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DLF’s Weekly Impact Events

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The 2013 fantasy football season is over, but the dynasty season is just beginning. As you prepare for next season, it’s more important than ever to stay on top of the news. You have to pay close attention to everything to stay on top of your dynasty league. For most of us, we do well to steal some time away from our families and jobs to watch the games on Sunday. It becomes difficult to monitor the daily happenings around the league and even more demanding to process how that news affects your dynasty team. 
That’s why we’re here! 
Here is a quick look at the events of the past week and how they impact the players on your team.

Joique Bell, RB FA

Free agent running back Joique Bell, coming off the best season of his career, hopes to remain with the Lions and sign a long-term contract with the team this off-season. Bell also stated he believes the Lions’ interest in mutual. Though Bell had a very impressive season with nearly 1,200 yards from scrimmage, he will be turning twenty-eight years old before the 2014 season begins, so there will likely not be a huge market for his services. Expect Bell to have similar dynasty value in the upcoming season as he did in 2013.

Bernard Pierce, RB BAL

Ravens running back Bernard Pierce underwent shoulder surgery this week that will sideline him for up to five months. The surgery is no surprise and should not keep Pierce out of camp, but will not help his dynasty value, which was already hurting due to a down 2013 season. Pierce was being hyped in dynasty circles as many expected a straight committee with Ray Rice. Instead, both backs, along with the Ravens’ offense as a whole, struggled. Pierce should be a great buy low target via trade or draft in dynasty leagues this off-season.

Knowshon Moreno, RB DEN

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported this week that the Denver Broncos are not expected to re-sign impending free agent Knowshon Moreno. Moreno will conclude his best season as a pro in this weekend’s Super Bowl, having already accumulated over 1,500 total yards from scrimmage and found the end zone on thirteen occasions. With his upcoming free agency somewhat of a hot topic all year, it seems that many dynasty owners have been expecting him to leave town and the running back friendly offense led by quarterback Peyton Manning. This move looks like a done deal and would have huge implications. Not only would one of 2013’s top five running backs be on the move, but it creates a huge opportunity for a player like Montee Ball, who could see his dynasty value soar.

Jordan Reed, TE WAS

It seems that the news has been all bad for Redskins tight end Jordan Reed since he suffered a serious concussion in week eleven against the Eagles. Finally though, some good news. New head coach coach Jay Gruden has promoted tight ends coach Sean McVay to the position of offensive coordinator and a report surfaced this week, to the surprise of no one, that McVay loves Reed and his ability. Reed has already put up numbers showing he can be a fantasy TE1, so the only question now is his health status.

Peyton Manning, QB DEN

Facing a vast media contingent this week leading up the Sunday’s Super Bowl, Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning said he plans to play in 2014 regardless of the outcome of the team’s matchup against Seattle. As is often the case with an aging star player, there had been some speculation that a Super Bowl win could coax Manning into retirement, but that does not appear to be the case. Manning maintains a high value for dynasty contenders, but is nearly worthless, or even has a negative value, for building teams.

Chris Johnson, RB TEN

It was announced this week that Titans running back Chris Johnson suffered a knee injury way back in week three and recently had surgery to correct this issue. It’s surprising to hear of an injury like this so far after its occurrence, but Johnson’s durability cannot be questioned. Unfortunately, with rumors that the Titans will release him rather than pay his large 2014 contract, the surgery comes at a bad time.  He should be healthy by the time free agency begins, but don’t expect much of a market for his services. Would an eventual signing in Oakland surprise anyone?

Danny Amendola, WR NE

Patriots beat writers consider wide receiver Danny Amendola a candidate to be cut this off-season due to his contract combined with his lack of production. Amendola signed a long-term deal a year ago, but again dealt with injuries and was clearly outplayed by Julian Edelman, who will be a free agent this off-season. With Amendola’s continued injury issues, it’s doubtful he gets another big contract offer from another team if he is let go. He’ll have to play a full healthy season to prove himself in the league.

Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN

With the Vikings recent hiring of Norv Turner as offensive coordinator, expectations for tight end Kyle Rudolph and wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson are through the roof. Turner was not retained after one season in Cleveland, a season which saw breakout years from both Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon. While we may not see the same statistics from the pair of Vikings, it is safe to expect improvement. Patterson was already a player on the rise, being drafted as WR10 in January mocks, and this could make him virtually unattainable in existing leagues.

Benny Cunningham, RB STL

ESPN’s Rams reporter suggests Benny Cunningham is the favorite to earn the primary backup job behind Zac Stacy in 2014. Cunningham was an unknown last year as running backs Isaiah Pead, Daryl Richardson and draft pick Stacy were all being talked about. Surprisingly, Stacy stole the job and Cunningham began to earn more touches than the pair of disappointing backs. Also, there are rumors that Pead may not even survive the off-season with the team.

Fred Davis, TE FA

Free agent tight end Fred Davis, who has spent his entire career with the Redskins, is rumored to be facing a six game suspension due to a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. For a player facing free agency and coming off a disappointing season, it’s a crushing blow. Jordan Reed quickly beat out Davis this past season and reports of Davis being late for meetings along with other unprofessional behavior surfaced. It’s difficult to envision any team signing Davis before his suspension ends, meaning he’ll be facing an off-season of working out and preparing for football away from a team’s camp. This is rarely a good option. Davis has no dynasty value, even in deep or tight end premium leagues.

 

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Ryan McDowell

Ryan McDowell

Senior Writer at Dynasty League Football
In addition to his role as Senior Staff Writer here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and second grade teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the HyperActive Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value. Check out Ryan’s work on the Weekly Impact Events and Dynasty Stock Market, as well as our dynasty ADP data.
Ryan McDowell
19 Comments

19 Comments

  1. Sultan of Swat

    January 31, 2014 at 7:05 am

    What would be an acceptable return for Mike Wallace? He’s been on my team since his 2nd year but I don’t like his role in Miami. I thought about trading him for a pick but I’m having trouble getting more than a 2nd rounder for him. So, I’m considering moving him for Bernard Pierce or Mark Ingram and getting a late round pick. Wallace had 930 yards and 5 TD’s in what will probably go down as the worst season of his career in Miami. He was so underused and ineffective that it is difficult for me to envision a scenario where he doesn’t improve. If he gets 70 more yards and 2 more TD’s next year he would likely be a top 15 WR. I was extremely high on Pierce going into last year but he disappointed epically. However, he may not have been healthy and as an Arian Foster and Ben Tate owner I know what Kubiak can do for a running game. Mark Ingram excites me because I was high on him in his draft year and I realize the sad truth, New Orleans is where young RB’s go to die. I think that Ingram, like Reggie Bush, could be great a star on any other team but the Saints. Reggie Bush was droppable until he left N.O. Ingram is a 2015 free agent and I would like to acquire him on the cheap now. What do you think I should do with Wallace????

    • ChiefsHonk

      January 31, 2014 at 10:09 am

      I actually got Keenan Allen and Zac Stacy in the 2nd round last year but the year before I got Isaiah Pead and LaMichael James. Wallace is holding a 2nd round value over the last 2 years so I would keep him. He is a proven player who could easily have a 5 game hot streak and his value would go up and you could move him then.

    • phantasy5

      February 2, 2014 at 10:40 am

      I traded Wallace during the off-season last year b/c I wasn’t sold on Wallace and all the hype that went into him going to Miami. It turned out to go in my favor. I traded Wallace & Gerhart for Mathews & F. Davis. I think I did way better on that deal based on having Woodhead already! Toby & Fred were just throw ins to get it done which didn’t matter for either team although I dropped Davis he has Peterson which warrants having Gerhart.

  2. James

    January 31, 2014 at 10:24 am

    Cordarelle Patterson – the most overrated fantasy WR since… ever.

    • Sultan of Swat

      January 31, 2014 at 10:49 am

      I’m pretty impressed that Cordarelle Patterson dropped 9 total TD’s despite his lack of playing time and dysfunctional QB situation. However, the name that’s on the tip of your tongue is obviously Tyrone Calico.

      • James

        January 31, 2014 at 2:35 pm

        Problem is the majority of those TDs came on kick returns and runs – have fun banking on those out of your WR1.

        I’m loathe to base a person’s value after just a few weeks of production – Michael Crabtree comes to mind. Also, Flacco, Kaepernick, Maclin, Vick Ballard, etc.

        Sorry, I’m a traditionalist in that I want my WR1 to be an actual WR – not a glorified kick returner and occasional rusher.

        • Chris

          January 31, 2014 at 9:31 pm

          I agree. Hearing people talk about his “total” TD numbers makes no sense to me. You can’t count on returns and the screens will be figured out soon enough and get stuffed. Until he can prove he can catch passes and run routes consistently I’m going to keep in mind his downside is perhaps nearly as big as his upside. I’m not paying wr1 prices for a guy who may never be more than a wr3. You me he is a high end wr3 with potential to be a low wr1 right now.

          • bwitkowski

            February 1, 2014 at 6:39 am

            Screens will not get figured out. I keep hearing people say that about both Patterson and Sammy Watkins. The screen game works because the defender can not manage the WR in bump and run coverage and thus play off the WR. If the defense wants to take away the screen game, it will open up the deep passing lanes. 2 of his 9 touchdowns came on returns so he managed 7 TDs in his last 6 games. Owners should be charging high WR2 prices and if you are not willing to pay it – you will not own him.

          • Chris

            February 1, 2014 at 2:33 pm

            That’s fine but who exactly is the deep threat defenses will have to worry about in MN? And if they do not draft a QB high, then what arm is throwing these dangerous deep passes? It is not as if the DB assigned to patterson is just going to disappear because there is a screen.

            Don’t get me wrong I think he might be a very good fantasy football asset by the end of the year, but he is not currently worth what people are rating him as. It is way easier to name a long list of “raw” WRs that did not succeed than it is to come up with those who did.

    • Willy J

      January 31, 2014 at 5:44 pm

      Agreed.

      Just about all his big plays last year were either a kick return or a play designed to be like a kick return. Proof-

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxbETu6hpLE

      If you want him as a top 15 WR good luck to you.

      • bigefat

        January 31, 2014 at 6:14 pm

        I did see at least 3 pass plays caught from terrible QBs for TDs! I’m not saying I want him as my WR1, but I do see blazing speed, awesome change of direction skills and obvious field vision! Give the kid a year or two to ACTUALLY learn his position on highest stage he can possibly play on with a decent (albeit unknown at this point) QB and you may have a huge stud on your hands! WR 10 is early in a start-up but I’m glad he is my WR4-5 depending on how you rank Cruz (or potentially trade him)!

        • Sultan of Swat

          February 1, 2014 at 5:11 am

          Cordarelle Patterson is going to be a bust….in Canton. He wasn’t a full time receiver until the final 5 games of the season and in those 5 games he scored 3 receiving and 3 rushing TD’s on an offense that was so bad it can only improve. He may not be a star next year but he will be in due time. The point isn’t to compare him to the best WR’s in the game, yet! But, to the other young WR’s from his draft class and I wouldn’t trade him for Austin, Hunter and Hopkins combined or Keenan Allen either. I knew he was a stud the moment I watched his College video, I wish less people were talking about him. He’s 22, relax, give it time. There is no doubt he will one day be a major contributor in all fantasy leagues.

  3. Mike

    January 31, 2014 at 5:33 pm

    Hate to be so excited about situations that affect real peoe in real life, but as a Monte Ball owner I’m estatic.

    • MonteeOwner

      January 31, 2014 at 9:18 pm

      ditto. Pairing Montee with Ellington & Forte, I got a good chance at not sucking at RB this upcoming season. Now if Hopkins can just come around to mid WR2 that he’s teased so far…

      • James

        January 31, 2014 at 9:59 pm

        Montee is a similar RB to Knowshon (mediocre) and will be exposed when Peyton leaves. Good luck with that. Not to mention a little problem with fumbling the ball, a plodding nature, an inability to pass-protect, etc.

        I see a Wilson/Miller-like rise to Hype City USA with a similar outcome.

        • phantasy5

          February 2, 2014 at 10:54 am

          I beg to difer b/c ball security and pass protection are definitely correctable issues. If Ball can have a similar year as Moreno did this past year I’ll take that all next season long for an RB2!

    • phantasy5

      February 2, 2014 at 10:49 am

      You took the words right out of my mouth, I’m friggin’ pumped! I hope this is true about Moreno b/c that would suck if it wasn’t. This couldn’t come at a better time with CJ1K headed elsewhere it leaves my RB2 in question until this news! Wooohooo!

  4. Mike

    February 1, 2014 at 6:18 am

    If Ball gets similar production as Moreno for a few years , I can live with that. If Ball’s hype and value skyrockets and I move him, I can live with that to. Pretty decent for a guy I had just as a “wait and see” bench player. Too much emphasis is put on when Peyton retires. Play for now, but don’t let the trees keep you from seeing the forest either.

  5. phantasy5

    February 2, 2014 at 11:03 am

    I could’ve kicked myself last year for turning down a deal that involved Moreno, Jordan Reed and Stevie J. for Andre Johnson and a pick! Or the fact that LeVeon Bell was on the board @ 1.03 and I chose Ball over him b/c of his injury at the time. Now I feel better that Ball will at least get his opportunity to produce in that prolific offense!

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