Stop Sleeping on Cobb

Eric Breeze

cobb

I thought about making a title involving Randall and that yellow vegetable but I thought it would be too “corny.”   I’ll admit that was a terrible joke, but saying Randall Cobb is an elite dynasty wide receiver is also something that does not deserve to be laughed at. Cobb has been slowly moving up ADP, however there is still value to be had. Per DLF monthly ADP, he has moved into the early second round of startups as the WR9 in the last few months, so I wouldn’t go as far as saying we are fast asleep on him, more that we just woke up and haven’t had a cup of coffee yet. I have Cobb locked in my top 5 dynasty PPR wide receivers, I know that sounds crazy so sit down, grab a cup of joe and give me a chance to explain.

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Just a few months ago, I struggled with trying to decide if I would prefer Cobb or AJ Green in PPR dynasty format. I was extremely torn, but Green’s proven year-to-year consistency at first gave him the edge until I looked closer. There is no way to spin this stat – Randall Cobb has only one year of over 1,000 receiving yards and only two years featuring over 500. While that may be a reason to shy away from selecting him in the first round of a startup, on a per target basis, Cobb has been the cream of the crop for years. He has never averaged less than 2.275 fantasy points per target the last three years. Looking at the eight wide receivers being drafted over him, only Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham Jr have a single season with a better fantasy points per target than 2.275. If we want to talk about best seasons, both of those by Dez and OBJ mentioned were actually slightly below Cobb’s 2.326 FPs/tgt in 2014. One could easily say that the reason for this is because he has had the best quarterback in the universe throwing him the ball every play of his career, which is only more of a positive for Cobb given he just signed a nice team friendly four-year contract extension. So to put it simply, there has not been a more effective wide receiver in the entire NFL on a per target basis than Randall Cobb and nothing has happened to assume that it will be otherwise moving forward.

While Cobb’s efficiency is top notch, having the target volume is also important to put up great fantasy numbers. I see people projecting a regression for the Green Bay wide receiver and I just don’t see how that would be possible outside of him getting hurt. Speaking of injury, Cobb’s 2013 season was cut short by a leg injury, but before assuming that makes him injury prone, I suggest looking at a replay of the hit. It was just an unlucky injury due to a low tackle that could have happened to anyone. Just because Cobb is short does not make him injury prone, his height/weight ratio is more than adequate to hold up in the NFL and has only missed two games in his other three seasons combined.

Now, let’s get back to the topic of target volume.

Cobb was the WR7 in PPR last year which if impressive by itself, but even more so when you consider he tied for 20th in the league with only 127 targets. Add in the fact Cobb is still only 24-year old and hasn’t even hit his prime yet. Given the efficiency of Aaron Rodgers, I would not bank on Cobb getting 160+ targets like other elite pass catchers but there is no reason to believe that the opportunities will decrease from 2014. If anything, there is a good chance that Cobb’s target volume could increase by 10-15%. The Packers have a trifecta of talented wideouts in Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and Cobb but did not add a prized route running tight end or an explosive pass catching running back so not should change from last year. Rodgers will throw 500-550 times and it’s a safe bet that 125+ of those will be at Mr. Cobb.

The way to score fantasy points is to put numbers on the stat sheet, but high quality on-field play is what allows a player to have an opportunity to do so over a long period of time. The last thing you want to do is heavily invest in a player who has produced stats, but can be easily jumped on the depth chart (James Jones).   This is not a problem since Randall Cobb is a great fantasy asset and a great football player. Due to his smaller size and the fact he lines up in the backfield on rare occasions some people think of Cobb as a “gadget” player who excels due to play calls that get him in space to use his athleticism to make plays. While his open field playmaking is off the charts he is also a complete wide receiver. This former Kentucky Wildcat puts up stats in so many different ways because he runs and excels at the full route tree. He gets open in a variety of ways, has adequate hands and is explosive after the catch. He is also one of hardest wide receivers to take down to the ground since he can make an opponent miss with his quick feet and also has the strength to break away from would be tacklers. It’s pretty simple – getting the ball to Randall Cobb helps the Packers win games which means he will continue to be a focal point of this offense for many years to come.

While I can agree that my WR5 ranking of Cobb might be a bit aggressive, he is my top choice to put money on to have a WR1 season in 2015 AND be a more valuable dynasty asset next year than he is today. While OBJ is the one making everyone drool right now, sneak on in and get yourself the even more efficient sub-6 foot playmaker at a cheaper price.

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