DLF’s Weekly Impact Events

Karl Safchick

bryant

This time of year is simultaneously among the most exciting for me as a football fan and among the toughest for me as a writer who reports the news. On one hand, I get to hypothesize which players will land with which new teams, how they’ll fit in a new scheme and how their arrival will impact the players around them. On the other hand, when I sit down to discuss the news, I must sift through a haystack of speculation to find a needle of truth.

The haystack of speculation can be an advantage to the seasoned dynasty veteran. You, above all others, should have developed a radar – this radar works as a defense mechanism. It alerts you when it has detected bull excrement.

Dynasty players who have not developed such a tool will read headlines which read “Every Great Wide Receiver In The League Is Headed To Tennessee” and go trade two firsts for Zach Mettenberger. That example is complete hyperbole, but I hope you get the idea. Many reporters are projecting the Philadelphia Eagles trading up to select Marcus Mariota in the NFL draft, but we have no proof of this. Simply put, it is purely speculation.

The question then becomes, “how do I take advantage of my speculation haystack truth needle finder (patent pending)?” The answer is simple. Allow your opponents to panic over every news story. When you see a league mate freaking out over the eventual release of a player, buy said player for cheap. On the other side of the coin, if you see a speculation story which could potentially increase the value of a player on your team, don’t be afraid to shop said player around. Take advantage of perceived value of a player based on speculation.

In full disclosure, I will speculate on all of the news items I bring into Impact Events, but I try my darndest not to post an item which is already speculation.

Dez Bryant WR, DAL
News: The Dallas Cowboys have assigned the franchise tag to Bryant.

Analysis: Almost everyone could have seen this coming. Bryant wants big money and like any half intelligent front office, the Cowboys feel reserved to commit the cap space necessary to lock up Bryant long-term. This isn’t about Bryant being one of the best in the game. I know, you know and the Cowboys surely know he is among the current greats. The problem lies in how you want to structure your money when you’re trying to build a Super Bowl contender.

None of this has any effect on his dynasty value, though. He’s still a top six dynasty pick in most formats (unless you’re worried about the video). I doubt the Bryant owner in your league is freaking out over the franchise tag, but if they are, it may be a good time to make an offer.

Demaryius Thomas WR, DEN
News: The Denver Broncos have assigned the franchise tag to Thomas.

Analysis: This is another news item which, while important, won’t be surprising anyone. The Broncos chose to lock up the wide receiver portion of the Thomas duo, tying him to Peyton Manning for what seems to be the final year of Manning’s Hall of Fame career.

Like any good Lost episode, this “answer” only creates more questions. “What will happen to Julius Thomas now?” He will likely hit the free agent market and since there are many tight end needy teams with cap space, he could potentially take his pick of many teams. “How does this affect his dynasty stock?” Many seem to think this young, dynamic tight end is a complete product of a Manning-led offense. Those same people think he’s nothing but an average player and unless he goes to a similarly dynamic offense he has no chance of posting similar numbers. I couldn’t disagree more.

Thomas was asked to be an in line blocker more than any top tight end in the league over the last couple seasons. Sure, some of his efficiency came from catching passes from one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever step on a football field, but most of it came from just being a good pass catcher. Given Thomas’ efficiency numbers, if he were to get more of an opportunity in another city, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibilities he could actually improve on his 2013 and 2014 numbers.

Andre Johnson WR, HOU
News: According to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, the Houston Texans have given Johnson permission to seek a trade.

Analysis: This has been a long time in the making. Johnson wanted a trade last year and even threatened not to play at one point. You really can’t blame the guy. He wants a championship more than I want to know how people ever saw a white and gold dress.

While I challenge you to use news stories to your advantage this week and to not overreact to them, this story may just have legs. Can you imagine Johnson in New England, Seattle or Philadelphia? He could have a Steve Smith-like resurgence.

Now you just have to determine if the previous paragraph was added because I trust your “speculation haystack truth needle finder (patent pending)” tool will kick in or if I actually believe it to be true.

While most people overreact to news stories (fantasy and otherwise), there are groups of people who underreact as well. Google search “AJ Jenkins” news stories from training camp a few years back. They were all negative, but in a dynasty league full of 49ers fans, Jenkins went very early.

While I said earlier that you shouldn’t overreact to every news story, the truth is, you should react. You should just react appropriately. While most owners will overreact and you can capitalize on their faults, some will underreact as well

What are some news stories you or your opponents overreacted to in previous years? Leave your thoughts in the comments section.

Follow me on Twitter @KarlSafchick

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