Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Nine

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game. Also, a “Number to Remember” will be provided that will center on a key statistic that will influence the game and your dynasty team.

Early Games

Miami at Buffalo
Number to Remember (NTR) – 41

Buffalo sees 41 pass attempts per game, among the five most in the league in 2015. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill is one of eight quarterbacks with 40 or more attempts in four different games, one of which was last week with the new coaching staff. I expect number five to occur here with some receivers seeing a bump in volume.

A favorite of mine in the offseason, Kenny Stills has firmly planted himself as the third receiver, logging 84% of the offensive snaps last week against New England. His volume has been erratic but he has ten catches in his last four games, including a touchdown. Rookie Devante Parker clearly has become an afterthought.

Perhaps the most difficult offense to predict, largely a result of injuries, has their quarterback returning as Tyrod Taylor is back. Taylor is one of just two quarterbacks with a 70% completion rate or better and is fifth in the NFL with a 6.6% touchdown rate on pass attempts. Miami is a weak pass defense, Taylor should thrive from the onset.

Jacksonville at New York Jets
NTR – 78.1 and 3.5

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The Jets lead the league with just 78.1 yards per game allowed on the ground. The Jaguars allow the fewest yards per carry with 3.5 per attempt. I suspect this may become an aerial display, but the results are hard to predict.

A bye week could not have come soon enough for Julius Thomas as he was struggling after injury to the tune of a 50% catch rate (he logged 65%+ in his two seasons prior). Thomas is still finding his way in this offense but should establish himself as a key underneath option. If the Jaguars intend to pass consistently here, Julius needs to show them the juice from years past.

A team dealing with receiver injuries all season, Kenbrell Thompkins made his first team appearance, managing six catches on seven targets. The former Patriot and Raider has largely been an inconsistent receiver (sub 50% catch rate) with limited explosiveness, but the team needs warm bodies to rotate in while their starters remain hobbled.

Washington at New England
NTR – 10.1

Want a number that will surely change? How about the 10.1 fantasy points per game Washington allows to tight ends (fifth lowest)? It is deceptive given Jordan Cameron may have been the most talented opponent they have played. Now they get Rob Gronkowski.

All the talk of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones has left Chris Thompson a player overlooked but he may be their most effective back this season. He leads the team in yards per carry, is the only runner with a 40+ yard run, and has added 23 receptions on the season. This backfield remains a mess but Thompson deserves your attention as more than a flyer option.

Normally, I reserve the space for younger players but Tom Brady is doing something truly remarkable at age 38. He has thrown just one interception and his 0.3% interception rate would be the lowest percentage in NFL history. Add in 344.3 passing yards per game, also what would be an NFL record, and it is hard to not appreciate his first half.

Oakland at Pittsburgh
NTR – 8

Oakland has struggled against tight ends and Heath Miller is one of six tight ends with multiple 8+ reception games in 2015. The Raiders lead the league with seven touchdowns allowed to the position. If Heath gets volume like last week (10 receptions on 13 targets), he should see the end zone for the second time.

Andre Holmes may have only played 45% of the team’s snaps against the Jets, but he scored touchdowns on both his catches. This was more a result of Derek Carr forced to use secondary options than a breakout for Holmes. Unless one of the starters gets injured, Holmes is good for a key play now and then, nothing more.

We are back to DeAngelo Williams after Le’Veon Bell saw his season end from a knee injury. Williams will have former second rounder Isaiah Pead as a backup, another player of interest. If DeAngelo is unable to rekindle his early season success, Pead could get a chance at some meaningful carries.

Green Bay at Carolina
NTR – 4

Both secondaries have played great in 2015, each allowing just four touchdowns to wide receivers in seven games played. The majority of pass touchdowns for both teams are going to the position so the quarterbacks may need to involve other skill players to impact the scoreboard.

Aaron Rodgers is always good for a clunker or two every year and last week was a big one. The 77 passing yards were his career low for a full game. Given the strength of Carolina’s secondary, he could see another poor performance, which would impact the entire team. He is the guy to monitor.

Mentioned early in the season, Corey Brown has quietly become the Panthers most used receiver (led the team with 72 offensive snaps last week). He also has back-to-back weeks of three catches on five targets (both season highs) while adding his second receiving touchdown of the season. It will be tough sledding for the diminutive sophomore but he will be an option on every pass play.

St. Louis at Minnesota
NTR – 8

While these are solid run defenses, the running backs are among the best in the NFL. Between them, they have eight runs of 30+ yards with Todd Gurley leading the league (five) and Adrian Peterson second. Those big plays will be necessary to break the opposition’s front seven.

Since Gurley has been starting, there has been little room for other runners on the field. However, Tre Mason awoke from the bench and had 15 carries for 46 yards in relief last week. If the team is smart, they do all they can to use both backs and limit the times Nick Foles has to pass.

Rookie MyCole Pruitt played 28 snaps last week and saw career highs in targets (three), catches (two), and yards (15). With the state of the Vikings receiver depth chart in flux after Stefon Diggs, Pruitt could see his snap share continue to increase as the youngster is an explosive option underneath.

Tennessee at New Orleans
NTR – 232.6

The Titans allow the third fewest total yards to quarterbacks per game. New Orleans manages the third most thanks to Drew Brees. No quarterback has managed over 254 yards (Tannehill) against this defense. Brees likely changes that.

Marcus Mariota is in line to start this week and not a moment too soon as Zach Mettenberger struggled, failing to top 200 passing yards in either of his starts. Mariota, on the other hand, has topped 200 total yards in all five of his starts and faces a team that has been the most generous to fantasy quarterbacks in 2015.

Everyone on the Saints feasted in last week’s shootout, including Marques Colston who doubled his previous season high in receptions (eight) and had his first 100 yard receiving game of the year. He is still third on the receiver hierarchy, fourth if you count Ben Watson, but he does have three or more catches in all but one game this year.

Afternoon Games

Atlanta at San Francisco
NTR – 2.5

The 49ers have made some offensive changes (more on that in a minute) and a large reason is their league low 2.5% touchdown rate on attempts, last in the NFL. Atlanta has allowed a touchdown on just 2.9%, sixth best and a number that will likely get lower after this game.

Friend of DLF Richard Janvrin must have been ecstatic to see rookie Justin Hardy see his first offensive action, managing two catches on four targets while playing 66% of the team snaps. Hardy is sure-handed and fights for every yard, playing the game with a tenacity a level above his peers. I would like to see Hardy be used more going forward, but this may have just been a case of a limited receiver depth chart due to injuries.

This offense is in shambles. They are now turning to Blaine Gabbert, former first round pick and current disaster of a quarterback. His last starting stint (three games in 2013) led to a 49% completion rate with seven interceptions to just one touchdown. In 27 career starts, he has just one 300 yard game, in 2012.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay
NTR – 631.3

The Giants and Buccaneers are hospitable to quarterbacks with both in the top five for yards allowed per game to quarterbacks, totaling 631.3 yards. Both quarterbacks are attractive options…for fantasy that is.

Everything except for the win-loss column went right for the Giants offense. Larry Donnell will be out so Will Tye is expected to start. Tye has caught eight of twelve passes this year and has three multi-catch games, but his experience is limited to 2015. If you are desperate for a tight end, Tye would be an extreme gamble with a little upside in what could be another high scoring affair.

With Vincent Jackson out again, the wide receiver carousel next to Mike Evans is spinning quickly. Adam Humphries was second in team targets (six) while Harvard alum Cameron Brate tied for the team lead in receiving yards (48). Basically, I don’t know who to pick and I would be terrified to start either of them. Still worth watching though.

Denver at Indianapolis
NTR – 17.9% and 17.0%

It is difficult to avoid highlighting the Broncos defense, with their 17.9% turnover rate on drives (third most) an example of their dominance. The Colts offense has ended 17.0% of their drives with turnovers, also third, but not in the good way. I am not expecting an efficient game from Andrew Luck.

How about a C.J. Anderson sighting?! He managed season highs in carries (14) and rushing yards (101) along with his first touchdown of the year. Ronnie Hillman is still the starter but the bye week may have helped CJA recover from his early season ailments.

This Colts receiving core is hard to find consistency in but Coby Fleener has been the safest bet. Fleener has five or more targets in five of his last six games with multiple receptions in all six. Largely, he is being used as an option underneath but does have the ability to play down the field. He should be a big part of the offense as the receivers struggle to get open.

Sunday Night Game

Philadelphia at Dallas
NTR – 1.43

The Eagles defense does not get enough credit. They allow just 1.43 points per drive (fourth lowest) and lead the league with a 28.6% of defensive drives ending in a turnover. Dallas is still finding their way on offense and this matchup will delay that exploration one more week.

Ryan Mathews has been the best running back on the Eagles, but is a man without a role. He has only seen one game of double digit carries and two with zero targets. That said, he leads the team in yards per carry (6.1) and has caught 80% of his targets (also first among the running backs). It is time to give him some work.

No need to argue anymore, the running back job is Darren McFadden’s barring injury. He is a complete back who is breaking runs (16% of runs going for 10+ yards, a career high) and has caught 17 of 20 targets in the last three weeks. He should remain the bellcow while Christine Michael owners continue to hope for that “what if?” scenario.

Monday Night Game

Chicago at San Diego
NTR – 24.6

Good luck ending a Chargers drive. They are second in the NFL with 24.6 first downs generated per game (behind only New England). The opposition has scored at least 24 points against them in every game so possession is important to limit the defense’s exposure.

Matt Forte is out so rookie Jeremy Langford (last week’s spotlight) is getting his first chance to start. In 12 carries last week, Langford averaged 3.8 yards per carry against a tough Vikings run defense. The Chargers are among the five worst against the run so Langford has a chance to shine in this matchup.

Everyone is looking to Stevie Johnson as the Keenan Allen replacement, but don’t forget about Dontrelle Inman. He had 12 catches on 17 targets in weeks 15 and 16 last year, making people excited for his future. Now, having inconsistent play in 2015, Inman has a chance now to be an intermediate option for a top passing offense. He is cheaper and healthier than Johnson playing a terrible Bears pass defense. Inman could surprise.

*All numbers courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference

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