49 Responses to “Updated 2011 Dynasty Mock Draft”

  1. terry says:

    what do you think will be thomas jones’ value for 2011?

    • Ross says:

      I have had him in my dynasty league for 3 years now, and even though he’s still valuable, I saw him slow down a lot at the end of 2009 and he seems to be slowing lately in 2010. He’ll probably have close to the same value in 2011 — 800 yards and 6TDs or so — making him an adequate RB2. I’d like to trade him for a young WR or a draft pick, but nobody’s taking him in my league.

  2. DWonderland says:

    I’m a Giants fan/Cowboy Hater but I’d have to move Dez Bryant up near Hakeem Nicks. He is scary.

    • jwelite says:

      dez bryant was scary when kitna was at qb but did nothing while romo was there. it also doesnt help that he broke his leg at the end of the season

  3. ScottD says:

    I wouldn’t touch Turner in these early rounds. He’s getting old and doesn’t catch passes. He’s getting awfully close to the cliff. I’d rather have Felix Jones to name another RB.

  4. Denise says:

    About A. Foster, are you worried about B. Tate? They really liked him and if he hadn’t gotten hurt, he would have been the starter. Is it going to end up being a RBBC?

    • DLFKenK says:

      I’m not that concerned about Tate at this point. There’s really just not going to be any way to take Foster out if he keeps producing this way.

      I mean, really, could you expect BETTER numbers from Tate or anyone else?

      I also don’t think Tate was ever going to be handed the job. After the draft in April, Foster did nothing but impress the coaching staff. He gave them every reason to believe in him and is continuing to do so.

    • Paradis says:

      “he would have been the starter” … That myth produced by fantasy owners is the reason i was able to land Foster is so many leagues with a smile. At no point did HOU ever say that was going to happen.

      • Steve says:

        Not to mention that at no point in the preseason was Foster not the #1 RB on Houston’s Depth Chart…

        The only knock on Foster coming into this season was his ability to pick up the blitz… the last few games he looks considerably improved in that department.. if he keeps picking up that blitz and running the way he runs, then Tate will just fill the same role that Ward is currently holding here in Houston.

    • Ross says:

      Tate has some talent, though. If Foster gets lazy, Tate may catch up to him in 2011. He may even cut into Foster’s snaps, but that’ll hopefully just keep Foster fresh for the playoffs.

  5. Drew says:

    No love for AJ Green?

  6. Dave says:

    You don’t think Brandon Lloyd deserves to be picked in the top 4 rounds?

    • DLFKenK says:

      No, I don’t believe he merits consideration in the first four rounds of a dynasty draft next season. He’ll be 30 years old and has never shown any element of consistency throughout his career.

  7. DLF Ken K says:

    Maybe I should have put Michael Vick first…

  8. Palmer says:

    This may sound crazy, but what do you think about LeGarrette Blount? He looks like a strong running back and Tampa Bay has an improving offense. I currently own Foster in a dynasty league and am seriously considering trading him to get Blount, Greg Jennings and a first round rookie selection.

    I am currently in first place and worried about the tough schedule for Houston. Am I completely crazy here?

    • Chad says:

      Yes…Foster ADP will be top 10 next year….

    • Brian says:

      Someone offered you Greg Jennings, Blount and a first round rookie and you are THINKING about it? I’d jump all over it.

      Who cares what foster’s adp will be, it’s a dynasty league. He won’t be available in the draft. Neither will Blount or Jennings. You take a small hit at RB swapping Blount with Foster. Foster is somewhat of a question mark going into next season. They do still have Tate and there are no guarantees he stays in the upper RB tiers. Blount is a ? as well, but he looks good and caddy isn’t gonna take the job away.

      Greg Jennings on the other hand, is not a question mark. You get a small hit at RB, but you are compensated with the rookie pick. Rookie + Blount = Foster. But you also throw a top 10 WR into the deal? I couldn’t accept it fast enough. Especially in a dynasty league.

      • Paradis says:

        I’m gonna play Devil’s advocate here and say NO, don’t trade him.

        Considering the following…

        1- Foster is pretty much the top of the fantasy foodchain. How is anyone you get going to best that? He’s the kind of fantasy producer we’re all chasing every season. You can only start so many players.

        2- Jennings isn’t a Top 10 WR. He just isn’t. Contrary to what the above poster says, he’s roughly around #20 right now, and thats aproximately where he finished last season. He’ll never be a Megatron or an Andre Johnson… which is comparatively speaking what you have in Foster. He’s had great weeks and good years, but Finley’s presence impacted his value bigtime.

        3- I like Blount, but the man’s got baggage and he doesn’t project to be a all-world back (IMO). the BEST case scenario is a michael turner type. Thats BEST case scenario if he stays healthy, doesn’t make any bonehead mistakes off the field, and plays as good or better than he has on in certain games this year…. and the wheels tend to fall of those backs quickly.

        4- 1st round pick… so what? is it the first pick overall? Lots of them were used on Ryan Matthews this past year, and look how that turned out. Infact, Look alot of the guys who get drafted year in and year out in the 1st rnd. 50-60% success rate i imagine at best? Ben Tate, James Hardy, DHB, Donald Brown, Macolm Kelly, Limas Sweed, Devin Thomas, Hardesty, A. Benn, say “hi”. Even Spiller’s done jack so far.
        Ya, it’s a little early to make those calls on some players… but. You know. best case scenario is… you get a Foster, who you have.

        I guess if you’re team sucks, and sucks bad, maybe this trade is a leap of faith towards rebuilding. But if you’re hunting for a championship and a ring (in my league anyways), Foster’s yo boy.

        • Steve says:

          In a dynasty, I don’t think you ever trade a an elite player who is still young. Except the case where you have so many holes that it will take years to fill them otherwise.

          As several have responded you can’t do better in return than what you already have. Greg Jennings can be a great receiver but weeks of 2 and 3 can kill you, thus is the problem with a receiver.

          Jennings & Blount have combined for 150 points in my dynasty league… while Foster is already at 195 points.

          Even if Blount had scored 15 points every single week this season.. they barely would’ve combined surpassed Foster…

        • Palmer says:

          Haha, alright, all fair points. I ended up not doing that deal. But here is a legitimate question: Jahvid Best or LeGarrete Blount? I also own Best and am debating trading him for Blount and a young WR. So the question is, are we worried about Best and his nagging injuries or will he live up to the lofty expectations? Similarly, at what point will Blount become the next Shaun Alexander?

  9. Brian says:

    Chris Johnson has 136 points in 9 games (4th in scoring amongst RB’s), that comes out to 15 points per game.

    Michael Turner has 105 points through 9 games (14th in scoring for RB’s), that comes out to 12 points per game from 4th place to 14th.

    That’s only a difference of 3 points per game.

    Of course Foster is on top this year, he’s at on a 20 ppg clip. But that will not be reproduced next year. The top dog always falls off. Look at Turner, Brady, Brees, Manning, etc. These are PROVEN guys and even they couldn’t keep it going after their monster seasons. Sure, they stayed productive… but the kind of clip he is running at can’t be expected year in and year out. Sell high.

    It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict who the top player at any position will be year over year. You also can’t guarantee production. Look at what happened to Steve Slaton after his monster year. Matt Forte hasn’t been the same either. Everyone is talking like Foster is AP… HE ISN’T. He’s had 9 good games. You also have to consider that 60 of his points are from TD’s. You can’t count on him scoring 10 TD’s through 9 games year in and year out…. especially when he plays with Schaub and AJ. You also have to factor in that opposing defenses will get better at playing against him. He’s still new, they’ll adapt. And god forbid AJ gets hurt… say hello to 8 in the box.

    If you are realistic and project him to be a 12-15 point scorer next year, he really isn’t that much more valuable than Blount. Would I trade him straight up? No, of course not. But I think the package is good.

    And c’mon now, Greg Jennings is 15th right now. He’s ahead of Miles Austin, Reggie Wayne and Fitz (and they are still top tier WRs). You are kidding me if you don’t consider him a top 10 WR for a dynasty team. He plays with Aaron Rodgers in a pass happy system and he’ll be the WR1 for years to come. DLP’s own rankings put him at 9 and 10 for dynasty teams.

    So if Foster is worth even 15 points ppg going forward and even if you only project Blount at 10… Jennings more than makes up for the -5 difference. The rookie picks makes it easier to pull the trigger.

    It would be helpful if the OP had given his lineup and given us an estimate on where the rookie pick would land… those things do make a huge difference.

    • Paradis says:

      Sell high….
      -Find me someone who’s gonna sell AP or CJ for what you’re saying. Sell High? How about sell highest. The guy owns the league. You’re making waaay to many assumptions about Blount. How many RBs come and go in the this league that look like Blount. Try Graham on the same team a couple years ago. I’ve watched Foster, and there’s nothing fluky about the way he runs, the man hits holes and cuts with the best of the best.

      -Personally I’m not gonna give up the potential Fantasy Football 2010 MVP for a “maybe”, a draft pick, and Yes, a WR who’s ranked 20 in my league, and was 20 the year before that. He’s not Rodger’s Andre Johnson the way that guy is for Schaub. Nor will he ever be.

      -Unless he’s team has no chance of winning the league or he’s got nothing but Kevin Walter’s for WRs, I don’t see the need to gamble on something that as sure as Foster right now.

      “Look at what happened to Steve Slaton after his monster year. Matt Forte hasn’t been the same either”…
      -Forte never looked this good, and I wasn’t buying what slaton was selling. He was physically the kind of runner I saw dominating for years the way Foster looks now.
      “And god forbid AJ gets hurt… say hello to 8 in the box.”…
      -The same can be said with a Litany of RBs.

      “And c’mon now, Greg Jennings is 15th right now. He’s ahead of Miles Austin, Reggie Wayne and Fitz (and they are still top tier WRs)”….
      -I don’t know what league you’re playing in, but Jennings is behind all those guys, Way behind Wayne. Top 10? In dynasty circles I like Bryant, Crabtree, Nicks and others to have more productive fantasy careers than Jennings. GB has not under Rodgers ever been a 1 WR type team.

      Anyways, I’m not saying you’re way off base or an idiot, just I think you over crunching numbers and losing sight of the fact that Foster is what he is right now, the most productive RB in the league. Blount’s the sexy pick right now, and Jennings isn’t an elite WR, just a darn good one.

      • Chad says:

        I’d still pass on the deal…Blount will not last so bacisally your selling Foster for Jennings straight up.
        I agree with proven players but Foster is in a high power offense and will be taken as the #3 RB in re-drafts and be ranked top 3 dynasty RBs no question. You can’t give up a franchise dynasty RB for peenuts. Jennings is top 12 at his position and will likely be in the top 10 after this year but WR are easier to come by than franchise RBs. Pass on the deal and you can thank us later.

  10. Steve says:

    I have to agree with Paradis almost 100%. If jennings has shown you anything it is that he can be wildly inconsistent. Foster has had some big games and nothing about him shows that he will slow down, but nothing about him shows he will return to this form next year. Where I disagree is I am not sure Foster is an untouchable commodity. If you are getting a Mega, White or AJ along with Blount you pull that trigger fast. Blount has all the talent in the world, but obviously that isn’t quite enough in the NFL and the part that keeps guys elite, well thats where he lacks. So in my opinion unless you are getting a top 10 player NOW you don’t make the move. Right now you are getting the 20th best wr (best case 15th) and blount who is a bad incident away from being blackballed from the league for good. Also, pretty sure you said you are in the hunt for a ring, why would you want to risk that opportunity on a rookie and a very good wr when you have the most productive guy in all formats right now? Too much risk and not quite enough upside for my liking.

    • Steve says:

      Different Steve from the one up there

    • Paradis says:

      Let me say on the record Steve (version 2) that i totally agree. If we were talking legit top tier WRs, then thats a whole new story cause i value them over anything. Its much easier to find a Keiland Williams throughout the season to fill in for you, than it is a top flight WR. If they go down, 2 or 3 guys tend to absorb their numbers. Top RB goes down, there’s usually 1 benefactor and there’s also 3 or 4 opportunities like that every year.

  11. Brian says:

    I understand where you guys are coming from. I just don’t agree that Foster is the end all be all of RB’s like everyone here seems to think. If you read these posts, you would think that Foster is AP or CJ. Fact is, he isn’t. This is a monster year for him so far, but I can’t help but laugh if anyone thinks that he’s gonna be there year in and year out. No player stays #1 at their position year over year. They guy isn’t AP. I think that he is at the peak of his value.

    I went to espn.com and looked up the points leaders for all wr’s in a standard scoring format. http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/leaders?seasonId=2010&slotCategoryId=4

    Jennings is 15, Wayne 16, Austin 17, Fitz 20. That’s where I got the numbers. Greg Jennings hadn’t been living up to expectations because Donald Driver was siphoning points from him. Look at Jennings since week 6… averaging 92 yards/game and .75 TD’s.

    A lot of factors play into this. What is the size of the league? Who are his other players? Ya, if he already has Nicks and AJ, no way I pull the trigger. But if his 1′s are someone like Lloyd and Collie/Ocho or something? That makes a huge difference. His other RB’s play a huge factor as well. Is it a 12 team league? If so, no way I do it. If it’s a 32 team league like the one I play in? I trade him because I think his value doesn’t rise any farther, I get Blount to replace some current production, I get a rookie pick to draft another RB and I get Greg Jennings.

    We don’t know enough about it to really make a call… but I completely disagree with anyone who things that Arian Foster is the second coming of Jesus Christ at RB. He just isn’t. I also think everyone is valuing Greg Jennings too low, which is why he has the opportunity to pick him up.

    Sell High, Buy Low.

    • Chad says:

      So you would trade Foster for Jennings straight up? Driver is as good as gone, winter is coming to GB so Jennings #s will drop and Foster maybe the next big thing at RB (TD) you just never know, even you said (It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict). I would want more than a #10 dynasty WR, and scrub RB and a 1st for him but we can agree to disagree :)

    • Paradis says:

      Sounds like brian was one of the …”Pfff, Who cares about Foster, It’s Ben Tate’s job by Sept. Guaranteed”

      Don’t be bitter at Foster cause you blew a draft pick. ;)

  12. Brian says:

    I can see both sides. No, of course I wouldn’t trade Jennings for Foster straight up. I would do the package deal (depending on his league, roster, etc). I disagree with the supposed “lock” nature of Foster’s value and production going forward.

    The rookie pick could be extremely valuable. What if it’s top 15? He could get someone like Andrew Luck, Mark Ingram, AJ Green, Julio Jones, DeMarco Murray, Shane Vereen, Daniel Thomas, Kendall Hunter, Ryan Williams, Mikel Leshoure, Roy Helu, Jonathan Baldwin, Michael Floyd, Ryan Mallett, John Clay, etc.

    If you combine one of those guys with Blount and throw in Jennings? You’re telling me you wouldn’t even think about it?

    If so, that’s fine… but you can’t think that someone who would think about it is crazy. It’s not an absurd trade.

    • Paradis says:

      statistically speaking, 25% of the guys you listed will be busts, 25% will be JAGs, another 40% will be blips on the radar, and maybe 10% of them will ever come close to putting up Foster like numbers…

    • Chad says:

      I agree the trade isn’t absurd. I don’t like Blount long term and 1st are a crap shoot. So it boils down to Jennings for Foster. I would want a better RB in return than Blount.

  13. Curt says:

    Good mock, but Charles is a little too high for me. Haley is in love with power RBs like LJ and Jones, and even if Jones is gone after this year, something tells me Haley will bring in yet another aging RB like Brandon Jacobs (who almost certainly will be gone from the Giants after this season).

  14. Paradis says:

    In regards to the mock draft, I think That Deangelo Williams is obviously on the out in CAR and doesn’t have alot of miles on him when you consider his soft start with Foster, and then with Steward in the picture..

    If he signs with a competitive team like NE or GB, look out, an easy rnd 2 selection.

    • Steve 2.0 says:

      I agree, if D-Will could get on a team that actually runs the ball he could return back to top 10 status. He obviously has the skill just lacks the opportunity to be a stud

      • Cobra Kai says:

        I just traded my RB5 Ronnie Brown for DeAngelo thinking that even though he’s injured and Carolina sucks, his situation may look considerably brighter next year. He had 1,500 yds and 18 TDs in 2008. Of course, a lot of that was John Fox and his system. This is Fox’s last year in Carolina. Short a miraculous turnaround by Jason Garrett, I expect Fox to move to Dallas. Does he bring D-Will with him like Parcels took Curtis Martin from the Pats to the Jets?

        • Steve 2.0 says:

          I would doubt that IF Fox goes to dallas (which i dont think is that much of a sure thing due to the fact that Jerry has been paying garrett for years to do this job) but If he does I do not think he brings D-Will with him. Dallas has Felix, barber and Choice. That would be quite the overload. I would think D-Will would want to be “the guy” and would end up somewhere like Arizona, Washington, Cincy (maybe) and the most intriguing for his value NE.
          Like you, I also made a D-will trade with my season in tatters due to bad coaching, traded LT and Ocho for D-Will and Pettigrew (cap saving move as well as a look to the future) So I am hoping he does end up as the guy

  15. Derek says:

    What about Beanie Wells? Sure he has been injury plagued, but he has talent…where do you rank him?

  16. Skip says:

    Wow…STILL no love for the #1 WR in Philly. Desean Jackson’s deep threat cannot make up for the complete all-around WR in Maclin.

    You already passed on him in your draft earlier this season, do not make the same mistake twice or encourage others to follow in those footsteps.

  17. Chris R. says:

    Doesn’t that seem too low for a guy like Dez Bryant? He’s playing like a WR1 right now at the moment. He’s 21 years old, already looks better then Miles Austin, and looks like he’s having no problems carring your team as the WR1 right now, in 2011 he could emerge as a top 5 WR very easily.

    I don’t think there is any way I would start a dynasty and pick guys like Frank gore that much before him. I also think teams are looking at WR’s much earlier. MJD that early? I can think of a ton of WR’s i’d rather have then him. That’s not even taking into account the timespan a RB and WR can dominate.

    I’d much rather start out a dynasty with some type of combination of Hakeem Nicks, Roddy White & Dez Bryant. I’d take Dez late in the 1st if I had too. If you knew you were gonna get Andre Johnson for 10 more years wouldn’t you? I’d find a RB later in the draft, there are tons and tons and tons of RB’s you can find in a RBBC that will produce. Even if you struggle to get 1 early, you have 3 young dominate WR’s for at least the next 6-7 years, in the rookie draft next year, or during FA here and there you will find a guy to be consistent enough to produce.

    I’m not drafting Frank Gore for 2 more good years(maybe), or MJD for 4 more(maybe). Give me those WR’s for 10 more + the elite ones who will be good into 33 or 34.

    I just think Dez is too low, and some of those RB’s who don’t have much longer to go are WAY too high.

    I think it was back in 2008 we held the innagural draft, LT was taken #2 overall that season. I told people how ridiculous it was, and sure enough not long after he fell off, while still having some solid seasons nothing worth that slot. While guys like Roddy White and Greg Jennings were taken 5 rounds later, have out produced hime very single season since, and still have another 5-6 of high productive seasons.

    You tell me where the value is there.

  18. Rocky says:

    No Dwayne Bowe?

  19. jwelite says:

    i think moreno should be higher up. bringing in fox n his crew should really increase his fantasy value. i can see him getting at least 40 receptions as well…especially if he’s the lone back in denver

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