20/20: Joe Burrow

Dwight Peebles Posted On February 14, 2020

Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2020 by giving you 20 facts you must know.

1.) Player Name – Joe Burrow

2.) College – LSU

3.) Height/Weight – 6’4”, 216 pounds

4.) Birthdate – 12/10/1996 (23 years old)

5.) Class – Senior

6.) Basic college stats – Burrow had a legendary senior season, throwing for 60 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He completed 76.3 percent of his passes, a new NCAA record, and led the Tigers to the National Championship.

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Statistics via sports-reference.com

7.) NFL Draft round projection – He will be the first overall pick in all likelihood. The Bengals may move it, but the pick will still almost certainly be the young quarterback.

8.) Current NFL comparison – There are elements of a few high-profile quarterbacks in his game. He moves around and makes plays downfield like Aaron Rodgers, he isn’t a quick runner but he is elusive, has good footwork, and senses pressure like Rodgers. Burrow improved as the season went on, and was lethal when plays broke down. He may not have a deep ball like Rodgers but he has a great arm and can make throws to all levels of the field.

9.) Best possible destination –The Bengals have postured themselves to be in this position after making do with Andy Dalton at the helm for several years too long. They are building an offensive line although the line still needs help, there is a good running game in place, and several good receiving options. Burrow is also from Athens, Ohio and is well – renowned in the area.

If we are looking past the obvious best destination and a scenario which could become reality through trade, the Carolina Panthers would be a great landing spot. They appear to be ready to move on from Cam Newton although they aren’t publicly saying so. Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore are two of the brightest young stars for Burrow to have alongside him on offense. The Panthers hired Joe Brady, the passing game coordinator at LSU this past season, to be their offensive coordinator. New head coach Matt Rhule is one of the brightest young minds in football as well.

10.) Worst possible destination – The worst possible could actually be the Bengals due to their past ineptitude in fielding competitive teams consistently. The ownership is among the worst in the NFL and the team is consistently losing their players due to management not retaining their most valuable core assets.

Zac Taylor is also an unproven head coach and Burrow, while amazing this past season, still only has one dominant season under his belt. Can the coaching staff sustain and build on his success? Can they commit to addressing all their needs and build a team around a true franchise quarterback? They were unable to do so for many years with Carson Palmer.

11.) Best current skill – Level-headedness. Nothing rattles him. He played on some of the biggest stages in college football and had his back against the wall in a few of them. He keeps his composure and always keeps his head downfield. Burrow reads and takes what the defense gives him. He is dangerous on the run and not afraid to tuck it and take off downfield either. The decision making and cool demeanor are what sets him apart from many prospects entering the NFL.

12.) Skill that needs to be improved – He was only a one-year stud starter. His junior year was not the strongest and he looked ordinary. Burrow likely would not have been drafted if he came out last year. The LSU system was tailored to get their receivers open and provide quick reads for the quarterback. It will be paramount for him to prove quickly he was not a product of a system. Watching him on the move, when plays broke down, I don’t share this concern – he is a cerebral quarterback and will continue to adapt as he enters NFL offenses.

13.) Past/current rookie ADP – Expect him to go early in the second round, possibly middle in non-Superflex drafts. The dozen or so I have been privy to, Burrow falls in this range. Superflex – he’s the 1.01 almost unanimously. The talent of Tua Tagovailoa and the possibility of Burrow landing on the Bengals have some believing in the Alabama rookie over Burrow. It’s going to be hard to go wrong with either, but he seems safer due to the injury uncertainty of Tua.

14.) Projected dynasty value – Early projections have him falling in the QB12-QB15 range overall dynasty value. He is obviously unproven, and yet I feel it’s safe without knowing the team he is landing on. There are doubts in a team like Cincinnati, but through free agency and the rest of the draft, a team has time to build quickly for an incoming prospect.

In superflex I would move him toward the higher end, QB10 at the highest. Quarterbacks are just more valuable, and the ceiling for Burrow is pretty lofty.

15.) Recruiting profile – The path he has traveled makes him a more interesting prospect for me. He was a four-star recruit in the 2015 class, the 280th ranked player in the class per 247 Sports, the eighth-ranked dual-threat quarterback overall. He signed with Ohio State and redshirted his freshman year. Then a broken hand sidelined him 2018 as he watched Dwayne Haskins tear apart college football. After three seasons he transferred to LSU as a junior and was granted immediate eligibility to play.

He wanted to play at Nebraska but wasn’t catching the eyes of scouts there, or many other schools. He sought out well-known quarterback gurus to find what he should be doing, what camps he should attend. Burrow fought hard to get his name out and persevered through many people thinking he was not good enough to be a top-flight quarterback.

16.) Lack of elite physical traits – Compared to other quarterback prospects, Burrow doesn’t have any elite trait. His arm isn’t “live” and he doesn’t possess a cannon like Jacob Eason or Jordan Love. He has great accuracy but lacks the touch like Tagovailoa and doesn’t have the seasoning like Justin Herbert. He moves well and can tuck the ball and take off, but isn’t dangerous and it isn’t something defenses would constantly need to worry about. He is a good overall prospect and does many things well, but as far as elite physical traits – he does not possess them.

17.) Swagger – This kid has it in spades, a cool calmness but mixed with bravado. He plays with a devil may care attitude, his press conferences are always good. Burrow is confident and cocky but not the overly cocky which makes you hate the guy – like another number one pick who was recently drafted by the Browns.

18.) Intelligence– He is the son of two educators, his mother an elementary school principal and his father a longtime teacher in high school and college. His father and brother played football for the University of Nebraska, his father under Cornhusker great Tom Osborne. Burrow lived and breathed football from the moment he could walk. He started on defense before eventually migrating to quarterback and is a tough guy who doesn’t shy from hits when he is running the ball.

19.) Chip on his shoulder – All of this adds up to a huge chip on his shoulder and he plays like it. He was snubbed by many big schools due to his lack of elite arm talent. He couldn’t break through at Ohio State and fought hard when he got to Baton Rouge. He is aware and open, smart and calculated, plays with a vindictive fire to step on his opponents throat and kick them when they are down. The BCS semifinal was a showcase of this – Burrow had seven passing touchdowns in the first half and the Tigers offense did not let up against Heisman hopeful Jalen Hurts. The look in his eyes, the fire and hunger, it’s going to drive him for years.

20.) Do we have some draft day drama? On Dan Patrick’s recent show there was a comment about Burrow wanting to go to a franchise committed to win the Super Bowl. Some took it as uncertainty of wanting to go to Cincinnati, as the Bengals have not exactly appeared to strive for Super Bowls the past 30 years.

Could we see a situation like 2004 where Eli Manning was drafted by the Chargers and immediately traded, due to refusing to play for San Diego? We haven’t seen a power play like this in quite some time. Burrow actually has the same agent as Manning had, Tom Condon. It would be risky but few have been in as advantageous of a situation as Burrow is right now.