The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  When is the time to get the best value out of my 2013 rookie picks?  Do I sit on them until after the season?  Do I hold them and go in to the draft and see what people will offer at the time?  – Brian in Indiana

Perfect question for this time of year as rookie drafts are wrapping up and we move in to roster tweaking time.  I don’t think there’s an exact science on this, but I can tell what’s worked for me. 

Now is not the time to sell.  Your 2013 picks are at their lowest value right now and that will last until part way through the playing season.  The majority of dynasty owners are trying to figure out how to be competitive in 2012 and a 2013 pick does nothing for them right now. 

Selling during the season is fine.  The reason to do this is to make you more competitive.  If you have a solid contender after say six or seven weeks and you feel adding another piece will push you over the top, then trade away picks for a player.  There will be teams that are bailing early and will want to put money in the bank in the form of picks. 

In general, you will get the absolute most for your picks the closer they are to being OTC.  The downside is that the longer you wait, the less flexibility you have and you may be left holding with the pick.  This is a relatively low risk because in most leagues the market for good picks is robust.

2.)  Should I trade David Wilson and DHB for Jamaal Charles?  My current backs are Jonathan Stewart, LeGarrette Blount, and some lesser prospects.  – Eric in Pennsylvania

I would. 

Denarius Moore has overtaken DHB as the WR to own in Oakland.  Your best hope for DHB is that he becomes a reliable WR3 in a 12-team league.  While that’s valuable, you can probably find one fairly easily.

Wilson is a very nice prospect.  In January, I had Wilson as my rookie RB2.  He has a dynamic skill set, amazing speed and solid body control.  The plus is that he isn’t afraid of contact either.  He’ll drop his head and initiate in order to try to break the tackle and gain more yardage.  I project his upside as a low-end RB1 in two to three years. 

But you’re getting Jamaal Charles!  He is one of the most talented athletes in the game, his injury was early in the season, and from all reports he’s recovering nicely.  Let’s not forget that Charles put up over 1,900 total yards in 2010.  I had Charles ranked as my number three overall player in 2011 and he of course destroyed several of my redraft money teams.  He’s now a bargain.  Getting him for a questionable WR and a rookie is a steal.

3.)  My team keeps ending up in the middle of the pack in my salary cap league.  I’ve been offered Cam Newton, Mike Wallace and a 2013 first for Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener.  Leaning toward passing on the deal because I’m happy with Eli as my QB1 and I like both of my prospects. – Greg in Lemont, IL

I really hope you’ve already accepted this deal.  This is one of the most ridiculous examples of rookie fever I’ve seen this off-season. 

I’m very high on both Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener.  Luck has a very good chance of becoming a top-6 fantasy QB for years to come.  Fleener looks like a decent low end TE1 with upside.  That’s great.

On the other side of this deal, is a haul of value that rarely is traded under any circumstances let alone for two players who have never set foot on an NFL field. 

Since there really isn’t much to say about this trade – I’ll say this:  Readers, please stop trading away proven veteran players for prospects.  And more importantly, please join the DLF Forum so that you can run trades like this by the most knowledgeable dynasty community on the Internet. 

4.) I have the ability to hold a rookie for three years without putting him on contract.  Tannehill is of course everyone’s number three QB, but who do you like after that?  Is anyone worth my rookie stash?  Can we believe Elway on Osweiler?  – Midway Monsters in Illinois

You’re certainly right that Luck, RGIII and Tannehill are the top three in this bunch.  The first two will be gone in the top six of 99% of rookie drafts and Tannehill is going in the second round of nearly all drafts. 

The clear cut QB4 for me is Brandon Weeden.  He’s realistically the only other quarterback who can earn an immediate starting job.  That alone has to be enough to push him way up the board.  Like Tannehill, he should go in the second round of rookie drafts. 

After Weeden, the drop is rather steep.  Here would be my choices and why:

• Ryan Lindley – I like his skill set and I think he has a reasonable chance to start sooner rather than later.  The competition in Arizona is suspect at best.  (Third round pick)
• Russell Wilson – Yeah he’s undersized and all, but he’s a great kid with leadership and skills.  If he was only a few inches taller . . . (Fourth round pick)
• The rest should all go undrafted in my opinion.  In order:  Brock Osweiler,  Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, and if you need to go further you may want to find a new hobby.  (Note: The sneaky stash here is Foles.  Philly has a nice track record of creating buzz around it’s back up quarterbacks and dynasty owners have cashed in on guys like Kevin Kolb in the past.)

This was actually a pretty nice quarterback class.  The problem, unlike last year, is a lot of them went to really terrible situations like being behind Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, and RGIIII. 

Bonus tip:  If you are looking for a quarterback to put on the end of your roster purely for future trade value, see if Brian Hoyer happens to be on your waiver wire.  Hoyer is a double threat to be valuable – first if Brady goes down he’s the likely starter, but more importantly he’s a UFA in 2012.  I can easily see how Hoyer is the next Matt Cassel or Kevin Kolb type.

5.) There’s a school of thought out there that the third year for wide receivers tends to be a breakout year for some. With that in mind who are some third year receivers to keep an eye on (other than Brown, Cruz, and Bryant)?  – Ashley in Denton, TX

I don’t buy in to most of the “schools of thought” like third year WRs, rookie QBs like TEs or players play better in contract years.  Most of the time the stats prove these adages wrong and proponents just selectively find examples to prove their point.

There are still some good third year WRs to be excited about.  Options I’d look at:

• Demaryius Thomas:  Surprised he didn’t make your list of exceptions from the question.  I believe he will end up as the highest scoring third year WR in the NFL.
• Tampa Bay Mike Williams:  I’ve never seen a young player fall so quickly in the dynasty community.  I’ve seen him traded for slightly more than a bag of Cheetos.  He is a very nice buy low.  I like that the pressure should be off with Vincent Jackson on the other side.
• Eric Decker:  While some say he’s the WR to own in DEN, I don’t agree with that.  Still, he’s going to have tremendous value with Peyton Manning.  I think he has a better than even chance of ending up in the top-20 in PPR leagues. 
• Jacoby Ford:  Oakland is crowded and he’s probably getting crowded out, but he’s worth rostering. 
• Others to consider:  Golden Tate, Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders

If you’re a premium content member and want a more thorough breakdown of the third year wide receivers from last year, as well as an extensive look at the group for the upcoming season, check out the article here.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.