The 100th Edition of the DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

100

Editor’s Note: This week represents a milestone, as DLF celebrates the 100th edition of the DLF Mailbag.  As such, today’s piece was written with the idea of commemorating this momentous occasion.  In that spirit, former Mailman Tim Stafford joins Eric Hardter to provide double the dynasty insight and celebrate this column’s rich history. DLF thanks both of these two writers for all the work put in over the years as they’ve answered nearly 600 questions in detail through within this column. We hope you enjoy today’s special edition, and here’s to the next hundred Mailbags!

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and we’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

1.) I have the first pick in the draft in my 16-team, half-PPR league, and I can’t decide between Johnny Manziel or Sammy Watkins. My rostered quarterbacks include Nick Foles, Carson Palmer and Terrelle Pryor, and at receiver I have Josh Gordon, Randall Cobb, Anquan Boldin, Mike Williams and Miles Austin.  We start one quarterback and two to three receivers. What are your early thoughts?Joe in FL

EH:  This question just goes to show you there really is no such thing as a surefire finality in dynasty football.  For months it’s been assumed that Clemson receiver Sammy Watkins was a lock to be selected at the top of virtually every rookie draft, but in this specific case it’s no slam dunk.  The combination of league size, along with only a half-point awarded per reception certainly slants the relative positional necessity away from pass catchers.

Continuing, though I’m a huge proponent of Philadelphia’s Nick Foles, with only 615 career passing attempts (including the postseason) it’s not as if he’s the league’s most proven commodity.  Behind him are two guys in Carson Palmer and Terrelle Pryor, neither of whom could be confused with a future upper-echelon mainstay.  Taking a signal caller first overall will shore up your depth at the least, and the 2014 rookie crop is significantly better than what we saw last year.

With that said, I’d still go Watkins.  Josh Gordon and Randall Cobb represent a terrific one-two punch at receiver, but your depth past that is lacking.  You can start up to three receivers, so Watkins will likely slot in at your FLEX position while also affording you an enviable trio of young pass catchers.  Nevertheless, it’s a good problem to have.

What do you think, Tim?  Does position trump talent in deeper leagues? Would you consider trying to trade for a veteran instead?

TS:  First off, Eric thanks for inviting me back for the 100th edition of the Mailbag. I’m amazed we’ve made it this far and want to thank you for carrying the torch.

As to Joe’s question, I couldn’t pass on Sammy Watkins unless I was in a 2QB league and even then I’m not sure. While Watkins is not a transcendent talent like AJ Green, he is the cream of this class and a good bit above the next tier of prospects. Watkins has good speed, great hands and excellent technique. The only thing holding him back is his relatively small size. Don’t worry about it. He’s going to be a top-10 dynasty receiver before you know it – that’s too much value to pass on in most formats.

I’m seeing a consistent theme of Nick Foles being undervalued. I suspect dynasty owners want to see a little more before they put their full faith in him. I bet Foles is a top-8 redraft selection once the dust settles this off-season. If you go back and look at the numbers, Foles was behind only Drew Brees and Peyton Manning down the stretch. Clearly a lot of that scoring came in one big game but even if you remove that he still averaged 25.5 PPG. If I owned Foles in a 16-team league, I wouldn’t view quarterback as an area of need at all.

2.) I am going to be in a 16-team PPR dynasty league and we’re having an auction draft for the startup.  I have never done an auction draft and am in need of some helpful advice.Dave in IN

EH:  When it comes to auctions, I think of fast talkers, smashing gavels and the word “Sold!” being exclaimed over and over.  Suffice it to say, I’m the wrong guy to ask about these sorts of things.  Tim – help?

TS:  This topic warrants an article of its own – and there have been several on DLF over the years. I’d recommend going to the DLF Archive and seeing what you find.

Some quick tips:

  • Don’t be Stingy. A very small percentage of the players will account for the bulk of the dollars – assume the top-60 players will eat up about 70% of the available dollars.
  • Don’t get Sleepy. The vast majority of the players drafted will go off the board in the last hour or so of the auction. Why? Because people are out of money so the opening bid will usually win the player. This is when you’ll build your depth.
  • Get your Player(s). The beauty of an auction is for the first time ever, you can have any player or players you want. Go get them. If you believe Josh Gordon is a top-3 WR, then pay like that. Figure the top selections at each position will eat up anywhere from 20-25% of a team’s available auction dollars.

3.) In my 12-team non-PPR league, I have picks 1.01, 1.04 and 1.09 in my rookie draft. With Tony Romo and Geno Smith as my only quarterbacks, my question is should I wait to draft a quarterback next year or pull the trigger now? I was thinking about using the first two picks on a receiver and running back, but what about the third?Richard in CO

EH:  I’ve made the comparison before, but I view Tony Romo as the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy football – despite consistently finishing as a QB1 (he was the QB13 in 2013 with 15 games played), he gets no respect!  Regardless of that general sentiment, I’d have absolutely no problem trotting him out as my starter on a weekly basis.  He has an enviable group of pass-catching options including Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and emerging sophomore Terrance Williams and plays on an offense that likes to throw the ball.  Turning “just” 34 in April, I think Romo should have another 3-4 years of fantasy viability.

So given that, as well as the smaller size of your league, I don’t think adding a first-round signal caller should be high on your list of off-season priorities.  This is one of the deeper drafts in recent memory, and given your picks it’s conceivable you could walk away with the draft’s top receiver, running back and tight end at 1.01, 1.04 and 1.09 respectively.  I’d prefer to walk that route, and address your depth under center at a later date.

TS:  If you are worried about Tony Romo, your best bet is to trade that 1.09 selection for a quarterback. In a 12-team league, the odds are that someone is sitting on two viable starters. I’d rather own Colin Kaepernick, Foles or Russell Wilson than any of the rookies. NFL teams can’t seem to settle on who’s the best quarterback in this class – are you sure you can? I know this is blasphemous, but I don’t think any of these quarterbacks warrant where they will go in the NFL Draft. Positional value is inflating their draft stock. None of them warrants a first round selection in a 12-team/1QB league.

4.) What do you think of Latavius Murray, Mark Ingram, Jordan Todman, Rashad Jennings, Darren McFadden, Vick Ballard, DeAngelo Williams, Shonn Greene and Knile Davis for the 2014 season in a PPR league?Jason in Saskatchewan

EH:  It looks like we’re on a fishing expedition and the prospective catch of the day is upside.  Unfortunately, given the list of the players above, I think you might be walking away with a relatively empty hook.  Let’s consider the contenders.

To me, the likeliest players to hit are one of Latavius Murray or Rashad Jennings.  I’m of the belief that Oakland will bring Jennings back and that he’ll be the de facto RB1 of the offense, but also that he’ll begin to cede work to the younger Murray.  Should Jennings wind up elsewhere, Murray seems to be the safest bet for a full complement of touches.

After that I’d look towards Darren McFadden and Jordan Todman.  We all know McFadden is a talented player, but carries with him constant injury concerns as well as question marks about his ultimate destination.  A reunion with Hue Jackson in Cincinnati is the likely best-case scenario.  With Todman, he could benefit if the Jaguars don’t bring in any competition via free agency or the draft and is worth monitoring at the very least.

None of the other players you listed move the needle for me.  Those options consist of aging players, backups who could be useful down the line (but likely not next year) and pedestrian talents (I’m looking at you, Mark Ingram).  In terms of stashes and end-of-bench types, I think you could do better.

TS: This is the who’s who of RB4/5s. It’s a complete crap shoot in selecting one of them because you’ll need to get a lucky break such as an injury to another player or something to have any chance of starting these guys.

Like Eric, if I was forced to do so, I’d roster Latavius Murray. Many of the other players on this list have already shown you what they can (or can’t) do. Why go back to that well? DMC will get hurt – you heard it here first. DeAngelo Williams will disappoint. Knile Davis won’t get sufficient touches without a Jamaal Charles injury, etc.

It’s not clear from your question why you are considering these players. If you are hoping for 2014 production in an emergency situation, look at Danny Woodhead or Fred Jackson over any of these players. If you want a high upside prospec,t see if the Christine Michael owner is frustrated that Lynch has worked out his legal issues and is set to be the centerpiece of that running game yet again.

Be sure to follow Eric (@EDH_27) and Tim (@dynastytim) on Twitter

eric hardter