Don’t Draft Rookies
Editor’s Note:Â This article was the winning submission of one of our Writing Contest winners –Â Jaron Foster. It was chosen for its creativity, statistical analysis and concept. Team DLF is excited to welcome Jaron to the writing group and we know you’ll enjoy much more of his work in the coming months and years.
Here’s introducing a radical concept: don’t draft rookies.
How much are dynasty owners planning to invest in rookies, either in terms of auction dollars or the opportunity cost of passing on more established veterans? In re-draft leagues, your answer may be simple as only a small group of players merit consideration anyway. Not so in dynasty leagues, where you currently find yourself because of your thirst for a more realistic (and complex) experience. To this point, developing and acting upon a strategy during your draft is even more critical than in more casual leagues.
Owners in dynasty leagues naturally think long-term when drafting, meaning young players with immense upside are the most prized commodities. After all, 2011 startup dynasty league owners with Cam Newton and AJ Green acquired (relatively) cheap players who are already borderline elite. Everyone will be looking to find these gems in the 2012 rookie class.
Unfortunately for these drafters, this mindset is counter-productive to a basic recipe for success (or at least remaining competitive) in fantasy football: minimizing risk. This concept takes shape in many ways, including analyzing player consistency ratings or reviewing which players will have games in domes or warmer climates at the end of the season.
Newton and Green, while putting up great numbers some weeks, gave owners their shares of inconsistency. Newton tallied just 158 passing yards and 27 rushing yards in week three after a couple of monster games and ended the season with three straight sub-175 yard passing games (including the championship weeks for most fantasy leagues). Green had a phenomenal season for a rookie receiver, but that still included eight weeks (HALF his games) with 63 or fewer receiving yards. Neither of these players offered the consistency needed throughout the regular and postseasons for fantasy league owners to heavily rely on them in their rookie seasons.
Despite their inconsistency, other highly-touted rookies in recent years paled in comparison to make a significant fantasy impact. Last year has been widely considered to be the most productive ever from the rookie class, yet no quarterback outside of Newton and Andy Dalton warranted consideration, nor did any receiver other than Green or Julio Jones.
The running back position was even less fruitful, with top players Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, and Mikel Leshoure all missing extensive time (in the case of the latter two, the entire season) due to injuries. Shane Vereen (15 rushes for 57 yards) and Daniel Thomas (only 3.5 YPC as a backup) were the other running backs commonly selected in the top two rounds. The best production at the position came from third rounder DeMarco Murray, and after an opportunity emerged in week seven, had only two 100+ yard games in the next seven before suffering a season-ending injury. There was a great deal of promise shown, but not much in terms of production realized by fantasy owners.
Fantasy owners who acquired rookies in 2010 (Sam Bradford, CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Dez Bryant, Jahvid Best, Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty, and Golden Tate) and 2009 (Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin and Donald Brown) were also largely disappointed. Only owners in dynasty leagues reaped benefits from any of these players as production did not appear until year two at earliest. Knowshon Moreno and Hakeem Nicks had respectable years in 2009, but were by no means consistent options on playoff teams.
The point, as I’m sure you’re arriving at as well, is that most (and perhaps all) rookies are poor options for fantasy owners. The high price likely required to acquire these players only stacks the odds against drafting rookies. Depending on the nature of a keeper league, particularly how many players can be kept and for how many years, rookies may really only be draftable in dynasty leagues (if at all!).
Clearly, if you choose not to draft any rookies in your dynasty draft, you will miss out on the players whose talent will emerge early in their careers. However, a better strategy than drafting a rookie will be to target them in mid-season trades. This brings two clear advantages:
1) you will not have spent valuable auction dollars on such high-risk players, and
2) you will have time to evaluate their role in the offense based on preseason and regular season snaps (or for those of you into this level of research, first-team practice snaps).
The former allowed you to draft less flashy but likely more reliable veteran talent, while the latter may allow you to buy low from a frustrated owner.
With this strategy in mind, let’s take a look at recent rookie season examples at each skill position (QB, RB, WR, TE) to help identify trends that led to breakout seasons the following year:
Josh Freeman, QB TB
2009 rookie season: started first game week eight, then broke out in week nine with three touchdowns. Increased number of completions each of the next five weeks
Analysis: While he had his growing pains, Freeman had a key advantage over many other rookie quarterbacks: opportunity. Rookie coach Raheem Morris drafted Freeman in the first round and stuck by his player throughout the remainder of the season.
Next year results: 3600+ passing yards, 25:6 TD-to-interception ratio
Ray Rice, RB BAL
2008 rookie season: through team’s first eight games, 49 rushing attempts/15 receptions, 354 all-purpose yards
Analysis: Rice broke out in week nine against Cleveland, but otherwise had a relatively unspectacular rookie season. However, rookie coach John Harbaugh played his rookie running back in passing game early in the season, using Rice in third-down situations even with relatively productive Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain on the roster. There was little fanfare over Rice, so dynasty owners could have possibly acquired him cheap via trade.
Next year results: 2000+ all-purpose yards, eight touchdowns, 78 receptions
Antonio Brown, WR PIT
2010 rookie season: 16 receptions/167 yards in seven regular season games and 5/90 in three postseason games
Analysis: While the popular pick to emerge was Emmanuel Sanders, digging into the numbers may have led you to Brown in 2010 instead. With Hines Ward on the decline and an opening opposite Mike Wallace, Sanders played 13 games with only 28/376 to show for it while constantly battling injuries. Despite less-than-impressive statistics most weeks he played, Brown never completely disappeared as Sanders did and showed a rapport with Ben Roethlisberger with a key long reception in the playoffs against Baltimore
Next year results: 69 receptions, 1,108 yards
Jimmy Graham, TE NO
2010 rookie season: Five receptions/49 yards in Saints’ first nine regular season games, 26/307 in final seven games
Analysis: While Graham never followed a gradual increase in targets and receptions fantasy owners generally look for, that is all the more reason owners may not have recognized a breakout season. Four straight mid-late season games with 3+ receptions and four touchdowns in the final three games reflected Drew Brees’ increased trust in his big new tight end. The inevitable departure of Jeremy Shockey also supported the potential for recognizing a breakout season
Next year results: 99 receptions, 1310 yards, 11 touchdowns
The dynasty strategy here is to avoid drafting rookies, but know where to look for mid-season trade targets. Use your draft resources on less risky picks and find the diamonds in the rough a few weeks later.
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