2020 NFL Draft Prospect – Lynn Bowden, WR Kentucky
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Lynn Bowden, WR from Kentucky. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned and stay ahead of your league!
The wide receiver position has more talent than I can remember in my seven years of playing dynasty fantasy football. Look no further than last season. A staggering 134 different receivers posted at least one top-36 (WR3) week and 76 different receivers posted at least one top-12 (WR1) week. As of March, 48 of the top 96 picks in startup ADP are wide receivers. For context, it’s a very tough year to make a difference as a rookie at the position.
Bowden enters the 2020 NFL Draft as a junior and at 22.5 years old, is on the older side when compared to his peers in the class. His three years at Kentucky could be classified as nothing short of dynamic and as we breakdown his incredible junior season and versatility, an argument can be made to keep Bowden on your radar in upcoming rookie drafts.
THE STATS
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
Bowden enrolled at Kentucky in the spring of 2017 as a four-star prospect out of Youngstown, OH and was the 164th overall player and third overall player in Ohio in the 2017 class. He settled as the number three wide receiver as a freshman and posted only 17 catches during his first campaign. He made a significant impact on special teams serving as the team’s primary kick returner, gaining almost 900 yards in the return game.
After the departure of multiple wide receivers following the 2017 season and the graduation of quarterback Stephen Johnson, Bowden was poised for a breakout sophomore season and he certainly delivered. Despite a very run-heavy offense led by Benny Snell‘s 306 touches and over 1,500 yards, the dynamic sophomore led the team in catches (67), receiving yards (745) and receiving touchdowns (five). This accounts for the age-20 breakout and cemented Bowden on the radar of devy owners in anticipation of a big junior season to come.
Fast forward to the spring of 2019. Quarterback Terry Wilson returned to an offense that was facing the replacement of Benny Snell’s production and looking to become more of a passing team. After backup quarterback Gunnar Hoak transferred to Ohio State, Kentucky entered the year with Wilson as the starter and only one experienced backup quarterback on the roster. After Bowden posted 13 catches for 131 yards in the first two games of the year, Wilson suffered a season-ending injury at the end of the second game of the year against Eastern Michigan. Junior Sawyer Smith started the third game against Florida and Bowden didn’t miss a beat, posting seven catches for 70 yards in a nail-biting loss against the Gators. The next week, Bowden hauled in seven catches for 129 yards in a loss against Mississippi State and in the fifth game, a pathetic 24-7 loss at South Carolina, he entered the game at QB and never looked back.
In the final eight games of the season, Bowden rushed for 1,389 yards and 13 touchdowns, while throwing an additional three touchdowns. Kentucky was one of the run-heaviest teams in the nation and led by Bowden at QB, won six of their final eight games including 22-touch, 284-yard and four-touchdown performance against rival Louisville. He finished with the most rushing yards in the SEC and was named the Paul Hornung Award Winner as the nation’s most versatile player.
PRE-COMBINE
Bowden was completely off-the-radar before the combine as he slotted in as the 53rd overall player in the February ADP.
THE MEASURABLES
On February 26th 2020, it was reported the Bowden would be limited at the Combine due to a right hamstring injury that he suffered just a few days before the start of the event. He was able to meet with NFL teams but did not participate in any of the drills. His March 27th pro day at Kentucky was canceled due to the Covid-19 impact and thus, he has no available testing numbers.
Despite the lack of numbers, his ADP has risen 21.17 spots from February to March.
According to the Mock Draft Database 2020 Big Board, Bowden is projected at 123 or the 4.17 in the upcoming NFL Draft and at this slot, would be the 21st wide receiver off the board.
WHERE HE FITS
As noted earlier, the wide receiver position is very strong in the current dynasty landscape and Bowden enters with an extremely impressive and deep class. Given the lack of testing, dynasty owners will need an NFL team to invest significant draft capital into the Kentucky junior and do so based on a college production profile that is one-of-a-kind in the class. If he is selected on day two of the NFL Draft (top 106 picks), I’m very confident in an immediate impact as a rookie.
The ultimate question with this player will be his future role as an actual WR. Does a team see Bowden as a “Jack of All Trades” chess piece who becomes more valuable on the field than in fantasy? Does he project to earn a full-time slot role like former Kentucky brethren Randall Cobb or a veteran like Mohamed Sanu? If so, a ceiling comparison of Deebo Samuel could be in the cards for him and would come significantly cheaper than Samuel who was the ninth overall player off the board according to ADP after the 2019 NFL Draft.
DYNASTY VALUE
According to current March ADP, Bowden is the 42nd overall player (4.06) and the 20th wide receiver off the board. Based on the numbers noted above (21st projected WR off the board in the NFL Draft), he’s likely to move up or down approximately six-eight picks based on his landing spot and potential that he is drafted higher or lower than this projection. Comfortably, you should be able to get him after the first 30 picks and can feel comfortable selecting him in this range based on a significant tier break coming after the middle of the second.
Arguably, Bowden brings a very similar skill-set as someone like Laviska Shenault and will come at a significantly cheaper price.
In RB-premium leagues where players are awarded points for carries and leagues with points for return yardage, I’m willing to move him up about half a round, over other receivers who will not contribute in this capacity.
CONCLUSION
In a lesser class, Lynn Bowden may be getting a lot more buzz. Despite not testing at the Combine or a pro day, the community has begun to talk about him (as noted in his ADP rise from February to March). His landing spot and draft capital will be a significant piece of the puzzle to cement his final ADP, but ultimately, it’s hard to imagine a player with his pedigree, talent, production on the biggest stage of college football and his versatility being a bust in the NFL. Combine this floor with his significant upside as a starting slot receiver and do-it-all weapon for an NFL offense, and he is one of the best values in this class.
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