Predicting Rookie Drafts Using Recent ADP Data

Ryan McDowell Posted On March 23, 2013

Over the past three months, I have conducted a total of eighteen dynasty start-up mock drafts. Many of you have participated in these drafts and I plan to continue them throughout the off-season in preparation for start-up drafts and the 2013 dynasty fantasy football season.

In an off-season full of events, dynasty owners look forward to the Rookie Combine, NFL free agency, the NFL draft and the start of training camps, while I relish the chance to participate in these mock drafts and analyze the data they produce. The most obvious use of the average draft position (ADP) data is in preparing for an upcoming startup draft. While the data is not foolproof, it can give owners a good idea of where a specific player may be drafted and when position runs might begin.

The ADP data is not just for owners participating in new leagues, though. Owners in existing dynasty leagues can also use it. I’ll cover just a couple of ways the data could be valuable.

First, owners can use it to evaluate potential trades. Again, this is not the only tool one should use, but it can give owners a good idea of the current market value of certain players. Roster strength and team dynamics would, of course, play a large role in creating a balanced trade in any dynasty league.

Another way to use the ADP data is to analyze a dynasty roster – this is something I have been doing lately. In the average start-up draft, an owner will leave the draft with one player valued as a first round pick, one valued as a second round pick and so on. If your dynasty team is filled with multiple highly valued players, then you are likely a playoff contender. On the other hand, if your team lacks players routinely being chosen in the first three rounds, it may be time to rebuild and look towards the future.

Another way to use the data this time of year is to predict and prepare for upcoming rookie drafts in your dynasty league. Many rookie drafts will begin the same weekend as the NFL draft, or very soon after. Even the diehard NFL fans and fantasy players who position themselves in front of the television the entire draft weekend could feel unprepared for the quick turnaround for rookie drafts.

This week, I will take a look at the ADP data, specifically the data for the incoming rookie class. Again, this is not foolproof data, as there is plenty of time for circumstances to change as the draft approaches. Also, specific team needs can always have a huge impact in a rookie only draft.

Potential Rookie Pick Position	Name	Position	March ADP
1.01	Eddie Lacy	RB	43.5
1.02	Giovani Bernard	RB	66.5
1.03	Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	71.2
1.04	Keenan Allen	WR	87.8
1.05	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	101.7
1.06	Marcus Lattimore	RB	103.7
1.07	Tavon Austin	WR	106.5
1.08	Montee Ball	RB	107.5
1.09	Tyler Eifert	TE	116
1.10	Justin Hunter	WR	120.8
1.11	Johnathan Franklin	RB	133.7
1.12	Andre Ellington	RB	144.3

When glancing at the potential first round picks in a twelve team league, it’s easy to spot some clear tiers developing. Eddie Lacy has been entrenched as the top choice for the majority of the off-season, although that could easily change depending on his landing spot. He is followed by another running back (Giovani Bernard from North Carolina), although former Tennessee Volunteer wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson has been closing the gap on the second spot.

After Patterson is a big drop to wide receiver Keenan Allen, who seems to be in a tier of his own. Allen was once considered the favorite to be the top rookie off the board in PPR leagues, but a nagging knee injury has caused him to drop. He even had to meet with infamous Dr. James Andrews, which is almost never good news. Don’t be surprised to see the next two wide receivers, DeAndre Hopkins and Tavon Austin to bypass Allen in many rookie drafts.

Among the two running backs who round out the fourth tier of rookies is one of the most popular topics among dynasty league owners – the draft spot of former South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore. Before suffering a devastating knee injury last season, Lattimore was the hands down choice to be the top overall rookie pick, but there are doubts if he will even be able to suit up in 2013. With a class lacking elite talent, many owners could be willing to take a risk on Lattimore in the first round. The end of the round includes the top rookie tight end, Tyler Eiffert, who is considered one of the safest picks in the draft and is already being drafted as a top ten tight end. The late first round also is the beginning of a long run on running backs lasting throughout the entire second round.

Potential Rookie Pick Position	Name	Position	March ADP
2.01	Robert Woods	WR	146
2.02	Geno Smith	QB	149.7
2.03	Quinton Patton	WR	152.8
2.04	Zach Ertz	TE	155.7
2.05	Da’Rick Rogers	WR	155.8
2.06	Le’Veon Bell	RB	158.7
2.07	Christine Michael	RB	163.5
2.08	Stepfan Taylor	RB	168.2
2.09	Knile Davis	RB	172.5
2.10	Joseph Randle	RB	173.8
2.11	Markus Wheaton	WR	175.2
2.12	Zac Stacy	RB	180.2

While the second round is full of running backs, it’s the two wide receivers who have my attention. Both Robert Woods and Da’Rick Rogers have the upside and ability to end up as the top wideouts in the class. The running backs in this group will have their ultimate draft position dictated by their landing spot in late April. It is very possible that one of these players will be drafted by the Green Bay Packers or Pittsburgh Steelers and as a result, will be overdrafted by many owners. On the other hand, one could be drafted by the Browns to backup Trent Richardson, or the Buccaneers to spell Doug Martin, leading many to place less value on them.

Potential Rookie Pick Position	Name	Position	March ADP
3.01	Mike Gillislee	RB	186.7
3.02	Terrance Williams	WR	187.3
3.03	Stedman Bailey	WR	197.5
3.04	Kenjon Barner	RB	198.8
3.05	Marquise Goodwin	WR	209.7
3.06	Matt Barkley	QB	213
3.07	Gavin Escobar	TE	214
3.08	Jawan Jamison	RB	222.2
3.09	Marquess Wilson	WR	227.3
3.10	Ray Graham	RB	229.2
3.11	Travis Kelce	TE	229.7
3.12	Aaron Dobson	WR	231.7

The third round is a potpourri of positions with owners starting to swing for the fences. We also see the second quarterback, Matt Barkley. This is another position that is in flux. The next quarterback of the Arizona Cardinals will likely be the rookie QB2, if not the top passer chosen, regardless of whom they choose. Again, the small gap in ADP is obvious, meaning these players could easily go several spots higher or lower once their team and situation is known.

Potential Rookie Pick Position	Name	Position	March ADP
4.01	Ryan Nassib	QB	231.9
4.02	Tavarres King	WR	231.2
4.03	EJ Manuel	QB	233.5
4.04	Cierre Wood	RB	234
4.05	Josh Boyce	WR	234.7
4.06	Chris Harper	WR	236.8
4.07	Mike Glennon	QB	238.2
4.08	Tyler Bray	QB	238.2
4.09	Tyler Wilson	QB	239.3
4.10	Matt Scott	QB	239.3
4.11	Denard Robinson	WR	240.5
4.12	Jordan Reed	TE	240.7

Considering many dynasty leagues do not even have four rounds in their rookie draft, this is the ultimate lottery ticket round. Half the players chosen this round are quarterbacks and that is no surprise. First, this is not considered to be a strong quarterback class, but some of these names are well known to those that follow college football and the pre-draft activities. I love taking quarterbacks late in rookie drafts. In most cases, they will get a chance to start at some point and that will give them instant dynasty value.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.