As part of the premium content package, we’re unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL all spring and summer. This year, we also have a precursor to every team capsule, with more detail on one of our favorite pieces – the dynasty sleeper. We continue our alphabetical journey through the NFL with the New York Jets.
Generally, we list the players in our capsules more or less in descending order of the depth chart or descending order of fantasy value. I wasn’t entirely sure which quarterback to list first – that doesn’t speak well for the Jets NFL prospects or the fantasy prospects of Sanchez.
Sanchez is akin to a toxic asset in fantasy football. He’s being drafted after Tebow in start-ups, which is a reflection of people assuming that he won’t survive the season as the starting quarterback. The value play here may be to try to acquire both Tebow and Sanchez on the cheap and see what plays out.
For more on Sanchez, take a look at the Jets sleeper article.
For all his faults, fantasy players should hope that Tebow takes the starting job sooner rather than later. Most importantly, Tebow would elevate the value of the entire receiving corps. We’ll get to the receivers a little later, but I think the skill sets of both Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill are squandered with Sanchez at the helm.
If Tebow is solidly in the starting role, he becomes a low end QB1 option. His pass attempt numbers will be low, but he will augment that with a decent (and consistent) weekly rushing total. It’s amazing what just 30 or 40 yards of rushing can do for a quarterback. Down the stretch last year, Tebow put up better than average numbers – from the bye week through week 16 he averaged just shy of 20 PPG in a 6 pt/TD format. While not elite, those are certainly nice safety net numbers if you are backing up someone like Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers.
Whether starting or not, Tebow will be capping the upside of Shonn Greene by stealing some number of rushing touches near the goal line.
Greg McElroy and Matt Simms
Greg McElroy is reportedly a great guy and has been voted most likely to succeed in business after the NFL. Matt Simms couldn’t keep the starting job at Tennessee last year. That’s the University of Tennessee, not the Titans for those paying attention. He’ll be a camp casualty and even if he’s not, it doesn’t matter for dynasty.
Holmes has to be one of the most annoying players in fantasy football. Let’s count the ways:
- First: He’s a tease. In 2009, Holmes racked up nearly 1,250 yards, 80 receptions and five touchdowns – those are WR1 numbers. So, we know he can do it. Often you hear people talk about “potential,” a player’s “ceiling,” etc., and it’s all speculative. With Holmes it’s not – he really did that. It’s on the 2009 numbers that Holmes continues to carry fantasy value – it’s the promise. His actual 2010 and 2011 numbers make him borderline waiver wire material in shallow leagues. In fairness, he’s not solely to blame. The Jets offense (and Sanchez) are a lead anchor holding him back.
- Second: He’s a mal-content. The stories are well publicized, so if you are an NLF fan (which you must be if you’re reading this) you understand this. He’s at risk at any time to quit on the team or be put in the coach’s penalty box. Does it surprise anyone that he was one of the last Jets players to show up for camp?
- Third: He’s a suspension risk. Most of us remember that he was suspended for his first four games as a Jet under the league’s substance abuse program. Remember also that the trade occurred after the incident and the Steelers were reportedly prepared to cut him if need be. It takes a fair amount to push even a class organization to consider cutting you after putting up those gaudy 2009 numbers.
Oddly, Holmes is probably becoming a value once again. He’s being valued as a WR4 in start-ups, which sounds about right to me. He has some upside potential if Tebow takes the helm. Tebow can at least take advantage of Holmes’ ability to get downfield separation.
No matter what, Holmes will be touchdown dependent, making him a risky player to count on. The Jets offense simply is not engineered to produce a 1,000 yard receiver with or without Tebow.
The Jets rookie was much ballyhooed after his amazing Combine performance. Anyone who watched will recall his diving catch and his excellent measurables including a 4.30 forty time. We generally give a player a little boost in our rookie ranks if he’s in a position to play immediately (which Hill certainly is). Unfortunately, the opportunity for Hill requires him to play for the Jets.
There is probably no better example of a player who is going to have his fantasy value decimated by Mark Sanchez than Stephen Hill. Hill is a one trick pony – which is common for WRs coming out of Georgia Tech’s unique system. That doesn’t mean he can’t develop his route running ability, it just means if he’s going to have value right now it needs to be within his wheelhouse. I don’t trust Sanchez to be able to hit him on nine routes with any consistency. Sanchez threw 32 passes that were both outside the numbers and longer than twenty yards in 2011 – he completed six of them.
Hill isn’t the type of player I typically take in a rookie draft. He’s legitimately a late first rounder and in that range I like a little more safety in my pick. I’ll lean toward a guy like Coby Fleener who probably has a lower ceiling, but a higher floor. That said, I have no problem with people taking Hill because of the upside. And I hope for those of you who have him on your team that Tebow comes in as soon as possible.
It seems to me that Chaz Schilens has been on fantasy sleeper lists for the best part of my adult life. Of course that’s not the case, since he’s only been in the league since 2008 after being drafted in the middle of the seventh round by the Raiders.
Schilens joins the Jets as an UFA and they need him. After Holmes and Hill, this receiving group is atrocious. It’s frankly very difficult to know what the Jets are getting in Schilens. We need to see what he does in training camp and the preseason. He essentially missed all of 2010 with an injury and saw limited action in Oakland last year.
I find it nearly impossible to believe that the Jets offense can produce two fantasy relevant WRs, let alone three. I suspect neither Schilens nor Hill will grace the starting lineup of too many winning dynasty teams in 2012.
I’m honestly stunned that you haven’t skipped to the section on running backs at this point!
Kerley is a second year player who is in a good position to make the roster. Unfortunately, at the time of this article he’s suffering from a pulled hamstring and is not participating in training camp. That’s bad given that Rex Ryan has asserted that Kerley is struggling with the playbook.
Kerley probably doesn’t warrant even being on your “watch-list.”
All the Rest
The Jets currently have about ten more receivers in camp. These guys will battle it out to be on the 53 man roster. None of them deserves to be on your fantasy roster even if it too is 53 men deep!
Although for very different reasons, here’s another fantasy disappointment like Santonio Holmes.
He was a fairly high draft pick in the NFL and an even higher one in dynasty. Dynasty players salivated when Greene went to the Jets in 2009. All Jets had at the time was an aging Thomas Jones and Leon Washington who, while dynamic, can’t carry the load. Of course Thomas Jones went ahead and put up a fantasy season for the ages posting 1,400 rushing yards and 14 scores!
Oh, how things looked bright for Greene as he came in to 2010 as the RB1 on the depth chart. Jones was gone so all those yards and touchdowns just had to go to Greene, right? Wrong. A funny thing happened – some guy named LaDainian Tomlinson showed up. But he was old, so that shouldn’t matter he’d just give Greene a breather here and there, right? Wrong again! They split the load right down the middle rendering Greene worthless because he had no role in the passing game.
On to 2011, still LT and Greene, but now LT really was done. He played sparingly and left the meat of the duties to Greene. Greene put up decent (if somewhat average) numbers, posting about 1,050 yards and a healthy 4.2 YPC. Greene rewarded his dynasty owners with a pedestrian RB2 level season. Nothing to write home about, but we all need a RB2.
So what’s the outlook in 2012? I project him for almost identical stats to last year. He’s not going to win you any games, but he can be a key part of a solid dynasty contender. In all seriousness, he’s the Jet I’d want to own. Give me Greene over guys like Donald Brown, DeAngelo Williams or Jahvid Best any day.
You need to pay attention to McKnight.
He is a capable runner and a receiving threat as well. If anyone is going to challenge Greene, I expect it to be McKnight. The Jets have said several times this off-season that they are looking for more ways to incorporate him in to the offense. The hope would be that in his limited touches he flashes his skills and forces his way in to more and more playing time.
Chances are he’s being held in your league, but if not, go pick him up.
He was the sleeper darling of 2011 and turned around and spent the majority of the season on the inactive list. He’s not without talent, but it seems the Jets lack the confidence in him to give him a shot. You can only be holding so many prospects; there are probably better options at this point than Powell for a deep sleeper. Unfortunately, fantasy value is a combination of skill AND opportunity – just ask the CJ Spiller owners about that.
Ganaway was a late round rookie selection this year by the Jets. I don’t see much, if any, value here. Watch what happens in the preseason, but if he makes the team it will likely be for special teams or the practice squad.
There’s a fair amount to like about Dustin Keller:
- He’s unchallenged on the depth chart. Unless you are a serious Jets fan, I doubt you can name another Jets TE.
- He’s cheap. No one wants him and he goes off the boards as about the TE20 – he’ll outperform that.
- He’s proven. He’s demonstrated that he can put up the numbers. He finished as the TE6 in terms of yardage last year.
If you need a solid TE2 behind a stud like Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski, Keller is a great candidate.
We’ll continue our team-by-team capsules with the Oakland Raiders up next.
Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.