2013 IDP Free Agency Blog: Final Update
Free agency is in swing and DLF is ready, as always.
This year, we’ll be covering all the free agency IDP moves as they occur via this blog with our real time (or as close as we can get to it ) analysis of each move and how they impact our world of dynasty leagues. This Premium exclusive blog will be updated constantly as free agency unfolds over the next few days. In addition, we’re also running a special Premium exclusive offensive free agency blog to cover the other side of the football.  Remember to read from the bottom as the most recent events will be listed at the top.
Here we go!
March 17, 2013
As the final update and to wrap-up the last few days of free agent activity, here goes:
ELIVS DUMERVIL RELEASED BY BRONCOS
In one of the more bizarre free agent situations this off-season, Dumervil was released by the Broncos (due to an agent goof) right before agreeing to restructure his contract with the Broncos. That’ll leave an opening starting spot opposite Derek Wolfe at defensive end. I imagine they’ll bring someone in through the draft or even an older guy like Dwight Freeney given the Broncos lack of current depth at the position. Peyton Manning is already lobbying for Freeney to join the team. It’s also possible Dumervil re-signs with the Broncos. If not, second year defensive end Malik Jackson may be an interesting option and therefore a stash in deep dynasty leagues should the Broncos not address the position over the next few months.
From Dumervil’s perspective, it seems like Pittsburgh and Baltimore are expressing interest. If either signs Dumervil, that will be a big hit to his IDP value since he’d move from the defensive end classification to 3-4 outside linebacker. That will mean a significant decline in his value. He needs to sign with another 4-3 defensive in order to maintain his production level. – SW
LADARIUS WEBB RE-SIGNED BY RAVENS
Webb missed much of last season with an injury, but is a top notch option in corner-required leagues. The physical tackling corner routinely posts games with six to seven tackles. He should be back on top if healthy in 2013. – SW
CLIFF AVRIL UPDATE & ‘LEO’ ROLE
As an update to the signing discussion below, it looks like Avril will assume the ‘Leo’ role (or ‘Elephant’ role) in the Seahawks’ defense. If you’re looking for a comparison, just look at Chris Clemons production over the last few years. Avril will certainly be involved rushing the quarterback and double-digit sacks are a certainty. He’s a good bet to return to his 2011 production in this role. -SW
ADRIAN WILSON MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND
While the Patriots have depth at safety with Devin McCourty, Steve Gregory, and Tavon Wilson, they added Adrian Wilson who should serve as a solid role player in a multi-man rotation. This signing should squash any near-term hopes that Tavon Wilson sees increased snaps in his second year. There is now substantial competition for snaps. Adrian Wilson should also struggle to be fantasy relevant given the competition. – SW
MATT SHAUGHNESSY SIGNS WITH CARDINALS
Once a popular sleeper candidate, Shaughnessy will be moving to a 3-4 defensive scheme with the Cardinals. It looks like he’ll start opposite Calais Campbell, but this scheme move significantly caps any breakout or sleeper hopes for Shaughnessy. – SW
LOUIS DELMAS RE-SIGNS WITH LIONS
After testing the market, Delmas came back to the Lions and will likely continue to start at free safety. However, this year Amari Spievey will alos be in the mix. Spievey has struggled to stay healthy, so don’t expect a change in Delmas’s value as compared to 2012. – SW
DWIGHT FREENEY AND JOHN ABRAHAM STILL ON MARKET
Freeney and Abraham are still on the market and could be solid short-term options. Keep an eye on where these two land. Obviously, a 4-3 defense is going to be most beneficial for their production. – SW
March 14, 2013
PHILLY ADDS BARWIN
In an effort to build their 3-4 defense, the Eagles signed outside linebacker Connor Barwin, which may make Trent Cole expendable. Cole is a terrible fit at outside linebacker and is better suited for a 4-3 defense, so this may be an IDP blessing for owners. Don’t be shocked to see Cole released shortly. Otherwise, this signing has little IDP impact. – SW
SAINTS ADD KEENAN LEWIS TO SECONDARY
The Saints signed Keenan Lewis which will have a meaningful impact on cornerback required leagues. Patrick Robinson will likely be moved to the nickel spot with this move and his value will take hit due to the decrease in snaps. Robinson was a favorite as a sleeper last year and ended up finishing as a top 15 corner in most leagues. On the flip side, Lewis should see a nice bump in value given the suspected increase in tackle opportunities as a member of the Saints’ secondary as the Saints’ stellar offense typically results in a high volume of defensive opportunities. – SW
LARON LANDRY LEAVES NEW YORK FOR INDIANAPOLIS
After a solid healthy season in New York that put him in the top ten among safeties in IDP leagues, Landry will take his talent to Indy. If healthy, Landry should again be a top safety in 2013. The risk is obviously his health given the high volume of games he missed prior to the 2012 season. So, if you’re going to bet on Landry, a back-up plan is a must. – SW
JASPER BRINKLEY ADDED TO THE MIX IN ARIZONA
As suspected, Arizona added another potential starting inside linebacker in Brinkley. Lorenzo Alexander (see below) claims he’ll be the starter, but this signing suggests otherwise. It’s a situation to monitor, but Brinkley has the playing experience advantage. Expect this starting spot to come down to a camp battle. – SW
March 13, 2013
SEATTLE SIGNS CLIFF AVRIL
We hadn’t heard much from the free agent defensive ends up to this point, but Seattle fired the first shot. Needing to add a pass rusher to replace the injured Chris Clemons (ACL) and bookend promising second year player Bruce Irvin, the Seahawks signed 26 year old Cliff Avril from Detroit. The five year veteran has tallied 36.5 sacks over his five year career and is coming off a seven and a half sack campaign. Seattle does not have a Ndamukong Suh on their defensive line but they are an active attacking bunch just the same. Avril’s projections won’t change much going from Detroit to Seattle. He goes from playing the poor offensive lines of Green Bay and Chicago four times a year to playing the poor offensive lines of Arizona and St. Louis four times a year.  Expect the about ten sacks from him in 2013.
It means bad news for the Lions. Without Kyle Vanden Bosch, Sammie Lee Hill, and Cliff Avril, the Lions have to totally rebuild their pass rush. Ironically, they signed Jason Jones from Seattle, who is also 26 years old. Jones was a reserve for the Seahawks but played in Tennessee when coach Schwartz ran the defense. Look for the Lions to kick the tires on free agents Michael Bennett and Osi Umenyiora. – EO
MORE CHANGES IN THE CARDINALS’ SECONDARY
Kerry Rhodes was released by the Cardinals today and should sign elsewhere after a solid 2012. The release was more about managing the cap for Arizona than a testament to Rhodes’ ability. I wouldn’t give up on Rhodes until we see what situation he lands in.
Soon after the release of Rhodes, the Cardinals signed Yeremiah Bell who should slide into Rhodes’ starting spot at free safety. Bell’s team change shouldn’t impact on his value or production much.
Continuing the movement in the secondary, the Cardinals also signed Jerraud Powers to lineup across from Patrick Peterson at the cornerback spot. This move should result in more tackle opportunities for Powers as Peterson is one of the better cover corners in the NFL. Expect opposing quarterbacks to be targeting Powers frequently. In corner required leagues, his value is on the rise for 2013. – SW
DASHON GOLDSON TO JOIN TAMPA BAY
Goldson signed with the Bucs earlier and he’ll be their starting free safety. He’s a hard hitter who’s also known for his solid coverage ability. With the presence of Mark Barron at strong safety, Goldson is likely to play center field for the Bucs. From an IDP value perspective, don’t expect much of a change as he’ll continue to be a spot starter for when he has favorable match-ups. – SW
LORENZO ALEXANDER SIGNS WITH CARDINALS
Alexander will join the Cardinals and may find himself in the starting lineup in 2013 next to stud inside linebacker Daryl Washington. Given Alexander was a backup for the Redskins and a majority of his career snaps were at outside linebacker, expect Alexander’s value to rise if he assumes Paris Lenon‘s vacated starting spot. He’s a worthy add at this point depending on league depth with the potential to be an NFL starter. However, keep in mind that the Cardinals are also targeting several other free agent inside linebackers who may be more talented than Alexander. It’s a situation worth keeping an eye on. – SW
STEWART BRADLEY SIGNS WITH BRONCOS
Bradley signed with the Broncos and many are speculating that he’ll be worthy competition to start as the Bronco’s middle linebacker in 2013. Given his inability to win a starting job or maintain significant snaps in recent years, as well as his struggles as a starter in 2010, I wouldn’t bank on it. Expect Nate Irving or one of the young guys (Danny Trevathan or Steven Johnson) to win that job keeping Bradley virtually worthless for IDP purposes. He belongs on the wire. – SW
DETROIT BOLSTERING THEIR SECONDARY
The Lions signed former-Texan Glover Quin this afternoon. While he has some free safety experience and could play either safety position, Quin is likely to slide into the team’s starting strong safety spot with the free agency departure of Louis Delmas. Quin is known to be adequate in coverage given his cornerback background, but he’s also possess solid tackling ability. Given the injury history of Amari Spievey and his tendency to miss time, this move may end up resulting in more opportunities for Quin if Spievey again misses time (less competition from a talent perspective for Quin). At this point, that’s pure speculation, though. There doesn’t appear to be a significant value change for Quin given this signing.
The Lion’s also re-signed cornerback Chris Houston, which won’t result in any value change for Houston headed into the 2013 season. It does appear that the Lions are focused on bolstering their secondary with these two signings, though. – SW
RAVENS RELEASE BERNARD POLLARD
Are the Ravens cleaning house or what? Pollard shouldn’t have an issue finding a job, but the bigger impact will be from a Ravens perspective. With Pollard moving on, second-year player Christian Thompson should be watched in all leagues and stashed in deeper leagues. With both Pollard and Ed Reed out (assuming Reed does not re-sign, which appears likely), it looks like Thompson is in for an expanded role in 2013 especially given the ability to play either safety position. – SW
PAT CHUNG REUNITED WITH CHIP KELLY
The Philadelphia Eagles appeared to solve their ongoing Safety woes last night by signing Pat Chung, formerly of the New England Patriots. Chip Kelly coached Chung at Oregon and is very familiar with his physical and dynamic play making ability on defense. Now fully healed from a pretty nasty foot injury in 2011, Chung will immediately step into the starting strong safety spot for the Eagles. – EO
Once tagged as a top 10 dynasty safety, Chung really struggled last season with the Patriots. While being reunited with Kelly may be beneficial, health concerns will continue to cloud Chung’s value. I wouldn’t be confident in relying on him on a weekly basis headed into 2013 at this point, but there appears to be some upside with the new zip code. – SW
March 12, 2013
DESMOND BRYANT SIGNS WITH THE CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Paul Kruger signing might get the headlines but Bryant will most likely make the bigger impact for the Browns. A 6’6″ 300 pounder with a high motor, he is the perfect defensive end for a Ray Horton defense. Playing next to a mountain of a man, Phil Taylor, Bryant has the potential to creep into the exclusive club of “fantasy relevant 3-4 defensive ends”. I wouldn’t expect him to be the next J.J. Watt, but he should have a Darnell Dockett type of impact and draw enough attention to free up his teammates to make plays. – EO
DOLPHINS SIGN PHILIP WHEELER, RELEASE KEVIN BURNETT
Continuing their linebacker makeover, the Dolphins signed 28 year old ex-Raider Philip Wheeler to a five year $26 million dollar deal with $13 million guaranteed. Strong side linebackers aren’t usually fantasy friendly, but Wheeler does everything well enough to be relevant. He can cover tight ends and running backs, blitz when needed, and defend the run well. He will step into Kevin Burnett‘s fantasy friendly spot and maintain value as a low end LB2, high LB3.
I guess setting a career high in tackles wasn’t enough to save his job. Burnett is only 30 years old and his strength is playing the run. His weakness is the fact he doesn’t really impact games with big plays. He was an every down linebacker last year and failed to record an interception, cause or recover a fumble, and only record two and a half sacks. Obviously the Dolphins were looking to become a more dynamic defense and today’s roster moves exhibit that.
Burnett shouldn’t have trouble finding a home. There are plenty of teams looking for linebacker help. Teams like Baltimore, Dallas, NY Giants, and Oakland all make sense on the surface. – EO
DOLPHINS RELEASE KARLOS DANSBY
As speculated below, Dansby was released by the Dolphins soon after the signing of Dannell Ellerbe. That leaves Ellerbe with the middle linebacker spot and an every down role in Miami. He landed in a perfect situation and will get a chance to prove he’s worth the contract he signed. Ellerbe’s stock is up as a result.
Dansby, on the other hand, should get an opportunity to play a role elsewhere. Keep an eye on where he’s headed. -SW
DANNELL ELLERBE HEADING TO MIAMI
The Dolphins are making a splash on both sides of the ball early in free agency. Unfortunately for the IDP community, the Dolphin’s signing of Ellerbe may be a hit to his value depending on where he plays. With Karlos Dansby in the middle, Kevin Burnett on the weakside, and Koa Misi on the strongside, it’s unclear where Ellerbe fits in. In all likelihood, either Dansby or Burnett are going to be released given their contracts, their ages, and this signing. If not, Ellerbe should assume Misi’s spot.
If Ellerbe plays on the weakside or in the middle, his production will be fine and he’ll remain a solid starting option. The issue will become if he bumps Misi to play the strongside since that position notoriously sees fewer tackle opportunities and IDP production. Keep an eye on this situation over the next few weeks. My guess is a release happens to save cap space and Ellerbe assumes a favorable spot, but at this point, there’s clearly a lot of uncertainty here.
This move also leaves an opportunity in Baltimore at inside linebacker with the loss of Ray Lewis and Ellerbe. Jameel McClain appears to be the immediate beneficiary of this signing and should be a starter in 2013 vaulting his value. It’ll be crucial to keep an eye on this over the next few months as some nice IDP value can be had with those two inside spots. Expect an inside linebacker to be drafted by Baltimore in April’s draft. – SW
PAUL KRUGER SIGNS WITH THE CLEVELAND BROWNS
Taking a page out of Joe Flacco‘s playbook, Kruger cashed in on his career year big time after recording eight and a half sacks while filling in for the injured Terrell Suggs. That brings his four year career total to 15. His new five year $41 million dollar contract with a reported $20 million guaranteed seems awfully steep but the Browns felt it was necessary to bookend Jabaal Sheard in new defensive coordinator Ray Horton’s 3-4 defense and Kruger was the marquee 3-4 pass rusher on the market. Expectations should be held in check for IDP owners. A lot of attention was paid to Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, and company in Baltimore and Cleveland lacks that sort of fire power while transitioning to a new scheme. – EO
I’d add that this move doesn’t do much to change Kruger’s value. He makes a lateral scheme move with no change to his position designation. This is a more significant NFL move than IDP move. – SW
ANTHONY SPENCER SIGNS COWBOYS’ FRANCHISE TENDER
Spencer didn’t waste much time signing Dallas’ franchise tender. The sides have until July 15 to work out a contract or his $10.627 million dollar franchise tag becomes fully guaranteed. With new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin switching the Cowboys to a 4-3 defense, Spencer is going to continue to be an impact IDP player but now from the defensive end spot. Â Spencer, who was a defensive end at Purdue, has played 3-4 outside linebacker since being drafted by the Cowboys.
This move is actually a big boost to his IDP value. With a lot of teams moving to a 3-4 defense, elite pass rushing defensive ends are going to be precious commodities, and Spencer will be a threat to flirt with double digit sacks playing opposite DeMarcus Ware on a very aggressive Tampa-2 defense. – EO
LARRY FOOTE RE-SIGNS WITH THE STEELERS
After drawing interest from at least the Cardinals, Foote re-signs with the Steelers to be Lawrence Timmons’ running mate. Coming off his best statistical season of his career, this was the best case scenario for his fantasy value. Soon to be 33 years old, his three year contract will not prohibit the Steelers from drafting his replacement in the upcoming NFL Draft. Foote remains relevant for deeper IDP leagues for now but could face competition as soon as training camp. – EO
CORNERBACKS IN-FLUX
The early action is on the cornerback front, which isn’t relevant to all IDP owners.
Nnamdi Asomugha was released by the Eagles today leaving second year cornerback Brandon Boykin as a current starter. Boykin may be better suited for the slot ultimately, but he’s likely to be targeted frequently if he holds a starting spot come the beginning of the 2013 season. In corner required leagues, Boykin is a worthy stash with the anticipated increase in snaps given his rookie season production in limited snaps, especially if you receive points for return yardage.
The Vikings also released Antoine Winfield today, which leaves Josh Robinson as a starter in 2013. Robinson is known for his tackling ability, so expect the second year player to be active in the box score and a popular sleeper cornerback in 2013. From a long-term perspective, Robinson will continue to be appealing given his natural tackling ability. As far as Winfield is concerned, while he’s older, injury prone, and close to retirement, he should receive interest from corner-hungry teams and can still be a worthy spot starter in corner required leagues given his aggressive tendencies. – SW
Pre-March 12, 2013
CARDINALS RE-SIGN RASHAD JOHNSON, SS
The Cardinals are still likely to target a strong safety in the draft or free agency to compete for the open starting strong safety spot, but they re-signed Johnson to fill an immediate need. With Adrian Wilson released earlier this off-season, Johnson is currently positioned to start in 2013. We’ll have to see what they add in the draft/free agency, but either way Johnson is a good bet to see an expanded role next season.
Given the improvement the former third round pick has shown over the past few years, as well as his production while starting nine games in 2011, Johnson is a solid short-term addition given the upside he presents as a starter in 2013. Just keep in mind that he’s unlikely to be a long-term solution for both the Cardinals and your fantasy squad.
CHIEFS SIGN DUNTA ROBINSON, DB
The Chiefs entered the 2013 off-season with significant needs in their secondary at both the free safety and cornerback positions. They immediately addressed that with the signing of Robinson. While Robinson played corner his entire career to date, recent speculation suggests that he may have been signed to fill the free safety spot. If that’s the case, Robinson’s IDP relevance would increase as compared to corner as he’d likely see increased tackle opportunities at the safety.
Robinson is known for his tackling ability and a move to free safety would be a nice complement to Eric Berry.
If Robinson keeps the cornerback designation and plays out of the free safety spot, he’ll be a sneaky start at corner in IDP leagues for the 2013 season. However, if he sticks at the cornerback spot for the Chiefs, he’ll likely see a decline in production as compared to his 2012 season since his overall tackle opportunities should decline with the Chiefs as they’re unlikely to be playing from ahead on a consistent basis.
CULLEN JENKINS, DT, SIGNS WITH NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants released Chris Canty this off-season and quickly replaced him with Jenkins. The former Eagle will immediately enter the starting lineup next to Linval Joseph. While Jenkins brings a pass-rushing dynamic to the defensive line as exhibited by his 2012 season (25 hurries and 4 sacks in 2012), Joseph is the more relevant tackle for the Giants. Given Joseph’s 2012 season and age, expect him to continue to dominate the bulk of the snaps in 2013.
Unless you’re in a deep defensive tackle required league, Jenkins won’t be terribly relevant despite an occasional spot start due to a favorable match-up.
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