks.

SJ
Reply to  SJ
9 years ago

*do not get

StevieMo
Reply to  SJ
9 years ago

Spiller will be in a time share with Fred Jackson and, to a lesser extent, Tashard Choice. I agree that Turner will outscore Spiller weeks 5-16.

Tim Quiroz
9 years ago

In a PPR league, should I drop CJ Spiller now and pick up Jahvid Best before his possible return in week 7? I have Forte, Sproles, and Mendenhall, but I did draft Spiller in a keeper round for 2013.

Matt Wertz
Reply to  Tim Quiroz
9 years ago

No, no, no, no, no.

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