Dynasty Dupes: Week Four

Rob Shandler Posted On September 25, 2014

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In every one of your dynasty leagues, there are likely a few owners who are prone to overreactions to weekly developments. These “chicken little” types are quick to doubt their long-term player valuations and often, as a result, are not as loyal to their current players. They are cut deep by paltry week-to-week performances and their loyalty wavers more than a Tony Romo popularity metric. As a patient and calculating individual, it is your responsibility to swoop in and take advantage of these impatient owners in order to improve your squad.

In order to benefit from the unsteady hands of these dynasty owners, you need to have a thorough understanding of their psychological trending as influenced by weekly results. You need to be able to psychoanalyze the LeSean McCoy owner who has fallen to 0-3 thanks to a two-point performance from his star running back behind an offensive line decimated by injuries. You also must understand the power of a dominant prime-time performance, which always seems to overshadow the circumstances (like the fact that the dominance just occurred against a horrible secondary). When you combine this psychoanalysis with an unmistakable hiccup on the playing field, you have opportunity!

The bi-weekly Dynasty Dupes Series will provide you with some players you can use as a base for trade proposals. While you may not be able to do the straight up deal, you can easily add some moving parts from solid depth in order to acquire a more valuable dynasty player using the short-term trending of a player’s value. Here are this week’s trade bases.

Offer Ben Roethlisberger for Kirk Cousins

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Roethlisberger is a steady fantasy quarterback capable of some quality performances in certain matchups. He always seems to fall just short of spectacular in the box score, though he is capable of making some fantastic highlight reel throws. He is a mid-to-high end QB2 at this stage in his career, with the Steelers seemingly more willing to pound the ball with burgeoning stud running back Le’Veon Bell behind their finally developing young offensive line. Big Ben was extremely effective on Sunday Night Football as the Steelers absolutely shredded a very stout Panthers defense in primetime. Be sure to mention the awesomeness of Antonio Brown when negotiating.

In the wake of another Robert Griffin injury, Cousins has poignantly proven that he is more than capable of starting in Jay Gruden’s explosive offense in a division that ultimately stinks defensively. He has spread the ball accurately all over the field and is already fantasy’s QB13 in under two full games. Throwing to the same group of weapons that made RG3 such an offseason commodity, Cousins will create a major stir later in the season when his steady, predictable week-to-week performances force Griffin to the pine until his Washington departure. Can that happen? Absolutely. During negotiations to acquire him, though, you’ll be passionately arguing that Cousins is a short-term option filling in for the wildly talented RG3, who had a 98.4 passer rating and 77.5% completion percentage before his freak injury (yes, it was check down central).

This deal may actually have the potential of being a straight up thing. Ben still has name value and many fear Cousins will be watching the fantasy playoffs from the sidelines.

Offer Rashad Jennings for Bishop Sankey

For this dupe to work, you are likely going to have to be in a league where the Sankey owner has gotten off to a hot start and needs a little immediate help at running back to fulfill his/her championship dreams. The owner who drafted Titans’ rookie running back Bishop Sankey likely did so because it was assumed he had much more immediate value than players like Carlos Hyde and Terrance West. There was probably some intention of using Sankey as a flex running back this season and that has not come to fruition quite yet. Sankey’s stat line must be incredibly frustrating to an owner needing more immediate production. Titans’ coaches are nitpicking his footwork while they watch Shonn Greene sloth his way around the backfield. The Titans are a mess offensively – they need an identity.

There is no better way to fulfill someone’s need for immediate production than offering the NFL’s third ranked running back in rushing yardage, who just happens to tote the rock an astonishing 22.7 times per contest. Rashad Jennings absolutely steamrolled the Texans on the ground with 176 yards and a touchdown this past weekend. The Giants are feeding this guy and he is producing. Pay no attention to the fact that he is 29 years old, you’ll say. He still has a lot of tread on his tires after being a backup for much of his career. He is in his prime and is getting the kind of workload that wins you championships (that’s kind of true, by the way). So, if you are contending for the trophy and Jennings is your RB3, you might want to hold off. Jennings actually has fewer career carries than 24-year-old Trent Richardson).

The value paths of these running backs will cross in the near future, with Sankey taking the high road. Sankey will increasingly be seeing more touches every week, while Jennings will likely begin losing a few touches to as-powerful rookie Andre Williams.

Offer Jeremy Maclin (+) for Jordy Nelson

Many informed dynasty owners knew Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin had the ability to replicate DeSean Jackson’s explosive play in Chip Kelly’s incendiary offense. Few had the guts to pull the trigger and pay the relatively low price to acquire him due to injury concerns – those concerns were turned to clinical phobias by a scary incident in the preseason. A few weeks later, Maclin has soared above his doubters and left thousands bitter at a missed opportunity. At just 26 years of age, Maclin is on pace for a 1,578 yard, 16 touchdown season – that’s not going to happen, especially with rookie Jordan Matthews establishing himself in week three. Regardless, Maclin’s value is sky high and now is the perfect time to sell for someone a little less scary long-term. He’s still an injury concern and only working on a one-year deal in Philly, pricing himself higher with every reception. I can promise you Maclin the Ram is not your friend. Naturally, you will not even whisper this possibility. You will paint the picture of a beautiful and fruitful long-term marriage between Maclin and Nick Foles with Pro Bowls a plenty on the horizon.

After years of riding the value roller coaster, Jordy Nelson began to get some respect as a bona fide WR1 after signing a big extension to be Aaron Rodgers’ go-to receiver. He started the season in a big way before struggling like the rest of the Packers offense in a week three contest against the Lions. Nelson, despite his lofty status, is always undervalued by the ageist dynasty owners. He’ll be 30 years old in May, and that number quite frankly scares a lot of owners. You need to determine whether the Nelson owner in your league is an ageist. If he is, offer this trade straight up and when things get sticky, add a 2015 third or fourth rounder. Nelson is going to retire a Packer, which means he will play with Rodgers for the next three or four years and will always be Aaron’s favorite. That, in any dynasty league, is a lifetime. Also favorable for Nelson’s value is the possibility that dynamic slot receiver Randall Cobb may price himself out of Green Bay this off-season as a free agent. This dupe is a safety play for your team on many levels.

Offer Martellus Bennett (+) for Rob Gronkowski

Let me just start by saying this one is possibly going to cost you a 2015 first round pick. Bennett just caught two touchdowns in front of the whole nation and is on pace for 106 catches and 21 touchdowns. Yeah….that’ll happen. Bennett has always been a fast starter then fades as the season wears on and he has benefitted from Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery being hobbled early this year. He is still only 27 years old, meaning he is nowhere near aging out from the dynasty perspective – this is likely the most valuable he will ever be.

As we know, Rob Gronkowski is being slowly worked back into shape. He’s only playing about 50% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps, and the offense is struggling due to that fact. If you don’t play in an experts league, there’s a really good chance that the Gronk owner is not aware that he is only on the field half-time. If that’s the case, you have to believe this owner is a little thin in the patience department after all the crap Gronkowski has put him through. There is a good chance he could bite at an offer of a “top tight end” and a high draft pick. The Brady age conundrum is always playing in the back of the mind of a Gronkian, assuredly. He’s back, but not really. Is it the knee? Is Brady toast? Do yourself a favor and hop all over these doubts.

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