The Three Year Plan

One of my personal goals in 2012 is to continue to promote salary cap, contract dynasty.  I received a number of requests for the Salary Cap Strategy article.  And I’ve gotten requests in the forum to go even deeper.  In particular, owners have asked a number of questions about planning horizons and developing a roadmap for their teams.  I think what’s interesting is that many of the techniques I uses with my salary cap (SC) team apply to standard dynasty.

In order to illustrate the approach I use, it’s going to be best to use an actual league and team.  Let’s go with mine!  This is a rather simple SC league.  Here are the aspects that differ from dynasty:

• Two round rookie draft with salary slotting.  First rounders get up to a five year deal, seconds get up to four.
• Waiver Wire (WW) and Free Agent (FA) auction pick-ups can be put on contracts up to three years.  The live FA auction is conducted in late August.
• Teams have one franchise tag and two transition tags to help them retain players coming off contract.  The franchise tag costs the average of the top-5 paid players at the position (very expensive) and the transition tag opens bidding at the current salary and allows the owner to match the final bid (unpredictable).  Again, three year max contracts.
• Cutting a player under contract costs 20% of the remaining contact value.

Other than that, it’s a heck of a lot like regular dynasty.

The league is 12-teams 20-roster spots, $250 cap.  My roster after the 2012 rookie draft (starting requirements):

QB(1): Tom Brady ($42,3), Andy Dalton ($1,2)

RB(1-2): Matt Forte ($65,1), DeMarco Murray ($4,4), Jonathan Stewart ($20,2), CJ Spiller ($10,3), Pierre Thomas ($1,2), David Wilson ($8,5), Bilal Powell ($1,2), Joe McKnight ($2,2)

WR(2-4): Hakeem Nicks ($10,1), AJ Green ($10, 4), Mike Wallace ($46,2), Michael Floyd ($10,5), Austin Collie ($6,2)

TE(1-2): Jimmy Graham ($2,1), Coby Fleener ($6,4), Kyle Rudolph ($1,0)

K(1)/DST(1): None – will acquire in the FA auction or via WW before week one

I hold one 2013 first, two 2014 firsts and a 2014 second, then one of each subsequently

Note: the number after the contract amount is the contract length.  A “3” means I have the player at the amount for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons.

Okay, with all that behind us let’s get to the meat of this.

Three Year Horizon

In both SC and traditional dynasty, I advocate taking a three year approach for your team and not going beyond that horizon.  I notice in the DLF Forums that owners are tempted to have a much longer term point of view and I think that’s to their detriment.  It’s extremely hard to predict fantasy year-to-year, let alone five years out.  Even in traditional leagues, it is likely that 90% of your roster will have turned over in that period of time.  By planning too far out, you forego low cost, near term production.

Just for fun:  the top-5 guys to own according to SI.com in 2007 were LT (retired), Steven Jackson (declining), Larry Johnson (retired), Frank Gore (declining) and Shaun Alexander (retired).  You get my point.

I tend to value near term production higher than most dynasty owners in part because of my salary cap slant.  Declining players like Reggie Wayne, Gore and Michael Turner don’t scare me off in either format because I know I can get them on the cheap and get good production from them.  Example:  Wayne ($39,1)/2.09 was traded for the 2.02 this week.  The team sending Wayne had cap issues, but wow did the team getting him score value and 2012 production!  It’s not that terrible to end up cutting a washed up player.  You can’t always stay ahead of the curve if you want to contend now.  This team getting Wayne essentially rented him for a year for the difference between the 2.02 and the 2.09.  Pretty good in my book.

At the risk of offending some, I believe that a total rebuild should be an extreme rarity in dynasty and especially SC.  I like to pattern my approach after the Patriots – constantly reload while making the playoffs year in and year out.  While I see myself as a serious contender in 2012, I made sure I picked up three solid rookies in this draft (Floyd, Wilson and Fleener).  I could have traded one or more of those picks for a veteran who will certainly outproduce them in 2012, but I needed to balance near term with making sure I am teed up for a year or two from now.  Also, because I feel that my core group can contend, I buy myself a year while my rookies mature and acclimate to the NFL.  I don’t need any of them as a weekly starter in 2012.

Notice that I avoided the “project” receivers in the second round and went with Fleener instead.  I’m not too interested in wide receivers who will need years to develop before giving me any production at all.  It’s often said in the forums – “remember this is dynasty.” Okay, I remember that.  However, remember you’re trying to win your league and hopefully right now!  I’m less interested in looking really smart because I took a player in 2009 who is now emerging than I am in taking a player in 2011 that contributes to my playoff run.  Even if the player I select ends up having a somewhat lower ceiling.

Elements of my Three Year Plan

When assessing my team, I bucket players into four categories:

Franchise

These are the core players on my team who I want to retain during the bulk of the three year horizon.  The key is getting production at cheap prices.  This is critical because it allows you to over pay for disposable players who aren’t part of your long term plans.  The total cost of your Franchise players should be a fraction of the Disposable players.

This has taught me the value of a top-3 rookie pick – they’re gold.  If you have conviction about a player (like AJ Green or Trent Richardson) you need to go get that pick.  Once they are rostered and producing, good luck acquiring them in a trade.

Tom Brady

Yes he’s extremely expensive.  He is arguably a hybrid Franchise/Disposable player.  Here’s the thing – Brady anchors my team.  He’s a set it and forget player and there are so few of those.  Other than his bye week, he is in the lineup.  At the end of the three year deal, he’s probably gone.  Time will tell.  The flexibility provided by the next few players is what affords me the luxury of rostering Brady at this price.

AJ Green

AJG is the best selection I’ve made since getting Hakeem Nicks in the 2009 rookie draft.  He will be a central piece of my team due to his cheap contract and his predicted production.  It would be very difficult to pry him from my fingers.

DeMarco Murray

I essentially traded Cam Newton to get Murray and Fleener.  Like AJG, his contract is ridiculously good and provides tremendous flexibility to “overpay” elsewhere.  I’m not particularly high on Murray, but the cost/benefit ratio was so compelling.

Jimmy Graham

We all love Graham.  The beauty of him is that the tight end franchise tag is predictably very low.  Neither Graham nor Rob Gronkowski has hit the open market (and won’t), so I’ll lock him in for three more at the end of the season.  The decision to use the tag on Graham will have impacts on other players however.

Disposable

These are the players that I intend to start on an every week basis but, either due to cost or age, I am not likely to retain beyond the current contract.

Matt Forte

He’s my RB1, but I believe others will emerge from my roster making his contract unacceptably expensive.  He’s not part of my long term plan and will likely get tossed back to the FA pool rather than transition tagged.  If my team is struggling and I doubt I’ll make the playoffs, I’ll trade him to a contender during the season for a future pick (like salary dump trades in Major League Baseball).

Hakeem Nicks

As devastating as it will be, Nicks will get the transition tag, not the franchise tag.  I have to choose between Nicks and Graham and Graham gets the nod.  Currently the tag for a tight end is $18 and a wide receiver costs $53 – remember, to get a guy in to my Franchise category there needs to be good cost/benefit.  There’s an outside chance I retain Nicks with the transition tag, but it’s not guaranteed.  Nicks has moved from the Franchise category to Disposable simply because of cap management and the decision to retain Graham.

Pierre Thomas

I love him at this price.  He’s essentially a free bye-week/injury fill in.  Lost in the shuffle is that PT ended up as the RB#27 in non-PPR.  Do you want to start him?  No.  However, in an emergency there are far worse options.

Andy Dalton

I need a QB2.  I doubt he’s on my team very long.  I’ve come to believe one needs an elite quarterback to win in fantasy and Dalton is a prime example of getting insurance on the super cheap.  If Brady goes down for more than a week or two, I’m dead anyway.

Mike Wallace

He’s tough to categorize because I don’t have a clear three year vision for him.  I’m not sure I feel strongly enough to have him in my plan beyond his current contract.  It’s less about my horizon and more about my uncertainty in the player.

Bait

I want to have a few (just a few) trade bait players.  These are diamonds in the rough that I pick up on the cheap with the intent to flip, rather than use for production.  This is typically how I acquire additional future picks during the playing season.

Austin Collie

I won Collie in an in-season auction last year after his owner cut him.  I placed him on the maximum contract length and stuck him at the end of my bench.  I had no intent of playing him and knew he would stink all year.  However, for $6 of $250, what the heck?  If Collie rebounds with Andrew Luck at the helm, I will flip him for a future first.  I’ll then go get another Bait player or Disposable player off the WW.

Bilal Powell/ Joe McKnight

I want no part of the Jets backfield or the Jets as a whole, but Shonn Greene isn’t very good.  If Greene loses his job, there isn’t much else on the depth chart and people will be clamoring to acquire one of these guys (probably based on whatever the major media outlets are espousing).  Smells like an opportunity to flip the pair for a future second.  Remember – keep reloading so you don’t need to rebuild.

Developmental/Picks

I keep players and picks I know won’t give me meaningful production this year, but hopefully become Franchise or Disposable players in a year or two.  When breaking ties in the rookie draft, I’ll lean more toward near term production than many owners.  That doesn’t mean I’ll take a player I really dislike (looking at you Daniel Thomas), but I factor in three year production.

Michael Floyd

I had him ranked ahead of Justin Blackmon on my final SC board.  I think he has a decent chance to out produce Blackmon over a three year span and I was able to get value by trading down for him.  I traded the 1.02/Matt Flynn for the 1.05/Jonathan Stewart because of my three year approach.  I believe Floyd has a chance to emerge as a low end WR3 in 2012 giving me additional roster flexibility.

David Wilson

This pick didn’t fit my strategy.  I don’t particularly like his prospects within my horizon, but he fell to me at 1.07.  I tried to get out of the pick, but couldn’t.  Sometimes you just have to accept it.  I’ve mentally put Wilson in the parking lot until 2014.  Maybe I get pleasantly surprised!

Coby Fleener

Took him with a high second.  There were many talented developmental receivers on the board (Mohamed Sanu, AJ Jenkins, Ryan Broyles), but I wanted to get the high floor and near term production that Fleener promises.  I rank him as a legit TE2 in 2012.  I’ll take that with a second round pick in a league that only rosters twenty.  Worst case, I think Fleener is an above average TE2 and I know I’ll have Graham during the entire planning horizon.  Additionally, because I am confident in Fleener, I dealt away Jared Cook and will probably not transition tag Kyle Rudolph.  I’ve thus freed up roster spots for more Bait players at wide receiver and running back who I hope to flip for picks.

The overarching goals for my team over each three year period are as follows:

1.) Never miss the playoffs.

I don’t set out day one to win the championship; I set out to be in the top-6 teams so I have a chance to win the championship.  Rarely does the league leader in wins or scoring actually win the whole thing.  The dirty secret about fantasy football is that luck comes in to play more than we want to admit.  In a one and done playoff format, there isn’t much you can do other than set your roster and hope.  It takes skill and luck to make the playoffs – winning during the playoffs takes mostly luck.

2.) Never have to rebuild.

I use my Bait and Disposable players to build a war chest of future picks so I am constantly reloading and never out of contention.  This is also where constant participation in places like the DLF Forum will help.  By interacting with active owners, I feel I have an edge when it comes to selecting Bait players off the WW.

3.) Maintain the course and have conviction.

During our 2011 rookie draft, it wasn’t easy trading Greg Jennings ($39,2) and the 1.05 (Daniel Thomas) to get the 1.01 (AJG).  I overpaid massively and I knew it but only so often do you get that vision that tells you a Franchise player can be had in the rookie draft.  I think the other owner thought Christmas had come in May.  And I got some choice e-mails from other owners in the league.  I simply had to do it – conviction and trust in the plan.  Luckily I find myself with a solid WR1 on a long term, cheap contract.  I very much doubt anyone would trade AJG ($10,4) for Jennings ($39,1) and Thomas ($10,4) today.

Hopefully I’m beginning to piqué your interest in salary cap dynasty. More to come, I promise.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.