Inside the Mind of a Fantasy Expert
The phenomenon known as Twitter has given everyday people the chance to interact with each other in a whole new way. This is never more evident than in the fantasy football community. Each day on Twitter, fantasy leagues are formed, trade and lineup advice is shared and bonds are created.
Since I became active on Twitter, fantasy football has dramatically changed for me. Pre-Twitter, I was active on one specific fantasy site and thought less of anyone who preferred any other avenue of information or interaction. I joined leagues with other users of this specific site and did not consider branching out from that comfortable space. Joining and becoming active on Twitter has not only provided me with a platform to share my ideas, but more importantly has given me an avenue to learn from others. There are many people I consider fantasy experts who I have the opportunity to share with and learn from on a daily basis. Hopefully, you have experienced this as well. Also, I have had the fortune to join or even manage multiple leagues featuring some of these experts.
While Twitter provides an avenue for availability and advice from fantasy experts, I want to take you deeper inside the mind of a fantasy expert. As I said, I am lucky enough to play in multiple leagues with experts and staff writers from every fantasy site imaginable from DLF to Footballguys to ProFootballFocus. I play with half of the 2Mugs and some of the boys from Rotoworld. You name the site and I probably play with and against some of the genius fantasy minds behind that site’s content. These guys are not unlike you. They made some connections or took the initiative to start their own site. They worked endless hours for little or no financial gain to earn the title of expert. The transactions they make in their own leagues might surprise you, though. These guys have teams that are not contending, just like you. They are in the middle of rebuilding a dynasty team, just like you. Some of them have powerhouse squads, just like you. Now, together, we’ll take a look at some of the moves being made by the experts and I will provide some commentary on those transactions, along with the state of their team.
With a new series like this, there’s no better league to start with than the brand new DLF Staff Dynasty League. The bosses here at DLF got a couple of groups together and created two dynasty leagues this off-season, filled with our own writers. I am the commissioner of the non-IDP league and we have a strong group of owners. As you will typically see, there have been few trades following our May startup draft. After all, owners are only drafting players they like, and therefore don’t feel inclined to make many moves early on. But, through some unique circumstances, we had the need to hold a two team dispersal draft. As I’ve mentioned in past articles, a dispersal draft and the introduction of new owners to an existing league, even a young one such as this, can really invigorate a league and often leads to multiple trades. That is just what happened in the DLF Staff League.
Over the past two weeks, there have been nine completed deals in the league. Let’s take a look at each of those and what each owner might have been thinking.
Trade #1: Cierre Wood for Latavius Murray
This first deal was one I was involved with and is a fairly straightforward deal. One of our new owners, Jason Blanton, had acquired Latavius Murray in the dispersal draft and despite his injury, I was interested in acquiring the high upside rookie. This deal was quickly and simply consummated. I inquired about what Jason might want for Murray, and knowing his value was down, he began looking at my “end of bench” players. He asked for Texans rookie Cierre Wood, the third stringer for the Texans and the deal was done. Though I like the opportunity Wood could have in Houston, I still prefer Murray. Plus, acquiring Murray allowed me to stash him on my team’s injured reserve spot for the season, hence opening another spot on my active roster. In the end, this deal looks like a win-win now, but the long-term careers of these two young backs will ultimately decide who won this trade.
Trade #2: Antonio Brown/2014 1st for Markus Wheaton/2014 2nd
This deal, agreed to by Eric Dickens and Chris Rohrer, is an interesting one. I don’t quite understand it, but Antonio Brown’s value has really seemed to drop this off-season, despite the departure of former top wide receiver Mike Wallace. On the other hand, reports surrounding Steelers rookie Markus Wheaton have nearly all been positive and with the lack of depth behind Brown, Wheaton could play a large role for the team early in his rookie season. Clearly, Brown is still worth more than Wheaton, which is evident by the pick swap that is part of this deal.
Both teams have some stud players, but neither are especially deep, which is usually the case early on after a startup draft. Led by Matthew Stafford, Giovani Bernard, Doug Martin and Kenny Britt, Eric could be on the outside looking in this season, but he also has Percy Harvin and Rob Gronkowski, not to mention young players like Wheaton, so he should surely be a contender in 2014 and beyond.
Chris adds Brown to a veteran group of wideouts and strengthens his starting squad, improving his chances of making the playoffs this season, but with a lack of marquee youth and no first round pick in 2014, he will have to be active in order to avoid his team losing its competitive edge. I doubt that will be an issue.
Trade #3: Eddie Lacy/Michael Floyd for Percy Harvin/Marquess Wilson/2014 3rd
Yet another deal involving Mr. Dickens and in this one, he takes the rare chance to acquire an elite receiver, giving up the pair of young players (Eddie Lacy and Michael Floyd) to Eric Hardter. With a strong group of dynasty experts, it’s no surprise to see another deal that is tough to pick a side. On one hand, Lacy and Floyd are two players receiving a ton of hype, with some already declaring Floyd a top ten dynasty wide receiver. It’s tough to give up that long-term hope and promise, but when a player like Percy Harvin is on the other side, it becomes easier.
Hardter adds depth at both the running back and receiver spots and his squad will be tough to beat this year. I know, I faced him this week! For Dickens, I think he simply took the chance to acquire a stud when he could. Yet another deal that works for both owners.
Trade #4: Kenny Stills for Brian Quick
I’m sensing a pattern here. This is another deal involving Dickens, this time pulling off the wide receiver swap with my team. I am in several leagues with Eric and noticed he had been making a lot of offers. When I see this from anyone, it is obvious that the owner is in a “trading mood.” This is somewhat rare among most dynasty owners, but when I pick up on the fact that someone is ready to make a deal, I look to see if there’s anything that will work for both sides.
I had regretted drafting Rams receiver Brian Quick and had made a few trade offers attempting to flip him without any luck. When I perused Eric’s roster, I noticed one of my favorite rookies, Saints wide receiver Kenny Stills. Knowing I was giving up the more valuable dynasty player, I made the one-for-one offer, which was quickly accepted. Our dynasty ADP data tells us that Quick is clearly worth more, but he is just not a player I believed in. Stills will likely not give me much this year, but is a prospect I am happy to hold for a year or so.
Trade #5: Ronnie Hillman for Chris Givens
One more even up deal, this time the running back for wide receiver variety between Jacob Feldman and Karl Safchick. This is a case of two players whose value seems to be going in the opposite direction. Second year running back Ronnie Hillman was once considered as the favorite to win the starting job in Denver, but his pass blocking is still enough of an issue that he could end up as the third option behind veteran Knowshon Moreno and rookie Monte Ball. My first thought was that Karl must have a need at running back, but he already owns Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and Daryl Richardson and is only required to start one runner. He also features strong wide receiver depth and could afford to lose upstart wide receiver Chris Givens.
Jacob also has a strong receiver corps and hedges his Tavon Austin bet with the acquisition of Givens. In the crowded Denver backfield, Hillman could surely turn things around and see his dynasty value rise, but for now, it looks like Jacob came out on top of this deal.
Trade #6: Robert Griffin III/Felix Jones/2014 1st for Peyton Manning/Marques Colston
Here is the second consecutive deal for Karl, this time striking an agreement with Jaron Foster. Karl came away from the dispersal draft with both Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford. He made it clear he was willing to move one of the quarterbacks and did just that. Surprisingly, he acquired another quarterback in the deal, but to the surprise of no one, the Redskins fan targeted Robert Griffin III. As I mentioned, Karl also boasts a deep group of wide receivers, allowing him to deal Marques Colston, while acquiring a first round pick in the deep 2014 class.
Jaron has a team built to win now, so acquiring two veterans is a great move for him. Manning is likely to outscore Griffin this season and Colston gives Jaron another starting caliber wide receiver. Adding those two to Arian Foster, Steven Jackson, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen and Pierre Garcon gives him a title contender. This is another deal that makes sense for both owners.
Trade #7: Julio Jones/Christine Michael for AJ Green/Marcus Lattimore
This was a challenge to come to an agreement on and I’m still not sure how I feel about the deal. I was involved in this one and surprisingly, I am the one giving AJ Green, who is my top overall dynasty player. I routinely have taken Green with the 1.01 pick in mocks and startup drafts and made that decision in this startup drafts just a few months ago.
When Jason joined the league, I was well aware that he was a die-hard Bengals fan and assumed he’d be interested in Green. Once he acquired Julio Jones in the dispersal draft, the skeleton of a dynasty deal was in place. As is typical for me in the first year of a new dynasty, I was weak at running back. My running back group is filled with youth and upside, but few reliable starting level players. While rookie Christine Michael is not at that level either, the chance to acquire him in exchange for injured rookie Marcus Lattimore was a move I had to make. I am still unlikely to compete in year one, but I like the base of my team, which includes Cam Newton, David Wilson, Michael, Bernard Pierce, Jones, Josh Gordon and DeAndre Hopkins.
Jason has quickly built a team with a good balance of youth and veterans and adding a player like Green is always a good thing. In our trade talks, Jason also mentioned that he prefers Lattimore to Michael over the long term. That fact made the deal a slam dunk for his team.
Trade #8: Miles Austin/2014 1st/2014 3rd for Matthew Stafford
I mentioned earlier that Karl had a pair of top ten quarterbacks, so it was clear he felt like he could move one of those for help at other positions and draft picks – that is exactly what he did when he dealt Stafford to Eric Dickens for veteran receiver Miles Austin and a pair of 2014 draft picks. Once he acquired Griffin, it was evident that Stafford would be available and with only Sam Bradford and EJ Manuel, Eric knew he had to acquire a top end starter. Austin was a starter for Eric, but this is still a good price for Stafford and should help Eric’s team all around.
For Karl, he was dealing from depth, so though the deal may not look great in a vacuum, it makes a lot of sense for his squad. Austin is another starting level player for Karl, to go along with Justin Blackmon, TY Hilton, Vincent Jackson and James Jones. Karl is built to win now, but still has a need at the tight end position.
Trade #9: Knile Davis/Ladarius Green for Ed Dickson/Kirk Cousins/2014 4th
While this is a minor deal, it truly made sense for both teams. Since Karl had acquired Ladarius Green in the dispersal draft, I had been shooting him offer after offer in attempt to acquire the young San Diego backup tight end. As I mentioned, Karl had a need at tight end with only youngsters Green and Zach Ertz. While Ed Dickson is clearly not a high end fantasy starter, he should be a solid stop gap option. Also, since Karl had recently acquired Griffin, Kirk Cousins was a sensible trade target for him. Karl added the rookie Knile Davis, which helped me since I need all the running backs I can get and we sealed the deal.
So, there it is. Two weeks is the DLF Staff Dynasty League and all of the deals that have been made as the dynasty experts prepare for the start to the season. Please share what you think about any of the dynasty deals mentioned in the article. We’d love to have your feedback.
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