Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) I would like your opinion on Ryan Williams’ value. I just got him cheaply to fill my last RB position. My hope is with Arians there and a renewed offensive approach that Williams might have some decent value? – Dave in Indiana
Ryan Williams’ issues haven’t been the offensive system, they’ve been his knees. He’s played five games in his two years in the NFL. It’s hard to put up numbers when you aren’t on the field.
You say you “got him cheaply” and I like that. Because of the injuries, Williams should come at a deep discount in a trade and like you I’m buying at the right price. My expectation is that Arizona will give him right around 15 touches per game to start out the season. If he performs well with those and his knees continue to hold up, they’ll build on that a bit. Even at 15 touches he’s going to be a low-end RB2 option.
It’s easy to forget that Williams was a very dynamic prospect coming out of Virginia Tech. He was the clear cut choice at 1.04 in rookie drafts that occurred before his preseason injury. Unfortunately for owners, they’ve had to be extremely patient with Williams. Hopefully that patience pays off in 2013.
2.) I need a TE. Are there any worthy of a first round rookie pick in a 12-team league? – Jason in Oregon
You don’t mention whether this is a “TE premium league,” so I’ll assume it is not.
Generally speaking, I’m resistant to taking a TE in the first round of a 12-team rookie draft. However, it depends in part on your starting lineup options. I play in a league that has a WR/TE flex slot, so that boosts TE value to some degree.
The reason to avoid TEs in the first round is simple – positional scarcity at RB and WR. In leagues where each team only starts one TE, there are plenty to go around. This is the same argument used for waiting on QB in redraft formats.
Additionally, there are a ton of developmental TEs floating around fantasy leagues right now. Robert Housler, Taylor Thompson, Lance Kendricks, Jordan Cameron and I could go on and on. My bet is that most of those guys could be had for a second round (or later) rookie pick, so why use a first on a guy just joining the league?
Last but not least, this is a deep class at RB, WR and TE. I’d rather use my first round rookie pick to get the best available RB or WR and then see where I could get a tier two TE prospect. Most of the talk right now is about Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert. I’m going to tell you not to sleep on Travis Kelce. Just remember who told you about him when he becomes a steal in the late second or early third of your rookie draft.
3.) Can I count on David Wilson to be my RB2 in a non-PPR, 12-team league? – Braxton from L.A.
I don’t think you can count on David Wilson as a RB2 in any format. I can’t recall more of a spike in a player’s value than what we’ve seen with Wilson over the last several months. He went from a spot starter in fantasy to being projected to be a set-it-and-forget-it level stud.
While Wilson has tremendous athletic talent, he has some issues as a player – most notably his inability to pass protect. Wilson owners need to understand Eli Manning is considered the franchise asset in NY and if Wilson can’t protect him he will assuredly lose snaps to the other RBs on the team. It’s that simple.
As a Wilson owner myself I am excited to see what he can do in 2013, but I think we need to temper our expectations. If he gets 15-18 touches per game he’ll be a solid RB2 simply because of his big play upside. I want to see him get that number of touches in a couple of games before I could tell owners that they can “count on him.”
4.) I have the 1.01 and need a RB. I want to trade for a veteran. Who can I expect to get? – Chris in Nashville
I like your thinking. If you are targeting a specific position of need in the rookie draft, it’s always best to explore a trade before making your pick.
While this draft lacks a Trent Richardson, you’ll still get premium value for the 1.01. It carries a lot of cache and I have a sneaking suspicion that people will become enamored with either Cordarrelle Patterson or Eddie Lacy pretty soon.
My advice would be to start high and work your way down your list. My first tier of players that I’d target would be Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles and CJ Spiller. Then I’d drop to Matt Forte, Alfred Morris and Stevan Ridley. This would be followed by CJ2K, David Wilson and DeMarco Murray. But set your own tiers, those are just mine and I’d probably target them in a different order in every league depending on my roster and the rosters of the other owners.
Last thing; remember to wait until closer to draft time to offer up the 1.01. It will be at peak value in early May.
5.) Our league is considering moving the rookie draft further back. When do you think is the best time to hold it? – Sean in Dublin
Always a dynasty conundrum – owners are anxious for some off-season activity, but patience is rewarded with a clearer picture once training camp and the preseason games are underway.
It strikes me that the only two times that make sense for rookie drafts are either right after the NFL draft or sometime during the preseason schedule. Very little information of any meaningful value comes out in between those times.
My leagues all conduct the rookie draft right after the NFL draft. I think this is mostly because we crave some sort of fantasy activity after five months are relative dormancy. I enjoy the rookie draft tremendously and therefore I tend to like this approach.
On the other hand, the downside is what happened in 2011. Owners picked the aforementioned Ryan Williams and Mikel Leshoure in May only to enter the season with them already IR. While that’s a part of the game, it also kind of stinks.
I’m old school, so when this comes up for vote in my league (and it does nearly annually) I always vote to keep it right after the NFL draft. Give me some fantasy action ASAP!
Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.
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I’m trying to get Lamar miller with danario, dujuan and Kendall hunter. He already turned down dujuan and danario. I figure I’m selling high on danario (knee) and dujuan (obvious reasons) and prob selling low on kendall. but admit I’m probably buying high on miller. Anyone have any thoughts in this?
I’m excited about Lamar Miller and I think he’ll end up with the lion’s share of the work in MIA. Having said that, you’re definitely paying too much. Kendall Hunter was a better prospect than Miller before the Achilles injury and it’s certainly possible that when 2014 rolls around Hunter will be worth more again. It’s also possible he never regains form, but now is not the time to sell. I liked your first offer, but understand why he didn’t take it. If you really want Miller and are willing to part with Hunter, I’d recommend pairing hunter and Harris or DX, but not both.
I would hold onto Hunter but that is just me….achilles tough but guys are coming back from it pretty well now a days…every report I have yeard is he is well ahead of scheudule and they expect him to be ready for training camp…this sounds too soon for me but that is what they are saying…if hunter comes back ok he will be starting RB in San Fran with in 2 years…Gore had great year but he is slowing down it was noticable as he got visably gassed after a 20 yard run last year Hunter could even take over lead back second half of next year if he really comes back ok including him here swings trade a little in other guys favor but I like your thinking on Danario as only a matter of time until is is on IR again on knee’s that have had 7 surguries…dujuan is a complete throw in at this point
I have pretty good talent at RB poisition. CJ Spiller, Murray and D. Wilson are the players I will be counting on. With Tate, Turbin and Helu as projects. We play on a 12 team Dynasty a league with 21 roster spots. I have been offered an early second round pick for either Tate or Turbin. Is that about the right trade value for those players when you compare it to the talent that will be available at those draft positions in a rookie draft? Or do they have more value than this years rookies?
I’d hold on to Turbin and Tate and drop Helu if I needed the roster space.
Sell Turbin, keep Tate and don’t look back.
I would do it for Turbin but not Tate IMO Tate is a stud only issue has been injuries if he can get over the injury bug this kid could be a absolute star Turbin is solid hard nosed runner but I don’t see anywhere near the same talent level as Tate
Your notes on Ryan Williams are misleading. “If his knees continue to hold up” ??? You fail to mention that the time he missed in his second season was due to a shoulder injury which obviously had nothing to do with his knees.
Nitpick much? It’s well known that the knees are the bigger issue than the shoulder. Why don’t you find some grammatical errors to point out too while you’re at it.
amen baby….nail those nitpicking pissants
Question. Would you trade Pierre Garcon for the 1.04 in this year’s rookie draft? I am in a 10 team non ppr league and am pretty stacked at receiver (Harvin, D. Bryant, Nicks, Cobb, A. Brown, J. Gordon) and I already own the 1.02 pick. So I am thinking I can grab an RB with one pick and get a younger wr with the other one since I can afford to let them develop while I start my other wr’s. Just curious as to thoughts on whether the 1.04 is a good value for Garcon?
Id do it, with those WR, you dont need Garcon. I dont like guys that have injuries that keep them out most of a season, then they dont have any procedures in the off season to fix it. ( good chance it flares up again in 2013) We cant tell now, but there will be good RB options for you with pick 1.02 & 1.04.
I wouldn’t do it. So what if you’re deep at WR? My guess is you could get better value trading for a known commodity. Garcon, when healthy, has top 15 potential.
Personally, I would do it unless you agree with Eric and think that Garcon will be top 15.
He does have a ton of potential, but the 1.04 would allow you to get two of Lacy, Bernard, Allen and Patterson (or Austin, if you prefer).
Ignore the 1.02, actually– since you are stacked at WR, you will grab RB at 1.02 regardless. Do you think one of the WR I mentioned will be better than Garcon 2-3 years from now? Alternatively, do you like Davis, Lattimore, Franklin or any other RB enough to want to pull the trigger at 1.04?
I might do the trade, then wait until the draft and sell it at max value. Someone will fall in love with a prospect at 1.04 and offer a first next year and then some.
What Cyrus said. Wait til’ closer to the draft. Tavon Austin will be drafted by the Steelers to replace Mike Wallace, and you’ll have guys clamoring up to trade for that 1.4.
#conjecture
Don’t play PPR, but Garcon would be devalued in that format if I’m guessing right. Never seemed like a high reception guy.
i would
Id do it, with those WR, you dont need Garcon. I dont like guys that have injuries that keep them out most of a season, then they dont have any procedures in the off season to fix it. ( good chance it flares up again in 2013) We cant tell now, but there will be good RB options for you with pick 1.02 & 1.04.
Sorry, stupid touch screen!
I completely disagree on David Wilson. It’s reasonable to expect his pass protection to be better in year 2. Spiller has similar issues early on and the Giants don’t have a Fred Jackson to lean on. I think Wilson is in for a heavy work load in 2012 and he’s an explosive playmaker. I’d definitely target him as a RB2
I don’t understand how you can evaluate Ryan Williams as a low end RB2 but say there’s no way you can trust David Wilson as an RB2. I’d take Wilson over Williams all day every day over Williams.
I completely understand Williams may be given more opportunity right out of the gate but at this point I can’t believe his talent is better than Wilson’s.
Said I wouldn’t count on him week one as my RB2. All I said is I want to see some production from him before I’d tell someone he’s a lock and load RB2. I also didn’t say Williams was that either. Said he could be.
When someone asks me if they can count on a player, I take that to mean they want to know if he’s an every week starter at that position. I wouldn’t be confident going in to 2013 with Wilson as my RB2 without any other option.
So would you never count on a player to be one of your starters without seeing some production first? I do all the time. Did so with Demaryius Thomas and RG3 in 2012. Worked out beautifully. It doesn’t always work, but I’d rather swing for the fences than mitigate my risk.
i could’nt have said it better myself, Craig. right on man. you gotta gamble a little bit and wilson is all setup for a hue season. they will work on his pass protection in camp. if they did’nt feel confident in his abilities to protect eli…they would not have let bradshaw go and that is for damn sure.
Who would you rather have long term Ryan williams or ben tate? I like williams because of the situation. I have both and was offered the 8th pick in the draft for Tate? I have foster too. Should i take it? What is tate value?