The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions.
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) Could you please discuss the future of LaMichael James, Lamar Miller, Ronnie Hillman and Ryan Williams? – Jon in San Diego
Any number of interesting and difficult to project players on your list, Jon. Let me give you my two cents on each:
LaMichael James: I wasn’t a huge fan of the selection by San Francisco because I felt they had a solid answer in Kendall Hunter. While they will be able to find roles for both, this caps the upside of either. James is a player who won’t be on any of my teams – for what you get in production, there should be better players to roster.
Lamar Miller: Arguably the player to own on your list. Reports out of Miami are all good for Miller – Reggie Bush on the way out and Daniel Thomas being Daniel Thomas. My guess is his owners are excited to see what happen early in 2013 and his price has risen beyond my willingness to pay. I’d like him as my RB4 with RB2 upside, but I doubt I get him for that. (Note: He’s currently RB32 in DLF’s composite ADP.)
Ronnie Hillman: Surpassed this season by a resurgent Knowshon Moreno. And no one saw that coming. Also Willis McGahee is under contract for two more years and looks effective when healthy. This is a crowded situation and while Hillman has skills, rising up the depth chart may take time. I anticipate a full on RBBC in Denver where none of these players contributes meaningfully for fantasy teams.
Ryan Williams: So much promise. If Williams was in this draft class he’d be the first RB taken. Solid mix of size, speed, running style and pass catching. Had (or has) what it takes to be a feature back in the NFL. That’s the gamble. He should come on the cheap and if you are willing to trade for a player who may bust completely he’s a good target.
2.) Since breaking onto the scene in 2010, we’ve seen Arian Foster’s YPC plummet from 4.9 in 2010, to 4.4 in 2011 to 4.1 in 2012. With over 1,000 carries already in his short career, is it time to start shopping Foster already before his value drops? I’m thinking about seeing what kind of young WR I could get in return for him. – Dave in Philly
This is covered in great detail by DLF’s own Eric Hardter.
I tend to be more willing than most to hold on to an aging player and wring the last drops of fantasy production out of them. But since you are considering dealing Foster for a “young WR” I sense you are on the opposite end of that spectrum.
If you are going to move Arian Foster for a WR, it better be a darn good one or a solid package. Foster is going as the sixth player overall in mock start-ups with only AJ Green and Megatron above him. Given your desire to get younger; in order to get a deal done you may have to “settle” for Julio Jones or Dez Bryant. The list probably ends there. What you will ultimately get is largely dependent on the rosters and attitudes of the owners of those four WRs.
3.) Considering trading Eli for Welker/Edelman. I think Edelman is the heir apparent to Welker. Thoughts? – John in Denver
That’s an excellent deal for you assuming you have another reasonable QB.
For me this deal comes down to Eli Manning more than the WRs. He’s simply not consistent enough to carry a fantasy team to the Promised Land. In four games last year, he killed teams by producing five points or less. Two of those games were against sub-par defenses (Atlanta and Dallas), so chances are if you were playing the match-ups in a QBBC you started Eli for sure. And you likely started him against Cincinnati as well. It didn’t end there – he had three more games under 15 fantasy points. Worse yet, thanks to the scheduling gods, two of these stinkers came in weeks 15 and 16. (Note: This was in 6 pt/TD format.)
An argument can be made that a healthy Hakeem Nicks would have gone a long way to improving the Giants passing game and that’s true. Of course an equally strong argument could be made that Nicks is banged up a lot and will probably continue to be.
I’m avoiding Eli at this point in dynasty. He’s too expensive to have as a QB2 and not good enough to count on as a QB1.
4.) What are BigBen’s fantasy prospects at this point? QB2? – Tony on Twitter
Low end QB1.
All the arguments I just made against Eli go the opposite way for Big Ben. He’s fairly consistent and he lets his fantasy teams down by getting hurt. In a six point per TD league, Ben averaged 21.1 PPG, while Eli averaged 17.5. This is attributable to fact that Ben’s “bad games” were zeros while he was hurt. And in those you obviously started someone else. Eli on the other hand gave you clunkers while you had him in your active roster. Ben’s PPG made him the number eight fantasy QB last year.
Moreover, he’s a cheap player to acquire because the perception is like yours in that he’s a QB2. His current ADP is as QB#14 – behind Eli and Tony Romo. I’d rather have an elite QB than be messing around in this tier, but if I happened to find myself waiting on QB in a start-up Big Ben would be a target.
5.) Michael Floyd for Hilton/S.Hill. Which side and why? – mzkp54 in the DLF Forums
I’ll take TY Hilton and Stephen Hill.
Purely on value, I think Hilton carries at least as much if not more than Michael Floyd. Thus Hill becomes pure gravy in the deal. Not bad at all.
The only argument I can see against Hilton is that the Colts depth chart is crowed with talented WRs and his targets might decline. That argument would be somewhat hard to support given that Hilton wasn’t even in the top-30 in the league in terms of targets. I get the sense when I read posts and comments on Twitter about Hilton that there is just some unexplained anxiety that he was a fluke. Remember Hilton didn’t come out of nowhere. The Colts drafted him in the third round – way ahead of fantasy sleeper darling LaVon Brazill.
Hill is obviously capped by the terrible QB situation in New York. But he’s coming to you at nearly zero cost. So what the heck? You’re getting a player that was drafted in the first round of most rookie drafts as an add-in. Plus it’s awfully early to be giving up on any 2012 rookies.
Speaking of players capped by awful QB situations, Michael Floyd might be the poster child. I love Floyd’s talent and ranked him as my WR1 of the 2012 class. I also don’t mind the situation as much as others because things change quickly in the NFL. Floyd is still a player I’m targeting in start-ups. All that said Hilton has demonstrated that he can deliver fantasy value something Floyd has yet to do. I would only trade Floyd for a player I could envision starting for my team in 2013 and Hilton fits the bill.
Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.
