The DLF Mailbag

 

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  I subscribe to the theory that anyone can be traded for the right deal.  What do you think of this trade offer?  I give: Megatron, Tampa Mike, and Mark Ingram and I get: Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace and the 1.12. – Jeff in the Garden State

Now that is the definition of a blockbuster!

It’s rare to see an owner seriously considering a deal involving Megatron.  Plus, I agree with your notion that anyone can be traded if the price is right.

I don’t like selling Tampa Mike and Ingram at this point in time.  Their values are at career lows.  This time last year Ingram was arguably the 1.01 and was locked as a top three rookie.  Tampa Mike was viewed as a low end WR1/high end WR2.  I have a positive outlook for both of these players in 2012.  Tampa Mike should benefit from the addition of V.Jax and I think Ingram gets too much heat for his lack of first year production.  Admittedly, his recent knee surgery is worrisome to me but I’m not jumping off the train quite yet.

I look at the mix of players you are trading and it comes down to this:  Would I trade Tampa Mike and Ingram for Wallace?  And if so, would I also trade Megatron for Nicks and the 1.12?  For me, the overall answer is no.  I think the first part might be slightly in your favor, but certainly not by the margin that the second part goes against you.  Stand pat and enjoy Megatron’s continued dominance and the resurgence of Tampa Mike and Mark Ingram.

2.)  Would you trade the 1.03 and the 2.02 (or 2.03) for Ahmad Bradshaw, Antonio Brown and the 1.05?  My only legitimate quarterback is Matt Schaub and I think RG3 will be there at 1.03. – Alan also in the Garden State

Yes.  And I’m tempted to leave it at that.

I hope by now you’ve already accepted this rather unbelievable offer.  Antonio Brown is arguably worth the 1.03 by himself.  So the rest of this deal is tremendously in your favor.  Figure out your quarterback problem later.  Keep acquiring the most valuable assets and you’ll be fine.  I suspect someone will trade you a decent quarterback for Bradshaw – maybe the guy who takes David Wilson in your rookie draft.

3.)  What kind of value do you see in these second year WRs: Randall Cobb, Jon Baldwin and Greg Little? – Phil from Tobacco Alley

I’ll touch on each individually:

Randall Cobb

I like him a lot and I’d have him second among the guys you list behind Greg Little.  He has tremendous talent, a great attitude and the best quarterback in football.  The only thing working against him is the crowded team he plays on.  That will shake out in time.  Patient owners will be rewarded by Cobb.  I also think he may end up being a very good buy low candidate mid-season because I doubt he comes out of the gate with much production.

Jon Baldwin

Never liked him and nothing has changed.  I think Baldwin was grossly over drafted by Kansas City last year.  He is a malcontent and has behaved that way in college and the pros.  Add to that, Matt Cassel who I think is an acceptable-to-good backup NFL quarterback and you’ve got a guy in Baldwin that I won’t have on any dynasty roster.  He’s outside of my top 60 WRs, but he’s not quite waiver wire material.  There are other flyer receivers I’d rather own.

Greg Little

Short of Cleveland doing the right thing and closing the deal on RG3, this was a terrific off-season for Little.  Let me count the ways:

1.) Once again Little finds himself as the undisputed WR1.  Cleveland did nothing meaningful in either free agency or the draft to bolster the wide receiver group – this will translate to his getting the majority of targets.

2.) They added some guy called Trent Richardson.  He will take pressure off the passing game because he will demand attention from defenses.  I expect the focus of teams who play the Browns will be to stop Richardson at all costs.  That’s good for Little.

3.) Brandon Weeden isn’t that bad.  Whether he’s the day one starter or not, I don’t know.  But I am willing to bet that he is starting sooner rather than later.  Weeden was wildly successful running the OSU offense that focused on Blackmon.  I think Little is a comparable talent to Blackmon, but frankly has superior measurables.

This is probably the optimal time to try to acquire Little with a 2012 rookie pick.  It is an absolute steal to get him for the 1.07 or later.

4.)  What’s Chris Polk worth now that he plummeted in the draft and was taken by Philadelphia?  I need running back help.  – Jarred in Seattle

I was never high on Chris Polk and wasn’t all that surprised that he fell in the draft.  In the plus column, he’s probably the best pass catching running back in the draft class and Philly will appreciate that.  On the other side of the coin, he’s backing up LeSean McCoy who I rank as the overall most valuable dynasty player.

Polk is likely to get some touches regardless of whether McCoy is injured or not.  The Eagles coaches said recently that they felt they may have overworked McCoy in 2011.  On the other hand, a lot of analysts were pretty high on Dion Lewis last year and he hasn’t gone anywhere.  So, in short, you have an elite running back (McCoy) and a fight for carries when he needs a breather between Lewis and Polk.  Yuck.

Net/net:  You’d need to be very far down in a rookie draft to take Polk – like the fourth or fifth round.  He’s not even locked in as the handcuff to McCoy.  I’d look elsewhere for my running back help.

From time to time a question hits the mailbag that I simply can’t answer.  I just rely on the wealth of dynasty know how at DLF.  This week I got an IDP question and it was all I could do to spell IDP just now.  So, please welcome my guest Steve Wyremski to the mailbag tradition.

Special Question:  I am working on a trade to bring in DL Charles Johnson (CAR) and went to look at your Dynasty DL Rankings to see where he ranks and he is nowhere to be found.  DL Greg Hardy (CAR) comes in at #17, but Johnson isn’t in the top 25??  I have to imagine he is ranked higher than Greg Hardy, – isn’t he?  – Brian in Michigan

Steve’s Reply:

Charles Johnson not being included in our rankings is a clear oversight. Nice catch!

In fact, updated dynasty IDP rankings are one of the items we will be focusing on in the near term. We added a number of additional IDP resources to the current group, so expect that soon.

Specific to Johnson, he ranks as a top ten dynasty defensive lineman. I currently have him ranked seventh overall in my second tier of defensive lineman behind guys like Jason Pierre-Paul, Jared Allen, Mario Williams, and Trent Cole. He is also a significant upgrade from Greg Hardy who can be reasonably ranked as a top 25 defensive lineman. Johnson remains a top defensive line option since he’s only 25, plays in a 4-3 base defense, and typically is on the field for more than 85% of the team’s snaps. To provide some additional context, he was recently drafted as the ninth defensive lineman in a 12-team IDP expert mock draft we participated in. Hardy was drafted in the 29th round.

So, you are correct. Johnson should be ranked well above Hardy.

One thing to keep in mind is that Johnson did recently undergo a knee procedure. They are calling it minor, but it is something to be aware of when targeting him.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.