46 Responses to “2012 Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Consensus Top 20”

  1. Boomer says:

    GREAT article. Would move Pead up to even 8 for a RB needy team. The sitting for a year and then playing concept tends to work out great for RB’s(Shady McCoy, Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, MJD, Charles).

  2. Very well put Ghost. Very nice innaugural article on DLF.

  3. Joe says:

    Fantastic article. I have 1.01 in my 32 team dynasty league. I am taking luck. Just traded for 1.5 to grab Blackmon or Floyd since I have Beanie Wells on my team I dont need a RB. But, rumor has it Trent Richardson will slide to me. Im not complaining.

  4. joeday says:

    “Now can he stay healthy?”…does TR have an injury history?

    • No … he’s been very solid. But as a three down back in the NFL, it’s a question that we ask of every workload player.

      • joeday says:

        oh ok, I thought there was something I missed. I mean you could pretty much say that about any RB in the NFL (as we saw last year). The most wild thing about the RBs in the top 10 in scoring last year, only 3 of the 10 did not miss a single game…Ray Rice (which isnt too surprising), but MJD (who has a pereceived injury history) and Turner (who is always nicked up) surprised me.

  5. tebow says:

    well it looks thin on the rb market for playing time. with so many wrs to choose from its more of a crap shoot than ever. i will be taking wilson w pick 1.3 as martin and rich will be off the board.my real question is should i trade pick 1.6 for bradshaw since im getting wilson? its either that or pick james/hillman. pead is going pick 1.5. wrs,tes and qbs go later in the first round in my league

    • Yes … I’d do that in a heartbeat personally. But I also wouldn’t be taking Wilson at 1.03. I’d be taking one of the QBs and looking to grow with them or trade them for greater value.

      • tebow says:

        hey thanks jeff for your input,i have to take wilson as i already have brady and will ride him for a few more.qbs aare easy to get in my league or i can just not get bradshaw and pick wilson and luck at pick 6

  6. tebow says:

    and one more sorry guys i have donald brown,ridley and laShoure as my roster bubble guys. i need to keep 2 outta these 3 young backs. i was waiting till after the draft but seems like all three will be the primary/goal like backs for their teams. who should i drop?

    • Leshoure for me. It’s obvious that the Colts are hoping Brown can stay healthy as he showed promise last year. Big IF. Ridley is going ot have a chance for sure and without BJGE in town, his role could increase significantly. Leshoure is in DET where all RBs go to die. I’d like ot hope that he could someday produce but it’s been a dubious start for him.

      • tebow says:

        i hear what ur saying i was so tempted with lashoure because we saw what smith did last year and that could be lashoure with all the space and goal line shots he will get. i think brown is going to be a lot better with luck,he stayed healthy and gained some muscle,they will run the ball more with luck and those tight ends giving some lanes. i like ridley’s talent the best but they have that other guy they drafted in the 2nd round last year so he me makes me nervous about keeping ridley cuz belly-check likes to run the ball with 5 different guys during the game

      • Coach says:

        speaking on the NE situation… any chance Shane Vereen does more than hand out towels this year? I have Foster, MJD and BJGE but am really hoping i can get something out of Vereen or Ryan Williams this year.

        • tebow says:

          vereen is going to be tough but u should for sure to be able to get some picks to the wells owner for williams.if i had wells i would give a 2nd this year and a 2013 3rd round to sure up my zona rbs stable to obtain williams

          • Meens says:

            just put it out on the message board that you would be willing to take any 1st for Ryan Williams. I got a 1st. Alot of people think Beanie stinks and its a matter of “when” not “if” williams takes the job. It only takes one owner.

        • Cyrus Miller says:

          I have Vereen and Ryan Williams as well and am really hoping that one of them becomes a startable RB.

          Honestly, I wouldn’t settle for a 2nd for either one, as their upside if they become the guy is worth a lot more. Maybe an early 2nd this year, so I could take Pead or Miller if they fell.

          Otherwise I view it as a sunk cost and now I just need patience.

  7. J Fizzle says:

    You quoted about Luck “skill set is too great to pass on at 1.01 unless you have a top young quarterback on your roster already”

    Would you consider Philip Rivers worthy enough to bypass Luck?

    • Oops … accidentally hit the thumbs down vote. :)

      Funny you mention that because Rivers is the QB at which point it becomes questionable. I understand the difficulty with taking a QB over Richardson and if I have Rivers it would be really tough and dependent largely on who I have in my stable of RBs.

      If you aren’t rebuilding and have a shot to win it now, I’d lean toward Richardson. If you don’t think you are going to be competitive soon, I’d lean toward one of the QBs

  8. iron Fist says:

    You quoted the above about Luck ” skill set is too great to pass on at 1.01 unless you have a top young quarterback on your roster already”

    Would you consider Philipp Rivers worthy enough to bypass Luck?

  9. Jersey Rob says:

    “Funny you mention that because Rivers is the QB at which point it becomes questionable. I understand the difficulty with taking a QB over Richardson and if I have Rivers it would be really tough and dependent largely on who I have in my stable of RBs.

    If you aren’t rebuilding and have a shot to win it now, I’d lean toward Richardson. If you don’t think you are going to be competitive soon, I’d lean toward one of the QBs”

    In the exact same boat with Rivers. My team is competing, so for me, I went Richardson, and I’m not looking back!

  10. Misfit74 says:

    I think you did a good job in this article of illustrating talent over situation. It will be tempting for less-experienced owner to get impatient and reach for players in better situations than their talent level indicates.

    That said Weeden is about too high on the list. ;)

    • Well … personal pre-draft opinion of Weeden was in the 3rd round of a rookie draft but this draft went from bad to worse very quickly and even our RB4 now is Pead. That’s amazing!!

      And any way you slice it, it looks like Weeden is now the starter for the Browns and a first round starting rookie QB has some value that should be above many of the other players that are far more risky.

      That all said, I’m not going berate anyone that simply crosses Weeden off their board altogether. :)

    • Jesse says:

      It will be in the VAST minority of leagues that Weeden goes in the top 25, much less #13. MAYBE 14+ team leagues, and start 2 QB leagues. Lamar Miller isn’t likely to fall to #20 in many either, nor Pead to #15. RB positional scarcity is a reality, excepting leagues that start less than 2 RBs.

  11. KC Guzz says:

    Funny what the lack of “workhorse” backs is doing to fantasy value of the RB’s. You would think the overall value of the RB would take a similar drop, just as they have for NFL teams. What I am actually seeing happen is that values are getting pushed up for RB rookies, and also for any 2nd-3rd year guys that have been on the fringe who might get more touches going forward or who ended the year strong (Ridley, Spiller, D. Brown). TRich will go #1 every league I’m in regardless of format. In some, Martin and Wilson will go before RG3, maybe even before Luck.

    I’m going to buck the trend and go with Luck 1.02 in a league I’m defending the title, even with Schaub one more year (12 multi-year contracts 4 each of 2,3,4 yrs and cap/RFA/UFA league), Kolb, and Freeman coming off my developmental team (3 years max once drafted). Luck will be playing and throwing 30-32 TD’s 6 years after TRich and the rest are all done.

    In another league, I need more starters on an 8-keeper league- started with all junk last year; mortgaged a lot for Stafford before the deadline. I traded out of 1.02 to get 1.06 and 1.12. i might still get luck or RG3, and then I can go get an extra “keeper” at 1.12. Rebuild done.

  12. bigD says:

    one guy i’ve got my eye on is rb…gannaway from baylor drafted by the jets in the 6th round. say what you want about a 6th rounder, but he has the size and durability that shonn greene does’nt display on a regular basis for rex ryans liking? if greene goes down, or just gets winded, don’t be surprised to see gannaway come up big.

  13. Greg G. says:

    I hear that Pead is INDEED the heir apparent in St. Louis. How does that impact his value? I stashed him away like a tulip seed waiting for the day he blossoms into a starter.

    • Depends on what you read. Most recently the word is that they do view him as the heir apparent, but I also read that he should not be viewed that way. Personally, I don’t view him that way. I don’t think he has the size or every-down ability at this point. We’ll see how he develops through 2012

  14. Joe says:

    This is a great early perspective on these rookies, great article.

    Couple of questions for you, with the fall of Chris Polk in the draft and his injury concerns where does he deserve to be valued. Before the draft he was a late first/early second in rookie only drafts, but no it’s like a shot in the dark. Where does the potential return outweigh the risk?

    Also, it would be great to have a similar article including defensive players since so many dynasty leagues are also IDP.

    • I just took him in a draft at #29 if that helps. Figured he’s worth the risk at that point. He’s still young and I think he has elite vision as well as being a great receiver. He’s a better prospect coming out than Jonathan Dwyer I believe

  15. Brady says:

    I’ve got picks 1.04 and 1.07 in my upcoming rookie draft. I’m well off at WR and have Philip Rivers at QB but I need a RB (James Starks is a projected starter for me at this point).

    Would you suggest that I trade these two picks for 1.01 and get Richardson? Or should I sit tight where I am and be guaranteed either Luck, RG3, or Martin as well as someone else a few picks later?

    I think my team has the potential to win it all this year if i can grab an upgrade at RB.

    Any insight would be much appreciated!

    • If you can … yes. Or target other backs and see if you can land two with those two picks. I wouldn’t reach for David Wilson though personally. Take RGIII or Luck if he’s still there at #4 and BPA at 1.07.

      But your best shot is to package for a great RB or get two lesser tiered RBs for the the two picks.

      • Alan Bauerle says:

        Ok I traded the 1.3, 2.3,n 3.3 plus 2 throw ins-nobody special for Ahmad Bradshaw, Antonio brown, and the 1.5. This is my roster 1ppr 6td for everyone.

        Shaub,hasslebeck,tebow,kaepernik
        J Stewart, Bradshaw,Ridley,Blount,BScott
        M Wallace, Antonio Brown, DHB, Deon Branch, Ramses Barden
        B Pettigrew, J Cook
        M Nugent
        Jets D

        At 1.5 Wilson will be there. The big 4 rookies will be gone. Should I go wr n get blackmon or Floyd, or get bradshaws shiney new handcuff..thanks any help much appreciated

  16. james r stewart says:

    ppr dynasty league, traded Fitzy last season for 1.03 and 3.03. franchise tagged cj2k and have helu, I have 1 year left on brady also have newton cheap and for 4 years. richardson will go 1st, martin 2nd, do i take rgiii ?

    • Eric Dickens says:

      I think you have a lot of options sitting where you’re at w/ your QB situation. I’d entertain offers to move down & pick up value. If I stayed put, I’d take Luck over RGIII, but that’s more of a preference thing.

  17. ozzie mesa says:

    Great article, well I have huge decisions coming up I am rebuilding I have 1,2 , 1.5 and the 1.6 picks per trades. What do you think about if I can get Luck at 1.2 and pick both floyd and blackman with my 1.5 and 1.6? or should I go wilson and floyd need some opinions

  18. PatrickC says:

    First off I’d like to say great article I really enjoyed it. Now, I have the 1.04 and 1.07 and not sure who I should take. My mind is all over the place at this point. Qb’s are Cutler,Schaub,andPalmer rb’s are forte, r.rice, m.lynch, t.hightower,, wr’s are b.marshall, m.austiinte is v.davis have more but these are the mai.n guys. What do i do??????

    • Eric Dickens says:

      The first thing I’d do is decide who I liked better between Luck/RGIII, as at least one of those will likely fally to you and would be a good pick for you.

      I’d probably start shopping either Palmer or Schaub packaged w/ another player to upgrade at WR & make space for Luck/RGIII.

      At 1.07, you have several options: Sit tight and take the best player available that falls to you or shop the pick for someone producing right now. Many owners will overpay for a rookie pick right before the draft, especially if they don’t have a 1st round pick or have a guy they are eyeing.

  19. Andrew says:

    16 team dynasty league:

    I have the following first round picks:

    1
    3
    6
    7
    10

    Current team:
    Qb- Vick
    RB- Mathews
    RB- Daniel Thomas
    WR- Harvin
    WR- Desean Jackson
    TE- Witten

    Debating on my first two picks. I will have two of the big three. Just can’t decide if I go luck and then take rg3 or Richardson at 3.

    The 2 pick team desperately needs a qb so I could land luck and t rich.

    Thoughts?

    • Eric Dickens says:

      Wow, nice work on accumulating all those high picks…

      I personally wouldn’t risk the owner at 1.02 taking Richardson or trading the pick to someone who would. Having the 1.03 gives you the luxury of knowing you’ll get at least one of Luck/RGIII, so I’d take TR at 1.01.

      If you don’t, you run the risk of an owner (like myself) trading a QB to the guy at 1.02 in order to snag Richardson if you pass him over. With the rest of your 1st round picks, you can either take the BPA or use them as trade bait for current players.

      • Peter says:

        I absolutely concur with Eric’s advise. I remember a similar scenario when I had two early first round picks with one in between and I wanted to draft Percy Harvin (I needed a WR) and either Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy (which at the time I was fine with either). I picked Donald Brown (wrong choice there) and the next pick took Harvin so I “ended up with” LeSean McCoy too. Even though Harvin has been up and down I wish I had taken him and let one of those two RBs “fall” to me later.

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