Dynasty Analysis of My Top 30 Rookies
This is my personal analysis and rankings of the top 30 rookies of this draft class. I’ve studied tape, factored in their team and depth chart situations to project how their careers will play out.
Here are the results:
1. Trent Richardson, RB CLE
Having landed in a Cleveland Browns offense where he’ll be featured as the main (only?) weapon is dynasty gold. This is a perfect case of talent + opportunity = instant dynasty success.
Year 1 projection: RB 2
Year 2 projection: RB 1
Career projection: RB 1
2. Andrew Luck, QB IND
I still can’t believe the Colts were fortunate enough to go from perennial playoff contender to number one draft pick the year the next great quarterback becomes available. The Colts did a good job drafting some young offensive weapons for Luck to throw to as well. The hype on him is legit. If you don’t have a franchise quarterback on your roster, this is the year to make sure you get one. If your team lacks a true QB 1, you need to position Luck at the top of your draft board.
Year 1 projection: QB 2
Year 2 projection: QB 1-2
Career projection: QB 1
3. Robert Griffin III, QB WAS
If you miss out on the chance to draft Luck, RGIII is a nice consolation prize. While I feel he’s QB 1 material, I think it will take him a bit longer to transition and develop into a true QB 1. My reasoning is he needs to learn to be calm and slow down within the pocket. Like any thoroughbred wild stallion, he needs to be broken first before he truly reaches his potential. When he learns not to bail on his pocket at the first sign of trouble it will click for him.
Year 1 projection: QB 2
Year 2 projection: QB 1-2
Career projection: QB 1
4. Doug Martin, RB TB
Martin has a similar skill-set as Mark Ingram does, except he doesn’t have any of the injury issues. He also doesn’t inherit a crowded backfield situation to deal with. He’ll battle LeGarrette Blount for playing time, but eventually it won’t be much of a battle since Blount is both invisible and a liability in the passing game. Martin should have an instant impact in the offense and be able to contribute to your roster immediately.
Year 1 projection: RB 2-3
Year 2 projection: RB 2
Career projection: RB 2
5. Kendall Wright, WR TEN
This year’s wide receiver class is so lumped at the top it’s hard to separate the top three. I went with Wright because I felt he had the best skill set to excel in PPR formats. I project him be a volume pass catcher, playing both the outside and the slot. He’s a playmaker with the ball in his hands. He and Kenny Britt will make a nice duo going forward.
Year 1 projection: WR 3
Year 2 projection: WR 2-3
Career projection: WR 2
6. Michael Floyd, WR ARI
One of the reasons I have Floyd just below Wright is due to his quarterback situation in Arizona. Kevin Kolb (or whoever they settle on) is an average at best quarterback. The other factor is there is Larry Fitzgerald on the other side. One could argue that having a great receiver on the opposite side is actually a good thing, but I make the argument that a par to sub-par quarterback has a hard enough time feeding the ball to one receiver much less trying to consistently feed two of them. See my logic? For that reason I have Floyd just a notch below Wright.
Year 1 projection: WR 3
Year 2 projection: WR 2-3
Career projection: WR 2
7. Lamar Miller, RB MIA
There are two reasons why I have Miller ranked as the third running back, rather than the second. One being his shoulder injury history, and two being it will take him a year or two to develop. To me, Miller is the second most talented running back in this class. He is only 21 years old and definitely raw. His ceiling is very high, but due to his health risk, his floor is also lower. One more injury to that surgically repaired shoulder and it could threaten his career. One thing that does not bother me is his landing spot in Miami. Reggie Bush has one year left on his contract and Daniel Thomas is not even in the ballpark when it comes to talent comparison. It will take some patience, but IF Miller can stay healthy the reward will be great. He’s a high risk, high reward gamble.
Year 1 projection: RB 4-5
Year 2 projection: RB 3
Career projection: RB 2
8. Justin Blackmon, WR JAX
Blaine Gabbert isn’t as bad of a quarterback as we saw last season. So, I’m not overly critical of Blackmon landing in Jacksonville. It factors in, yes, but I think slowly Jacksonville will grow into a respectable offense with this new regime. I never considered Blackmon to be an elite type of receiver, but I do think he’ll make for a very good one.
Year 1 projection: WR 3
Year 2 projection: WR 2-3
Career projection: WR 2
9. David Wilson, RB NYG
When the Giants first selected Wilson at the end of round one, I was a bit disappointed. The reality of him sharing the backfield with an established back like Ahmad Bradshaw was a bit of a downer. After carefully looking at the Giants roster, I realized this will pretty much be the Bradshaw/Wilson show. It also showed that the Giants were preparing to go away from the whole “thunder and lightning” concept to the “speed and speed” concept. In other words, they are shifting to a more explosive approach.
I believe this will be a who’s hot and who’s not injured timeshare. It will diminish the top end value of both players, but still will produce fantasy points to warrant some starts. If Bradshaw’s getting nicked up and his producing at a 3.9 clip becomes a trend, there may be a shift sooner rather than later.
Year 1 projection: RB 2-3
Year 2 projection: RB 2-3
Career projection: RB 2
10. Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
Jeffery was one of the players who climbed my board after seeing his landing spot. Jay Cutler is a solid quarterback, and being able to line up on the opposite side of a receiver that has demanded double teams his whole career in Brandon Marshall is also a huge factor. I believe no team improved their offensive attack more than the Bears this offseason (offensive line is still a concern, though). I don’t think it will be automatic for Jeffery to jump right in as the number two, but by the end of the year he will be getting those targets.
Year 1 projection: WR 3-4
Year 2 projection: WR 2-3
Career projection: WR 2
11. Coby Fleener, TE IND
One major reason I have Fleener ranked this high is because he’s joining his college teammate, Andrew Luck, in Indianapolis. You can’t discount the natural chemistry they developed in college. It also helps that Fleener is a very gifted pass catching tight end. He’ll struggle on the blocking side early on, but on this rebuilt roster, his primary role will be to catch passes from Luck. He’ll receive early playing time and should have an impact rookie season.
Year 1 projection: TE 2
Year 2 projection: TE 1
Career projection: TE 1
12. Marvin Jones, WR CIN
You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone rank Jones this high. I may be the crazy one, but I have to trust what I’ve seen with my own eyes both in person and on film. He has the best combination of hands and technique in this draft class. He’s a very polished route runner and I absolutely love that he almost always avoids catching the ball with his body. He tracks the ball with his hands in a similar manner that you see from Larry Fitzgerald. Receivers like that have a high success rate, and while the early spot in the lineup may go to Mohamed Sanu, ultimately I project Jones to beat him out and be the Bengals number two wide receiver.
Year 1 projection: WR 3-4
Year 2 projection: WR 3
Career projection: WR 2
13. AJ Jenkins, WR SF
While I was surprised the 49ers drafted Jenkins in the first round, I wasn’t surprised he went high. I pegged him as a late second or early third rounder, so I wouldn’t quite call it a reach. I project Jenkins to be a very consistent receiver in his NFL career. I describe him as a Reggie Wayne-lite. He’s a bit faster than Wayne, but Wayne is a better run after the catch receiver. Draft Jenkins for his consistency and solid production.
Year 1 projection: WR 3-4
Year 2 projection: WR 3-4
Career projection: WR 3
14. Chris Givens, WR STL
While all the publicity goes to Brian Quick, the receiver I want on my team is Givens. He’s a deep threat, but can also beat you on posts, screens, and slants. He has great agility and can stop/start on a dime. His play style is a cross between Greg Jennings and Torrey Smith. In Brian Schottenheimer’s offense, he will certainly take on the Santonio Holmes role for the Rams.
Year 1 projection: WR 4
Year 2 projection: WR 3-4
Career projection: WR 3
15. Devon Wylie, WR KC
Every year, there’s a new player who draws comparisons to Wes Welker. This year Wylie is that guy. Unlike year’s past, however, this comparison is actually on point. Scott Pioli (former Patriot exec and current Chiefs head) agreed, proving it by drafting him in the fourth round. I project Wylie as the eventual starting slot receiver, with Dwayne Bowe and Jon Baldwin on the outside.
Year 1 projection: WR 4-5
Year 2 projection: WR 3-4
Career projection: WR 3
16. Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA
I’ve always been a fan of Tannehill’s game. He reminds me of a lot of Aaron Rodgers. Now, he has a long way before we can even make the comparison, but it gives you a visual of his style of play. The term “raw” has been way overemphasized when describing him. I believe Tannehill is just as ready to play on day one as RGIII is. It’s likely the Dolphins will sit him in year one, but I wouldn’t shut the door on him all the way. He’s the franchise quarterback for a team that has lacked one for a very long time. I think they have found a solid starter.
Year 1 projection: QB 3
Year 2 projection: QB 2
Career projection: QB 1-2
17. Tommy Streeter, WR BAL
If you want to talk about a raw player, look no further than Streeter. At 6’ 5” , 215 lbs and clocking a 4.40 on the forty, he’s an absolute freak physically. Unfortunately, he didn’t get any real coaching until his junior year. In his only year as a starter, Streeter grew quite a bit from game one of the season to the end of the season. To me he’s one of best sleeper candidates in this class at the receiver position. He has the physical potential to be a number one receiver, but because he’s so raw, he also could be a career backup. I tend to believe the growth I saw last season is a sign of things to come. He’s a project receiver with a huge upside.
Year 1 projection: WR 5
Year 2 projection: WR 4
Career projection: WR 2-3
18. Brian Quick, WR STL
I am not a big fan of Brain Quick’s game. I think he’s been overhyped because of his measurables. Because of his competition level, it’s hard to really pick up much in game film. I’m judging him on what I saw with my own eyes at the Senior Bowl practices. He struggled with separation and was slow in and out of breaks on his routes. Maybe it was a bad week, but it’s the best competition he’s faced yet, and he didn’t deliver. He’ll get every opportunity with the Rams, but eventually I feel he’ll be just another receiver. He’ll contribute right away but I don’t see his production ascending much with experience.
Year 1 projection: WR 3-4
Year 2 projection: WR 3-4
Career projection: WR 3-4
19. Cyrus Gray, RB KC
The addition of Gray has placed Dexter McCluster’s spot on the roster in jeopardy. The Chiefs have moved him from running back to slot receiver, and believe me, it’s because of the Gray addition. I am a huge fan of Gray’s game as a running back and he’s a good insurance policy in case Jamaal Charles doesn’t regain his pre-knee injury form. Peyton Hillis is a one year band-aid for a team that had huge injury issues at the position last year. At worst, Gray will be a backup to Charles. At best, he’ll get a chance at some touches if Charles goes down or isn’t up to par. Charles owners should figure out a way to handcuff him for insurance purposes.
Year 1 projection: RB 4-5
Year 2 projection: RB 3-4
Career projection: RB 3
20. Ronnie Hillman, RB DEN
Hillman has some potential to be a starter in the Broncos offense, but I feel his limitations as a running back will keep him from ever being an undisputed starter. He’s a one cut runner with good hands. Where he struggles as a runner is in being indecisive, not diagnosing the running lanes very well, and often being too hesitant. Some of that can be coached out of him. The fact that he ended up on a good run blocking team helps his cause. His weaknesses will be better hidden in this offense, so there’s a shot he can stick. At least he’s a better running back prospect than Knowshon Moreno.
Year 1 projection: RB 4
Year 2 projection: RB 3-4
Career projection: RB 3-4
21. Stephen Hill, WR NYJ
Hill’s another product of the hype machine. He gets mentioned in the same breath as former Georgia Tech alums, Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas, but he’s nowhere near the receiver they were in college. Yes, he’ll catch the occasional vertical route, but overall he’s a slightly better version of Ted Ginn Jr. for fantasy teams. He’ll sprinkle in three or four big games a year with big catches to bloat his overall fantasy numbers.
Year 1 projection: WR 3-4
Year 2 projection: WR 3-4
Career projection: WR 3-4
22. LaMichael James, RB SF
I was surprised the 49ers drafted James. I was even more surprised at the reason that Jim Harbaugh gave. His reasoning was while at Stanford, they had a hard time stopping him. That’s out of the Pete Carroll and Nick Saban playbook for drafting players. Familiarity within the conference is generally a recipe for failure. I like James, but I don’t like his fit in the 49er offense. I feel like he’ll struggle to make a consistent enough impact to warrant a starting spot. He has upside and playmaking ability in the right system. For all I know, the Niners could be tweaking their system to have some spread concepts, but James doesn’t fit the offense they ran last year.
Year 1 projection: RB 4-5
Year 2 projection: RB 4
Career projection: RB 4
23. Isaiah Pead, RB STL
I think Pead will be a good returner and a third down back when it’s all said and done. Steven Jackson will be the team’s starter for the next year or two, and over that time Pead will have cemented his role as a specialty back, but not a starting caliber back. Nice weapon to have in real football, but not a consistent starter in fantasy football.
Year 1 projection: RB 4
Year 2 projection: RB 4
Career projection: RB 4
24. Nick Toon, WR NO
I wasn’t a big fan of Toon’s game on his college film, but I admit I’m intrigued about his potential within the Saints offense. Plain and simple, in this offense, average talent can be transformed into fantasy production. If he learns the system and develops some chemistry with Drew Brees, this could turn into something. It’s a long shot, but there is that chance. My projection is directly attributed to his talent level. Just know that could change if he gets an opportunity. This offensive system inflates the fantasy points of its players. Good players can become great and average players can become good.
Year 1 projection: WR 5
Year 2 projection: WR 4-5
Career projection: WR 4
25. Brandon Weeden, QB CLE
Weeden landed in a good situation where he has a realistic shot as a starter right away. If you have a bad quarterback situation on your roster, you could do far worse than Weeden. He’s a worthy low risk acquisition at this point. Don’t worry about his age. It’s a non-issue if he steps in as the starter right away.
Year 1 projection: QB 3
Year 2 projection: QB 2
Career projection: QB 2
26. Rueben Randle, WR NYG
The acquisition of Randle is much better news for the Giants than it is for dynasty owners. I projected Randle as an average-to-solid receiver prior to knowing what team he’d land on. He’ll be hard pressed to make any consistent impact for dynasty owners given how much he’ll fight for targets on this team. His ceiling is somewhere in-between what Mario Manningham produced for this team the last two seasons, which is anywhere from 600-900 yards and 4 to 9 touchdowns.
Year 1 projection: WR 5-6
Year 2 projection: WR 4-5
Career projection: WR 4-5
27. T.Y. Hilton, WR IND
Hilton would be a little higher on this list if it weren’t for his constant battles with injuries. I really feel like he’s got a great chance of being a decent slot receiver and a returner. He’s in a good situation with a young team around him and has a chance to grow into a playmaker if he can stay on the field. He is lightning fast and possesses great open field vision to turn short routes into homeruns. He’s a low risk pick with some fantasy potential.
Year 1 projection: WR 5-6
Year 2 projection: WR 5
Career projection: WR 4-5
28. Jeff Fuller, WR MIA
Fuller is the only guy on this list who wasn’t drafted. He’s also another guy that got my attention at the Senior Bowl practices. People think I’m crazy, but I saw so many similarities in his game and body type to compare to Brandon Marshall. He’ll have to make the team first, but I think between his talent and chemistry with college quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, he’ll make it.
He’ll never be a technically great pass catcher (neither is Marshall), but he has enough ability to warrant a roster spot. He has a bigger upside than my projections, but I have to account for his battle to make the roster. Snag him this far down in your draft and you could hit on a legit low cost sleeper.
Year 1 projection: WR 5-6
Year 2 projection: WR 5
Career projection: WR 4-5
29. Dwayne Allen, TE IND
I tabbed two tight ends with in this class with TE 1 ability. Those were Fleener and Allen. I didn’t anticipate the Colts pulling a Bill Belichick and grabbing both of them. I know that’s the new fad in the NFL, but very few teams are going to be able to pull off what the Patriots do with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Given that factor, I had to lower my expectations of what kind of fantasy career I should expect from Allen. Is it possible he’s better? Yes, but it’s not likely.
Year 1 projection: TE 2
Year 2 projection: TE 2
Career projection: TE 2
30. Russell Wilson, QB SEA
I’ve loved watching Wilson play since his freshman season at NC State. There are a few coaches in the NFL who are open minded enough to overlook the fact that he’s shorter than six feet – Pete Carroll is one of them. We all know the quarterback situation in Seattle is far from resolved. This is the perfect landing spot for him – he has first round talent with a coach who will give him a shot.
Year 1 projection: QB 3
Year 2 projection: QB 2
Career projection: QB 2
