Dynasty Stock Market: Mixing in the Rookies II

In last week’s Dynasty Stock Market, I took a first look at what my updated rankings would look like with the top tier rookie quarterbacks and tight ends added to the mix. This week, it’s time to do the same with the running backs and wide receivers.

Last week, I mentioned the confusion that can arise when ranking rookie among veterans. This becomes even more of an issue when considering the running backs and wide receivers. My previous example was receiver Sammy Watkins, who is the expected top pick in upcoming rookie drafts. So, if we can agree that Watkins is the top rookie and each dynasty owner has a price they associate with the 1.01 rookie pick, should that also decide Watkins’ ranking among all wide receivers? I think many owners would give Antonio Brown, for example, in exchange for the 1.01, yet may have a hard time ranking Watkins above Brown. This is something dynasty owners need to determine for themselves, and as we delve deeper into draft season and rookie drafts near, it becomes even more necessary.

Running Backs:

I am really down on our current options at running back, especially after the top seven in my rankings. After that group, I see a pretty significant tier drop and am just as likely to opt for a back ranked in the mid-teens as one at the end of my top ten. So, I as began to consider where I will value the rookies, I decided that I am more apt to take my chance on an unproven rookie rather than a veteran who has passed his prime.

1. LeSean McCoy, PHI
2. Giovani Bernard, CIN
3. Jamaal Charles, KC
4. Eddie Lacy, GB
5. Doug Martin, TB
6. Le’Veon Bell, PIT
7. CJ Spiller, BUF
8. Trent Richardson, IND
9. Shane Vereen, NE
10. Zac Stacy, STL
11. Adrian Peterson, MIN
12. Marshawn Lynch, SEA
13. Matt Forte, CHI
14. DeMarco Murray, DAL
15. Christine Michael, SEA
16. Ryan Mathews, SD
17. Alfred Morris, WAS
18. Marcus Lattimore, SF
19. Andre Ellington, ARZ
20. Ray Rice, BAL
21. Reggie Bush, DET
22. Montee Ball, DEN
23. Arian Foster, HOU
24. Ben Tate, HOU
25. Knowshon Moreno, DEN

Ka’Deem Carey, Arizona

I love the mixture of size and speed that we’ve seen from Ka’Deem Carey during his Arizona career. He can make impressive cuts and has been compared to Le’Sean McCoy thanks in part to that ability. I am a bit worried about his proclivity to look too hard for the perfect hole to run through rather than sometimes being satisfied with a short run or even a run for no gain. I am impressed with Carey’s overall ability and he’s currently my top rookie running back. I think he fits well towards the end of my second tier of running backs, which places him at RB15 behind the Cowboys DeMarco Murray.

Lache Seastrunk, Baylor

It seems like dynasty owners have been looking forward to the arrival of Lache Seastrunk into the NFL for years. In fact, I recently read a DLF article from 2010 mentioning the former Baylor back. For most of that time, he’s been considered the top back in his class, though that designation is starting to be questioned by many as he is criticized for his lack of presence in the passing game and his ability to seemingly only break big runs, lacking consistency. Seastrunk has been called a change of pace back, and that might be true, but we’ve seen the dynasty value of those types of players, especially in recent years. Seastrunk comes in as my RB20, right behind sophomore back Marcus Lattimore.

There are many other rookie backs that I like quite a bit, but there is little separation between them. Because of this, they’ll likely be ranked very closely in the RB25-35 range. This includes Carlos Hyde, Devonta Freeman and Tre Mason.

Here’s what my updated top twenty-five running backs looks like with the addition of this pair of rookies.

1. Le’Sean McCoy, PHI
2. Giovani Bernard, CIN
3. Jamaal Charles, KC
4. Eddie Lacy, GB
5. Doug Martin, TB
6. Le’Veon Bell, PIT
7. CJ Spiller, BUF
8. Trent Richardson, IND
9. Shane Vereen, NE
10. Zac Stacy, STL
11. Adrian Peterson, MIN
12. Marshawn Lynch, SEA
13. Matt Forte, CHI
14. DeMarco Murray, DAL
15. Ka’Deem Carey
16. Christine Michael, SEA
17. Ryan Mathews, SD
18. Alfred Morris, WAS
19. Marcus Lattimore, SF
20. Lache Seastrunk
21. Andre Ellington, ARZ
22. Ray Rice, BAL
23. Reggie Bush, DET
24. Montee Ball, DEN
25. Arian Foster, HOU

Wide Receivers:

The wide receiver position is the complete opposite of the running backs, as I view it. I like to build my teams around wide receivers anyway, and when you add in the fact that the position is as deep as it’s been in years, that seals the deal.

Here are my current top twenty-five wideouts:

1. AJ Green, CIN
2. Dez Bryant, DAL
3. Julio Jones, ATL
4. Josh Gordon, CLE
5. Calvin Johnson, DET
6. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
7. Alshon Jeffery, CHI
8. Randall Cobb, GB
9. Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
10. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
11. Keenan Allen, SD
12. Antonio Brown, PIT
13. Percy Harvin, SEA
14. Michael Floyd, ARZ
15. Brandon Marshall, CHI
16. Torrey Smith, BAL
17. Rueben Randle, NYG
18. Justin Blackmon, JAX
19. Justin Hunter, TEN
20. Kendall Wright, TEN
21. Pierre Garcon, WAS
22. Michael Crabtree, SF
23. DeSean Jackson, PHI
24. Jordy Nelson, GB
25. TY Hilton, IND

Just like the wide receiver position as a whole, the incoming rookie class is very deep, along with being strong at the top. Also, similar to the running back position, the incoming rookie wide receivers are so closely ranked that many of them will begin their careers ranked well into the thirties and forties. Here are the players who are already cracking my top twenty-five.

Sammy Watkins, Clemson

Like most dynasty owners, I consider Sammy Watkins of Clemson the top rookie wide receiver as well as the top overall rookie. Some are wondering if Watkins size will prevent him from entering the elite tier of wideouts, but he has above average speed, great hands and has shown from the beginning of his college career that he can dominate. I mentioned earlier that I don’t hesitate to rank incoming rookies very highly. As you can imagine, that can often bite me, though I am rewarded in many cases. At this point, I’ll rank Watkins as WR10, just ahead of his former teammate DeAndre Hopkins.

Marqise Lee, USC

Former USC wide receiver Marqise Lee was once considered the top dynasty prospect in this class by a long shot, then hit some hard times in southern California. In his final college season, he dealt with some nagging injuries and subpar play from his quarterback. Sound familiar? Yes, this past season’s top rookie wide receiver, Keenan Allen is another player who was once the favorite to be the 1.01 rookie pick of his class, yet fell down the draft board due to injury concerns, along with inconsistent play during his final college season. I don’t think he falls as far as Allen did in last season’s rookie drafts, but he could still be a steal for you. I’ll rank him as my WR17, right behind stud wideout Brandon Marshall.

Mike Evans, Texas A&M

I am not as sold on the pro potential of former Aggie wide receiver Mike Evans as many dynasty owners seem to be, but I still think his efforts alongside quarterback Johnny Manziel are enough to place him among my top twenty-five. Evans displayed some big play ability, but questions have arisen whether Evans made Manziel or Manziel made Evans. I see both as great prospects and valuable dynasty assets. Evans has the size to beat any defender to the ball and if he can run well at net week’s NFL combine, his dynasty stock will skyrocket. For now, I’ll rank him as my WR18, directly behind his rookie classmate Lee.

Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt

There has been a lot of praise lately for Vanderbilt’s Jordan Matthews, which is not surprising since he’s the all time leading receiver in SEC history. That says a lot. Matthews is not the athlete that many of these players are, but he just gets the job done. He has a good combination of size and speed and is an excellent route runner. He has a reputation outworking everyone else, which NFL teams will obviously love. He has to land in the right spot to maintain this initial high ranking and I’ve often seen him mocked to the Lions in the second round. If that plays out, this ranking might be too low. I’ll place him as my WR23, just ahead of Kendall Wright.

That’s all of the rookies that make my current top twenty-five, but if we go much deeper, you’ll find others like Davante Adams, Allen Robinson and Odell Beckham.

Finally, here are my new top twenty-five wideouts:

1. AJ Green, CIN
2. Dez Bryant, DAL
3. Julio Jones, ATL
4. Josh Gordon, CLE
5. Calvin Johnson, DET
6. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
7. Alshon Jeffery, CHI
8. Randall Cobb, GB
9. Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
10. Sammy Watkins
11. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
12. Keenan Allen, SD
13. Antonio Brown, PIT
14. Percy Harvin, SEA
15. Michael Floyd, ARZ
16. Brandon Marshall, CHI
17. Marqise Lee
18. Mike Evans
19. Torrey Smith, BAL
20. Rueben Randle, NYG
21. Justin Blackmon, JAX
22. Justin Hunter, TEN
23. Jordan Matthews
24. Kendall Wright, TEN
25. Pierre Garcon, WAS

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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