Rookie Bust Mock: Round Two
Most rookie mock drafts you see like to focus on the strengths of each prospect selected. This isn’t one of those drafts.
At this point in the process, dynasty owners are used to hearing about the impressive burst and agility of Ezekiel Elliot and the eye popping quickness of Corey Coleman. For good reason, we tend to focus our attention on the positives in each prospect’s game. In this mock however, we’ll try to throw up the red flag on some of the weaknesses that our favorite rookies possess and explain which ones have the most potential to “bust.”
To be clear, we’re not necessarily proclaiming a player as a bust in this exercise. We just want to shine a light on some of the things that should concern dynasty owners going into their rookie drafts.
There was only one rule for who was eligible for this three-round mock draft. To make sure all players taken were relevant dynasty picks, any player selected had to be ranked as a top-48 overall rookie according to DLF’s rookie rankings.
We already covered round one, let’s continue with round two.
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2.01 – Braxton Miller, WR Ohio State
Graham Barfield’s thoughts: Why is Miller a top-15 pick in pre-draft rookie ADP? Miller had two games with more than two receptions in his first year playing wide receiver at Ohio State, he turns 24-years-old in November and is largely a total project for an NFL team from the get-go. His 82nd percentile SPARQ score helps his case, but his floor is much too low to warrant a top-20 draft pick in rookie drafts. Give me Tulsa’s Keyarris Garrett about a round and a half later if I’m taking a stab at a project-type player.
My thoughts: I couldn’t agree more with Graham’s thoughts. Miller doesn’t have any history of being a playmaker as a receiver. He depends strictly on his athleticism and lacks route running skills or quality hands which isn’t the necessary ingredients to make a fantasy relevant NFL receiver. A square peg in a round hole, I’ll pass on Miller no matter how far he slips in rookie drafts.
2.02 – Pharoh Cooper, WR South Carolina
Matt Price’s thoughts: Those drafting Cooper will be waiting for quite a while on him to become a consistent fantasy producer. He is an extremely raw player who excels in open space but hasn’t shown the ability to create it on his own which means the offense will have to fabricate those opportunities for him. He doesn’t seem to be able to beat press coverage in one on one situations. To this means he will be a gadget type player and I generally avoid those for fantasy purposes because the opportunities are limited. His upside at this point seems to be what Tavon Austin is now and Austin was a much more polished player coming into the league.
My thoughts: Despite being one of my favorite prospects in this draft class considering the price, Cooper certainly has some question marks attached to him leading up to the draft. Small in stature (5’-11”, 203 pounds) and with only a 31 inch vertical, he’s not going to sky for jump balls or make contested catches in the deep middle of the field. Also with far more explosion than overall speed, he’ll be limited to playing the role of a slot receiver. Depending on where he ends up, that could be either a good or a bad thing.
2.03 – Hunter Henry, TE Arkansas
Jacob Feldman’s thoughts: Henry is likely to be the first tight end selected, both in the NFL draft and in your fantasy draft. Unfortunately, it is an extremely weak class. If you are in need of a tight end, I would much rather take the pick and trade it for a young tight end who is still developing (like Maxx Williams) than spend it on Henry. I don’t see any tight end in this draft class who has the ability to be a weekly starter in fantasy leagues. Just not much there this year. People will overdraft him because he’s the top tight end on the board, don’t make that mistake.
My thoughts: Although he has enough athleticism to get open, Henry isn’t going to be confused with the top pass catching tight ends in the NFL anytime soon. Instead, he’s a hard worker that is good at all facets of playing the game as an in-line tight end, but lacks the exceptional burst or route running to be a true game changer for dynasty owners. The best case scenario is that Henry becomes a Heath Miller clone and that he won’t reach that potential for at least a couple years.
2.04 – C.J. Prosise, RB Notre Dame
Trevor Bucher’s thoughts: I love me some Prosise at the right price, but we need to acknowledge his bust potential. He runs like a back smaller than his actual size, and his skill set has many looking at him as a potential receiving back. I find this concerning due to his relatively small hand size that may have cropped up as an issue with his relatively high fumble rate. I also think this could be a concern for making contested catches out of the backfield. He will have to compete for playing time early and ball security issues could send him down the bust path quickly.
My thoughts: Prosise is a player I would have considered in the first round of this mock. Although he has ideal size and a nice cutback, he’s slow to hit the hole at times and doesn’t display good determination and decision making at the line of scrimmage for a guy with his burst. Only a running back for a year in college, he has upside but also could be weighted down due to his lack of experience.
2.05 – Garrett Keyarris, WR Tulsa
Jeff Miller’s thoughts: In January, Garrett was going undrafted in our rookie mocks. By February, he’d climbed to 49th. Two months later, Garrett was the 29th player selected, and now I’m hearing people talk as though he could find himself at the top of the second round. Any time a player climbs this much seemingly only because of his workout metrics and measurables, I get concerned.
Being a physical specimen certainly never hurt a player, but it seems like that is the primary reason Garrett went from undraftable to a potential top-20 rookie is because he is big (6-foot 3-inches, 221 pounds) and fast (4.53 40). All this ignores sloppy routes, 13 drops over his last two seasons, and lack of overall polish. Simply put, he isn’t a great football player and made hay against meh competition at Tulsa.
My thoughts: Keyarris may sound fast for his size and the 40-time Jeff mentioned above may sound impressive but when you watch him, he’s not nearly that fast in pads. Watching him on film he seems to take forever to get off the line of scrimmage, often times rocking back on his heels instead of exploding off the ball. His sloth-like movements are also on display at the top of his routes as he rarely explodes out of his breaks. There are some out there that see Keyarris as a sleeper in rookie drafts but I’m not one of them.
2.06 – Mike Thomas, WR Southern Mississippi
Ryan McDowell’s thoughts: Things were looking good for former Southern Miss wide receiver Mike Thomas, not to be confused with Ohio State’s Thomas. He was getting some attention and gaining some dynasty value until the NFL Combine invites were announced and Thomas was left off the list. This is a huge red flag, despite the numbers Thomas put up in college. It’s highly important for us to take in all the information NFL teams give us and this was a big one. Yet, based on rookie draft ADP, dynasty players are still willing to spend a mid-second round pick on Thomas. Not me!
My thoughts: I just don’t get it with Thomas. On top of producing only against second rate competition, he’s a below-average athlete and lacks the precision in his route running and soft hands of a starting NFL receiver. Some see him as top-20 prospect in dynasty rookie drafts but I’ll let somebody else select him and push far better players to me later in the second round.
2.07 – Sterling Shepard, WR Oklahoma
My thoughts: Don’t get me wrong here, I like Shepard. I’m just a little leery of taking him as highly as the middle of the first round of rookie drafts, like he has been. Despite making route running look easy and showing excellent hands, his 5’-10”, 194 pound frame will likely cause problems getting off the press and he’s almost surely going to be limited to slot receiver duties in the NFL. His dynasty value is more reliant on landing spot than any other prospect in this draft. If he ends up in an offense that features and needs a slot man, he could be a bargain. If he ends up in a place where he’s miscast as a vertical weapon or buried behind other wide outs in an offense that rarely sends out three wide outs, he could be considered a reach in round two of rookie drafts.
2.08 – De’Runnya Wilson, WR Mississippi State
George Kritikos’ thoughts: Wilson is clinging to NFL Draft hopes, with most pundits placing him as a sixth or seventh round option at best. Meanwhile, dynasty owners have clung more tightly, seeing him go anywhere from the mid second to mid third in various rookie drafts. His methods to gain yards (and score touchdowns) have relied purely on using his size and being physical with lesser talents at cornerback. Coming into the NFL, Wilson’s inability to separate, suspect hands, and failure to utilize the subtle route selling techniques are going to limit him to an end of the NFL roster option. Do not be fooled by his size, he is not the athlete his frequently cited comparable Darren Waller is.
My thoughts: I was once one of the big Wilson fans that George mentioned above. With incredible physical traits and the ability to “box out” defenders when going up for a jump ball, he looked like the next big thing. That’s about all he has going for him though. Incredibly stiff as a route runner and lacking the athleticism and technique to get separation, I’m afraid De’Runnya will never realize the potential I once thought he had.
2.09 – Jordan Howard, RB Indiana
Izzy Elkaffas’ thoughts: This one was pretty easy for me. Howard has a decent floor since he does have solid vision, instincts and power. That said, I have a really hard time seeing him as a full-time lead back in the NFL. Has very little shiftiness to his game, is uninspiring in the pass game and has to punish his way for extra yards. Sure, a lot of backs do that, but not when they come with a laundry list of injuries in both high school and college to boot. If he can’t stay healthy against smaller competition, imagine the trouble he’ll have at the next level. He’s just not worth the late first/early second investment.
My thoughts: As a guy that watched Howard play a lot last year, the first thing I question about Howard is if he’ll be able to stay on the field consistently. It seemed like every time I watched him play, he limped off the field and would miss plays or series’ due to being banged up. Although he only missed a few games due to injury, three-down running backs don’t stay three-down running backs in the NFL if they can’t stay on the field.
2.10 – Charone Peake, WR Clemson
Nathan Powell’s thoughts: Peake is seen as one of the better “upside” picks in this year’s draft, but with an ADP of 24 overall pre-draft, that is too expensive for a players whose most likely outcome is closer to being dropped midseason than being as usable fantasy asset long term.
My thoughts: Peake is actually one of my favorite targets in the late-second, early-third round part of rookie drafts due to his intriguing combination of size (6’-2”, 209 pounds) and speed (4.45 40-time) but there are things to be concerned about when it comes to his upside. Not a natural pass catcher, he looks uncomfortable at times at the point of the catch which has caused drops and his injury history is alarming. Nonetheless, Peake still has five-star talent and if he can put it together, he has the potential to be the steal of rookie drafts.
2.11 – Alex Collins, RB Arkansas
Bruce Matson’s thoughts: Collins has a few red flags that stand out to me. He only caught 27 passes during his entire career at Arkansas, giving an impression that he lacks the ability to be a threat catching the ball out of the backfield. His value in PPR leagues will be dependent on volume of carries and touchdowns. Not being able to handle a large market share of the passing down work could limit his ability to be an every week fantasy contributor in the future. Another concern with Collins is his lack of athleticism. His 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump and bench all rank below average compared to all running backs who participated in the combine since 1999. It’s going to be hard for Collins to flash in camp with subpar athleticism and it could be a factor that keeps him from getting playing time early in his career.
My thoughts: To go along with the pass catching deficiencies and lack of athleticism that Bruce mentioned above, Collins struggled with lost fumbles throughout his time at Arkansas. Those drawbacks could limit him to being part of a committee which could put a cap on his fantasy upside despite his great vision and goal line prowess.
2.12 – Cardale Jones, QB Ohio State
Eric Olinger’s thoughts: I understand the league is desperate for signal callers but I do not believe Jones has NFL talent. He made a mistake not coming out last year when everyone was in love with him & had him mocked in the first round. Now he made a mistake by not going back and honing his skill. I don’t think he has the mental capacity, drive or on field talent to be effective at this level.
My thoughts: Jones is simply too inaccurate to be an NFL quarterback and lacks the skill to handle the complexities of the position. Having only started a handful of games in college he’s still raw and could develop at some point, but it’s very questionable at best if that’s worth rostering even in the deepest dynasty leagues.
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