The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*
- I can only start two running backs, but start 3-4 receivers. I have Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, Allen Hurns and Steve Smith at receiver, and Adrian Peterson, Todd Gurley, Eddie Lacy and Ameer Abdullah at running back. I also have pick 1.01. Should I test the water on AP and take Ezekiel Elliott, take Laquan Treadwell or Josh Doctson, or shop the pick for a receiver contingency plan with the writing on the wall for Steve Smith? – Travis in IL
Truth be told, I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the options you laid out. While it may seem you’re better off at running back than you are wide receiver, and you also start potentially half as many of the former on a weekly basis, it’s not as if there’s still room for improvement. Todd Gurley appears likely to be the centerpiece of your ball carrying corps moving forward, but the duo of Eddie Lacy and Ameer Abdullah carry with them significant question marks. I’m a fan of each, but Lacy is coming off a career-worst year and the Packers don’t seem married to him, and Abdullah never truly capitalized on his preseason hype en route to failing to sequester the lion’s share (terrible pun intended) of Detroit’s backfield usage.
Even all-world Adrian Peterson can’t do it forever. In a worst-case scenario, you could actually be closer to having one reliable running back than four. As such, I have no issues adding Ezekiel Elliott to the fold, enhancing a position even though you already view it as a strength.
As for receiver, you have two elite options in Dez Bryant and Alshon Jeffery, and an above average WR3 in Allen Hurns. Given his age and the injury he suffered, Steve Smith worried me in your four-spot, and it’s not as if Laquan Treadwell and Josh Doctson are very far, if at all, behind Elliott in the rookie pecking order. Given your perceived positional disparity, taking either would also be a fine option with pick 1.01.
As for trading, we can look to the ADP data. Though not a true measure of “tradeability,” it can at least give us a rough estimate of market value. Currently, the first rookie (Elliott) is the 18th player off the board, behind 14 receivers and two other running backs (and of course Rob Gronkowski). In a linear comparison, that would mean you could theoretically get just about any other player, if not more considering the hype rookie picks bring with them. Like the options laid out above, I’d see nothing wrong with this either. All told, I know it’s my “job” to have a strong opinion on the matter, but I simply don’t here – owning the top rookie pick is like having the key to the kingdom, and given your current roster makeup I don’t see a wrong move in the bunch.
- I’m in a $200 non-PPR auction draft league with two keepers. One can keep at most two players from one’s team for at most two years (not including the year the player is drafted) for the price the player was drafted. Here’s my selection (I can keep each of them for two more years if I choose): Odell Beckham $50, Keenan Allen for $19 and Sammy Watkins for $14. I think I should definitely keep Watkins for 14. So I would have 186 left for the draft. Should I keep Beckham or Allen in addition to Watkins? – Chad in RI
Though Giants receiver Odell Beckham would cost you 25% of your budget, there’s certainly an argument to be made that he’s indeed worth it, especially given your scoring system. To that point, though Beckham was “only” the PPR WR5 (WR4 in PPG), he jumped to the non-PPR WR2 both overall and in PPG. With 25 career touchdowns in just 27 games, it’s easy to see how his value differs between the two formats.
Conversely, Chargers receiver Keenan Allen dropped from WR6 in PPR PPG down to WR9 in non-PPR. This was his second year in a row of scoring the ball at a below average rate. In fact, he scored just eight touchdowns in 210 targets since 2014, compared to eight in his rookie season alone, when he saw exactly half that number.
With that said, he’s still an incredibly good player who you’d be getting at 40 percent of OBJ’s cost. I just can’t ignore that value. You’d have arguably two WR1-caliber players with Allen and Sammy Watkins, and $167 of your budget remaining. If all goes well, you might even get Beckham back for a similar value – but there’s no way you’d be able to do the same with Allen if you let him go.
- In my 10-man PPR league where we keep eight players I’m struggling to shrink my team to that limit. The guys I’m considering are Aaron Rodgers, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Marshall, Golden Tate, LeSean McCoy, Chris Ivory, CJ Anderson, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and Julius Thomas. I also don’t have a pick for the first four rounds in the upcoming rookie/free agent draft. Who should I look to move before my keeper deadline in August? – Sean in NJ
Right off the bat you have five obvious keepers in Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Marshall, LeSean McCoy and Travis Kelce. You also have two guys who I don’t see making the cut in Julius Thomas and Chris Ivory. Therefore, we’re looking at five remaining players for four spots.
Instead of continuing the whittle this list down, however, I’ll offer up a different approach – try trading Aaron Rodgers. Quarterback simply doesn’t carry as much value in a 10-team format, but this could still work in your favor if a league-mate doesn’t share that belief. Perhaps you could get a lesser quarterback (a la Phillip Rivers or Carson Palmer) to still afford you QB1 numbers, while also netting a pick back in return. You’d still have to trim a spot down, but at least you’d have a little more ammunition come draft-time.
Regardless, as there’s still one cut left to make, I’d nominate Golden Tate. He just wasn’t all that good last year, and while his ceiling is probably somewhere between his 2014 and 2015 numbers, you can find other players like that. I just think both CJ Anderson and Zach Ertz are more likely to finish as a first-tier option at their respective positions than Tate is, and perhaps you could get a better pick for him as well.
- I’ve been offered AJ Green for my DeVante Parker and 1.04. Thoughts? – Mike in MD
Please and thank you. I like DeVante Parker as much as the next guy, and even snagged him in the majority of my rookie drafts last season. Many have even claimed his upside could be that of one Adriel Jeremiah Green.
But that’s the devil of upside – as of now it means nothing more than unlocked potential, and Parker may very well never find the key. Green is a locked and loaded WR1 on an offense with a target vacuum. Given that drop-off after the top three players in rookie drafts, at least in my opinion, I’ll take the stalwart every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
- I’m drafting fourth in my PPR dynasty league, and am trying to trade up to pick 1.01 to get Zeke Elliott. The team at that spot has solid running backs. With the potential to start four receivers in any given week, should I offer one of my receivers (Mike Evans, Michael Floyd, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, AJ Green and Randall Cobb) to get the first pick, or should I try to trade pick 1.04 or a receiver for one of his running backs? – Chris in TX
Whenever you’re trying to obtain the best pick in the draft, you’re always going to have to overpay. With that said, four of your six receivers are easily worth much, much more than pick 1.01, meaning that you’re looking at a trade involving either Michael Floyd or Randall Cobb. Even more likely is that you’re going to have to involve your draft pick as well.
I liken each player in the afore-mentioned duo as a mid-first round pick, although Cobb still seems to carry more value than his Cardinal counterpart. Given that, I could see offering something like Floyd and pick 1.04 for pick 1.01 and an early second rounder (if he has one), or Cobb and 1.04 for 1.01 and a late first (again, if he has one). This would help your running back situation while also allowing you to trade from a position of strength, and is probably your best move. Worst-case scenario, you can always nab a guy like Derrick Henry at pick 1.04, or just trade it when you’re on the clock to another team willing to part with a ball carrier.
- How are the dynasty ADP positions picked and ranked? I just became a member and I’m still trying to get used to the website. I heard that the ADP at DLF is a good standard to compare to ADP to other websites. – Nicholas in OR
First and foremost, thank you for subscribing – especially given all the draft-related content we’re about to pump out, I can promise you that you made a good decision!
The dynasty ADP is run by our very own Ryan McDowell. He sets up six mock drafts at the beginning of each month, each with 12 owners. The 72-person sample size helps ensure that all drafting styles and philosophies are accounted for, and also that any “deviant” selections (i.e. a player goes much earlier or much later in one draft than in any of the others) is effectively normalized by the other five drafts.
From there, he averages the data across the drafts, providing us not only with a player’s average draft position, but also his ranking in the hierarchy. This is important, as even the number one overall player is unlikely to ever have a consensus number one rank across each of the drafts. Finally, the data is presented both as an overall summary, as well as a positional breakdown. You can even look at the ADP of only the rookies if you wish.
All told it is definitively the gold standard of ADP data. Between the scope and sample size, it’s a thoroughly comprehensive view of player value. If you have any other questions, you can always hit Ryan up on Twitter.
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