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This off-season has been full of speculation as to just how big a factor Ryan Mathews could be in dynasty leagues this year. After all, he really broke out last year and recorded his first 1,000 yard season (1,091 in total) to go along with 50 catches for 455 yards and six total touchdowns in 14 games. That was good enough to place him in the top ten in most leagues and his 4.9 yards per carry was good for third in the league amongst players with at least 200 carries.
The only trouble with Mathews has been the ongoing concern with minor injuries. He’s had his share of nicks in his career, but nothing was too significant or troublesome to raise too much of a red flag. The Chargers coaching staff has been talking up Mathews all off-season, stating he was in line for a huge workload, especially with the loss of backfield mate Mike Tolbert to Carolina. The only question was his ability to hold up over an entire season.
It lasted one carry.
Mathews broke his clavicle on his lone touch pictured above in the Chargers preseason opener against the Green Bay Packers last night and will reportedly be sidelined for 4-6 weeks. He’ll undergo surgery today and San Diego hopes to have him back in time for the season opener against the Raiders on on September 10th’s edition of Monday Night Football, but that seems to be a best case scenario.
So, now what?
The Chargers were fortunate enough to get Ronnie Brown in the off-season and it’s very possible he plays a significant role early in the season. Even if Mathews makes it back in time for the opener, he wouldn’t have seen the field for a month and likely wouldn’t be ready for true workhorse duties. If Brown is available in your league, he’s worth an immediate pickup as he’s obviously the favorite for early season carries competing with Jackie Battle, Curtis Brinkley, Edwin Baker and Michael Hayes. It’s doubtful the Chargers look outside for help since it’s so early in the preseason, but you never know. One thing is certain, though – the preseason games for the Chargers backfield just got a whole lot more interesting.
Meanwhile, the real concern here is Mathews long-term outlook. While this injury could have been much, much worse, it’s still a problem. At this point, you have to raise a red flag and be concerned that Mathews is looking a lot like Darren McFadden as an ultra-talented running back who may not be able to shake the injury bug. Mathews is currently the #4 running back in our rankings and he’ll likely move down a couple of spots behind the likes of Trent Richardson (a bit of an injury concern himself) and possibly even players like Matt Forte or Chris Johnson until he can prove he can handle a bigger workload.
However, this is no time to panic. You shouldn’t be looking to unload him in your league. If anything, you buy low from an owner who overreacts to the injury. This is not a torn ACL or torn patella tendon – it’s a simple shoulder injury. While it’s obviously more than just a contusion or sprain, this is far from a career threatening injury.
It’s a frustrating day for Mathews owners and a sobering reminder of the what can happen in a split second. Dynasty owners will all be very happy when the preseason is over and we can breathe a sigh of relief when our collective players are healthy and out of danger.
At least we hope they’re healthy.
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Brown is rostered in my league. As a Mathews owner, should I look to trade for Brown for insurance? I’m sure the Brown owner will try to get me to over pay. What would be a reasonable price? I’m thinking of offering a future 4th round pick and see how he responds. Thoughts?
I wouldn’t bother right now. Brown’s price will be inflated and it’s quite possible you’re sending a 4th rounder for a one week player. The only way you trade for him is if you’re seriously concerned that Mathews won’t make it through the year and that the Chargers would use Brown exclusively. That’s a tough combination to think is very realistic right now.
The other two caveats I’d add right now would be that making that move would require your team to be 1.) a serious contender this season and 2) a team with a difficult early season schedule. Otherwise, there’s no need to panic.
Thanks for the input. I’ll hold on to my draft picks.
A 4th round rookie pick is not that much. But I’d be inclined to do it, if you have large rosters. Also, what are your other RB’s? Do you absolutely have to have a Charger in the game? I’d want to wait a little bit to see if Brown actually makes it through the preseason too though. Also, wait to see what Mathews return date is as the season nears. Brown looked out of gas last year, but piece of mind is piece mind. Try Brinkley, McClain or others on waivers first. Also, Norv will spill the beans on the real plan (RBBC?) before the season. Wait it out for now.
I picked up someone else’s dynasty team in a deep league and the team was in shambles. I’ve made about a dozen trades in the last 2 weeks and now…
I just made a trade 3 days ago: sent Adrian Peterson and next year’s 2nd round rookie pick in exchange for Ryan Mathews and a 3.11 and 3.16 this year.
Today, I’m in panic mode. Now I’m left with the law firm, ronnie brown, brandon jacobs, and robert turbin (glad I took him in 2nd round now) at running back. Should I look to move Mathews for a lesser back (Lynch or Jackson maybe) or do you think I should sit with Mathews and ride out a bumpy first couple weeks?
Don’t make a bad move in panic. I don’t know what the rest of your roster is but you probably are going to struggle anyway based on not having a decent second back. Just ride this out and don’t take a lesser back in a deal.
I still think that is a good move for you– trading an injured Peterson (ACL injury is a bigger deal) for a now-injured Mathews (younger too), giving up a 2nd next year for the 3.11 and 3.16 this year.
I would still make that trade, to be honest.
Don’t worry about Mathews, you are building for the future and the first 6 weeks of the season don’t affect you. Even if you think he isn’t durable, wait until he is healthy to trade him, you are selling him low if you sell now.
He’s only going to miss one or two weeks of the season (at least until his next injury) so don’t sell him low right now.
Wow! I tried make that same move earlier this year (trade AP and get Mathews) and got shot down right away. I’m surprised you were able to get that good of a deal to go thru.
I’d keep Mathews. Hes going to be out till WEEK 1, maybe more, but hes still worth it in my book. In a draft today, if he “fell” to me in the second round, Id still jump at taking him. Hes still a 1st round talent in my mind. this injury doenst bother me too much. Thats why you have backups for you bye weeks. Now youd just have to use your RB3 earlier.
I do not have Matthews rostered anywhere thank goodness. I think Brown can shoulder SOME of the load. I have Edwin Baker as a deep deep stash and would not mind adding him in another league, but have heard nothing about him during camp so far. Any thoughts on him?
The only thing I have heard is that Michael Hayes has outplayed him in camp so far.
“I think Brown can shoulder SOME of the load.”
- haha SHOULDER some of the load..
As a R.Brown owner I can’t move him to the Mathews owner for a 5th round rookie pick. (We haven’t had our rookie draft yet (Aug 26) so I’m guessing he’s chancing it to see if I would cut him or Mathews comes back)
Nicely put Ken. I agree completely. I’m a huge Mathews believer and I’m not happy about this situation but I’m not over reacting either. I still love the potential here and I will be looking to take advantage of owner’s knee jerk reactions!
I’m just glad it happened now and not the opening game. If it had to happen at all…best case and not a knee injury.
Would you trade an aging MJD for Mathews?
I definitely would but the contract situation with MJD will undoubtedly diminish his trade value just as much as Mathews’ injury. It could be a tricky trade right now.
Not me, and I’m a Chargers fan. I’m concerned about risk of re-injury, although having a plate/surgery might reduce this risk. Still, Charles Rogers had a broken clavicle, then broke it again the following year. Keep in mind, Mathews is a running back, and takes a lot of abuse to the chest area. Plus, Mathews has an upright running style, similar to Adrian Peterson, who also broke a clavicle. Interestingly, AP was also told the broken clavicle was a ’4 to 6 week’ injury, but he ended up missing the rest of the year at Oklahoma. See link below. I’m not a big MJD fan, though. I would consider trading Mathews, but more for a Jonathan Stewart or something similar. I also would not deal Mathews unless you could get something close to value in return. If you can’t, keep Mathews and wait for him to come back healthy. At that point, I would definitely trade him, just to get back comparable value and yet avoid his inevitable next set of injuries.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrian_Peterson
Excellent comment.
Ray Lewis broke Rashard Mendenhall’s collarbone his rookie season, but it doesn’t seem to have been as issue since.
I would definately trade MJD for Mathews. The recent bad news about the clavicle is upsetting but it is much better than a lengthy holdout. Who knows what type of reprocussions this hold out will have on MJD’s season. Besides… He (MJD) has shouldered the load their for a while now and all those carries take their toll. MJD is 100% NOT in the Jags future plans. If he were, this hold out would have been resolved long ago. Risky to trade FOR a player that just broke a bone but…. I’d still do it in this case.
“there” not their…. oops.
I think the most damaging part of the injury is the fact that Mathews probably just lost the faith of the coaching staff. They thought that he could be a workhorse back. That just isn’t the case. I think more than anything this injury cemented him as a 200-250 touch per season guy instead of a 300-350 touch per season guy. It might be for the best, but I think it will forever prevent him from becoming an elite RB in fantasy, but he’ll still be a solid RB1 whenever he is healthy enough to see the field.
After reading comments today from the coaching staff, Turner specifically, I think he still has full confidence of his coaching staff. Truthfully, this doesn’t change my outlook of Mathews at all.
I was thinking of taking Matthews with my first pick in my dynasty start up. Would you lean towards taking someone else, such as Chris Johnson or Trent Richardson, or do you think Matthews can still be that top 10 guy for dynasty drafts?
What pick do you have? Who do you expect to be available when you’re on the clock?
Nice article, Ken.
I would not call it a ‘simple shoulder injury’. I do think it could be an issue for Mathews in the future. As a running back, he will take shots to the chest area, and that could, at least theoretically, re-injure the clavicle. I also think the initial estimate of 4-6 weeks is too optimistic. If Mathews has surgery, I would assume it will be an ORIF (Open Reduction Internal Fixation), and studies show NFL athletes take 8-9 weeks to recover from that kind of surgery. Other studies, in non=athletes, show time to recovery from 16 to 28 weeks. Adrian Peterson took 11 weeks to recover from his fracture clavicle at Oklahoma. I think a return in 4 weeks isn’t gonna happen. Maybe week 4 is the best estimate. However, you also have to consider that the Chargers have a bye week 7. It is possible that, even though Mathews is recovered by week 4, the Chargers could theoretically hold him out through the bye to ensure complete recovery. If Mathews comes back too soon and breaks it again, he will likely be out for the year.
Here is an Italian study on recovery from fractured clavicles. Athletes were able to return to sports activities in 3.2 months, for those who received surgery.
http://dv9bs6zb6v.search.serialssolutions.com/?V=1.0&pmid=21214359
Here is the Italian Study that I referenced above:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=Management%20of%20midclavicular%20fractures%3A%20comparison%20between%20nonoperative%20treatment%20and%20open%20intramedullary%20fixation%20in%2080%20patients.
I am in a keeper league where I am allowed to keep one player in the top 30, one player out of the top 30 and a rookie. My rookie is Julio Jones. The player that I had last year that I am keeping out of the top 30 is my man Victor Cruz. Now the question is, who do I keep from the top 30. Initially I was hands down, not even considering anybody else no if ands or buts about it Ryan Matthews. Yesterday he got injured again. The players I have to chose from to keep are Ryan Matthews, Roddy White or Jimmy Graham. I feel like the breed of tight ends are very strong and I can get a pretty good one mid draft. I’m not a big fan of Roddy White, he was the team’s leading target, however dropped so many balls last year. I don’t know what to do I’m stuck in a pickle. I thought about keeping Roddy White and then trying to trade up for a possible first or second rounder. I’m open to suggestions. Thank you much!
Jimmy Graham, no doubt in my mind about it.
Based on available information, in a vacuum, should I keep Mathews or Julio?
I would keep Julio Jones even before the Mathews injury. Now, it’s an even easier decision. Don Julio without any doubt at all in my mind.
As a dynasty owner I am happier with this news in comparison to Trent Richardson. But as a redraft owner I would prefer what Richardson had done. I too have often thought about how easy it is to re-injure yourself from this injury, let alone a RB, and one who runs upright. This just doesn’t seem like it’ll end well.
So I am thinking I may have screwed myself in my redraft league, but even if I had to take a mulligan 2012 season I’d buy on Mathews. He can still be a top 10 back even if they just keep him in a committee going forward.
In the 2 dynasty leagues I’m in involved with him, in 1 I traded for him by trading MJD + a 2013 1st, and another I traded him away and got back Demarco Murray + Justin Blackmon and a future 2013 1st. I have no idea how either of these will play out or which ones I’ll hate myself for but I really hate that I may not get to see him this season at 100%.
I’m in a 0.5 PPR 10 team keeper league (3 keepers per team). With Mathews injury, which 3 would you keep?
Mathews
Forte
Roddy White
Larry Fitzgerald
Gronkowski
M colston
M Wallace
We start 1 qb/2rb/3wr/1te/1flex(rb or wr)
6 bench.
I am in a PPR keeper league with 1 keeper. 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/DST/K Who should I keep? I don’t pick until 9.
Ryan Mathews
Andre Johnson
AJ Green