Dynasty Mythbusters: Denard “Shoelace” Robinson
Another week is now in the rear view mirror and the injuries to fantasy starters continue to pile up. When you add in aging veterans who are in rapid decline there is opportunity for a lot of young players to step on up to the plate and show what they are made of. Some of them look like the stars of tomorrow, but we know from the past that most of them are just a flash in the pan. Of course the tricky part is figuring out who are those special exceptions – that is where I come in. For those of you unfamiliar with the Dynasty Mythbusters series, the goal of the article is to analyze certain trends, potential breakouts or just downright bad play in an attempt to predict what we can expect in the future.
Am I always right? Definitely not. But I did suggest that you sell, sell, sell on Trent Richardson very early in the season last year (before it was a trendy thing to say!) when you could get top five running back prices for him, and ignore the week one “breakouts” of Jerome Simpson and Leonard Hankerson just to name a few.
The fantasy community as a whole tends to have a very strong tendency to overreact to small sample sizes. This is especially true when it comes to early season production. After all, it is only natural after months and months of buildup, thinking your team is great, to get disappointed when your stud disappoints. Don’t go trading them for pennies on the dollar. They will be back. It works in the opposite direction as well. We all like the feeling of grabbing that virtual unknown and watching them turn into the next Jimmy Graham. The problem is the vast majority of the time they don’t pan out and trading your first round pick or an every week starter away for him would be a major mistake.
Through this series, I’ll do my best to focus on guys who are likely to be talked up as potential waiver additions or who are end of the bench guys on most rosters who you might be able to snag with a reasonable trade offer.
This week I’m going to take a look at a running back who flashed in week 7 thanks to injuries and ineffective play. They are going to get the chance for at least a limited period of time, but is he likely to gain value over the next few weeks or be relegated back to the bench down the road?
Denard Robinson, RB JAX
Week Seven totals: 22 carries for 127 yards and one touchdown
Season totals: 50 carries for 221 yards and 1 touchdown. 11 receptions for 37 yards
Known as “Shoelace” for his reluctance to tie his shoes, Robinson spent his college days at Michigan. Early in his career, he was seen as potentially being one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the nation. Over time, it became clear his passing game wasn’t going to develop to an NFL level, but there was no denying the athletic ability he possessed. He was easily one of the most potent weapons on the offensive side of the ball Michigan has seen in many years, if not decades. The question was how he would fit in the NFL.
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He was drafted in the fifth round by Jacksonville in the 2013 draft with his position on the initial depth chart being labeled as “offensive weapon.” This was kind of like the “athlete” designation colleges give to recruits when they have absolutely no idea how they are going to use a player. No one was sure if he was going to be a returner, wide receiver, running back, or possibly play a little quarterback given the lack of success with then quarterback Blaine Gabbert. With 4.43 speed, impressive vertical and broad jumps and nice burst, Robinson definitely had the athleticism to be a successful player if he could find a role.
Thanks to the struggles and injuries of Toby Gerhart and the rest of the running back group, Robinson has slowly earned more and more work. His 127 yards and 22 carries last week were both season highs for any Jaguar running back.
Is it a sign of things to come or was this just a one week wonder?
The Good: Until this last week, I was starting to think the Jaguars’ offensive line just wasn’t any good. It didn’t matter if it was Gerhart, Jordan Todman or rookie Storm Johnson running behind them, there just didn’t seem to be anywhere to go. On the season, that trio is averaging just 2.6 yards per carry, 2.6 yards per carry, and 3.2 yards per carry, respectively. No matter how you slice it, they were all struggling. Robinson was the best of the group by a slim margin averaging 3.35 yards per carry heading into the week seven matchup, but that still isn’t very good. Yet somehow, while Johnson managed another 2.7 yards per carry in week seven, Robinson exploded with an exceptional 5.8 yards per carry mark with a healthy workload. It was easily the best day for any Jaguar running back since week three of the 2012 season about 25 months ago.
During the game, Robinson showed off his athleticism on numerous plays. He showed nice burst through the line and nice speed to the corner on numerous plays. He also showed some of his trademark elusiveness and slipped through multiple attempted arm tackles by defenders. He also did a surprisingly good job of running between the tackles and fitting through small holes, not just bouncing every run to the outside as you might expect from him given his speed and frame. Overall, it was a very impressive and somewhat surprising performance.
The Bad: The most obvious concern about Robinson being a starting running back comes down to his frame. At 6’0” and just under 200 pounds, he doesn’t have the build which is common to NFL running backs. If you make him a few inches shorter or add on 15 pounds, then we are starting to get closer, but he’s rather lean for the position. Every once in a while there is a player who can run with power at a smaller size, but that isn’t the case with Robinson. While he did break numerous tackles on Sunday, almost all of them were arm tackles or cases where the defender was at a poor angle. He wasn’t running through or over tacklers at any point in time – that isn’t his game. His build also adds concerns about if he’ll be able to stay healthy and if he’ll be able to handle blocking assignments in the passing game.
Looking back at what “Shoelace” did in college, another concern has to be ball security. During his time at Michigan he tended to put the ball on the ground a significant amount. Sometimes this was because he was trying to do too much, but he also held the ball away from his frame a little too much. It has been a few years since then, and he seemed to be holding the ball a little bit better during the game on Sunday, but it is still a concern he might fall back into old habits.
The Ugly Truth: The Jaguars seem to be ready to admit their mistake when it comes to expecting Gerhart to be their starting running back. He has been injured and when he has been healthy he was rather ineffective. They have been giving the rest of the group every opportunity to take the leading role. While Johnson has looked about the same as Gerhart, Robinson’s performance has put him in the driver’s seat. With that said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the 22 carries are Robinson’s season high, but I do expect him to be given the starter’s role for the rest of the season. I think the short yardage and goal line work is likely to go to Johnson or maybe Gerhart while Todman continues to handle at least a good portion of the passing down work. Robinson’s best bet for seeing a larger share would be to improve his pass protection and push Todman to the bench.
In the short term, I don’t know how many games Jacksonville will actually be in the lead where they are trying to run the ball and the clock like they were on Sunday. This was the first time they topped 17 points on the season and the first time they focused on the running game. While the two might be connected, passing the ball so much has been prompted by constantly being behind in most game. The 35 carries for the team might be the season high, potentially limiting Robinson’s upside on the season.
Long term, I expect the Jaguars’ offense to take great leaps and bounds over the next few years. However, I’m not sure if Robinson will ever be a fit for anything more than a committee role. He lacks the size and power to run in short yardage situations and his skills in the passing game also need improvement. The latter can be fixed, but the former is likely to keep him as a part time player. The upside here is a back end RB2 or flex play. If he’s out on the waiver wire, he’s definitely worth an add. If he’s on another team, be careful not to overpay as he’s likely to be very inconsistent and his long term role is questionable.
Final Verdict: He’ll be given every chance to be successful this season, but the team around him combined with his size will limit his upside both short and long term. He’s likely to be inconsistent with RB2 upside and a very low floor, making him merely an average dynasty prospect in my eyes.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
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