The Big Uneasy: Can CJ Spiller Save the Saints?
It’s been a bit of a head scratching off-season for the Saints’ offense. Perennially fielding one of the top passing offenses in the league, Mickey Loomis and Sean Payton have apparently changed their offensive philosophy. Their transactions over the last couple weeks suggest the high flying Saints are about to become a bit more committed to their rushing attack.
After re-signing Mark Ingram before free agency, the Saints shipped two of their best receiving weapons out of The Crescent City, dealing Jimmy Graham to Seattle and Kenny Stills to the Dolphins. Then instead of investing in replacing some of Drew Brees’ fire power lost through those deals, the Saints signed C.J. Spiller.
The combination of moves didn’t only shake up the New Orleans locker room, but it also sent shockwaves through the dynasty community. Let’s investigate how the addition of Spiller as well as the loss of quality targets will affect the Saints’ playmakers.
C.J. Spiller, RB NO
Many dynasty owners (including myself) have been frustrated for years about how the Bills misused Spiller. Instead of playing to his strengths, Buffalo’s coaching staffs over the last five years have been intent on using the former Clemson star as a between the tackles runner rather than trying to get him in space.
That shouldn’t be the problem in New Orleans.
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In Payton’s time in New Orleans, he’s proven he could use talented players to their strengths. Before Brandin Cooks was hurt last year, Payton regularly found ways to get him the ball in space and even put him in the backfield in an attempt to create mismatches. Payton did much of the same with Graham while he was in New Orleans. Regularly moving him around the formation, Payton did everything he could to put Graham in winnable matchups.
Reggie Bush also had his most productive years with Payton early in his career as a multi-dimensional tailback. Payton moved Bush around the formation to get him in exploitable matchups in the passing game and used him primarily as a perimeter runner and slashing tailback in the run game.
There’s no reason to expect anything less from Payton when it comes to Spiller.
With Ingram firmly in place as the lead runner for the Saints, Spiller will most likely fill the role left behind by Pierre Thomas as the primary passing down tailback who mixes in on first and second downs. For those of you who aren’t impressed with the proposition of Spiller being the next Thomas, relax. While Thomas looked good in that role, he doesn’t have the vision or explosiveness Spiller can offer.
Health has also been a concern over the years with Spiller. Although it seems like he’s always coming off the field or missing snaps during a game because of injury, the fact is that he’s played at least 14 games in four of five NFL seasons. While injury is a concern, it’s also possible that being used properly on the perimeter of the defense rather than with the big guys inside will keep him healthier.
Overall, as long as he stays healthy Spiller should carry the ball 120-160 times this year and should set career highs in catches (43 in 2012) as well as receiving yards (459) and touchdown receptions (2). Dynasty owners shouldn’t be surprised if he approaches the receiving numbers that Bush put up early in his career and should see Spiller as a high-end RB3 with the upside to post low-end RB1 numbers in PPR leagues.
Mark Ingram, RB NO
If there was a fantasy winner in the trade that sent Graham to the great northwest, it may have been Ingram. The addition of Max Unger through that deal has bolstered their offensive line tremendously. With Ingram in line to receive a bulk of the early down work behind that improved line, there’s very little reason to believe he can’t repeat the impact he had in 2014 and surpass his numbers from a year ago.
Some have expressed concern that Ingram’s 2014 numbers were due to him playing in a contract year and now that he signed a new four-year deal he may revert back to the Ingram of old. Personally, I’ve never been a very big believer in the whole “contract year motivation” thing.
As a whole, Ingram’s fantasy value has risen over the last couple weeks simply because the Saints seem hell bent on producing a quality ground game. While Spiller’s presence will cut into his potential as a receiver slightly, all signs point to Ingram getting the lion’s share of the carries in New Orleans. Dynasty owners should pencil Ingram in as a low-end RB1 in standard leagues and high-end RB2 in PPR leagues. He could finally realize his potential from a few years ago in 2015.
Khiry Robinson, RB NO
Buzz has surrounded Robinson for each of the last two off-seasons. Last year rumors swirled that the Saints intended to increase his opportunities in 2014, but a fractured arm quickly put an end to that in week seven after he impressed with a bigger role for the previous few weeks. This year, with Ingram’s contract expiring, many expected Robinson to get his chance – that’s obviously not the case though now that Ingram is back and Spiller is locked in as the number two tailback.
Robinson still has upside, but clearly being the third option in the backfield isn’t going to make his path to playing time very easy. Payton has used multiple backs in the past and that may still be the case in 2015, but it’s unlikely that Robinson gets enough touches to be useful to fantasy owners without an injury to either Ingram or Spiller.
Although he should absolutely be rostered in most leagues because of his upside, dynasty owners should temper their short term expectations with Robinson.
Drew Brees, QB NO
Although many believe the trades of Graham and Stills are a clear sign the Saints front office and coaching staff believe Brees is regressing, I’m not buying it. If that were true, the Saints would be trading Brees, not his best targets.
It’s pretty clear to me New Orleans sees a good running attack and defense as the best way to get Brees another Super Bowl ring and the decision makers there feel they can get Brees more playmakers. While Spiller was a good start, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Saints add another through the draft. After all, they do have a pair of first round selections.
Dynasty owners should see how things shake out before panicking about their franchise quarterback. Brees is still a high-end QB1. Don’t trade him for anything less than that value.
Brandin Cooks, WR NO
After all the movement among Brees’ receivers, Cooks is left as the top fantasy target in New Orleans.
The Saints primarily used Cooks as an underneath receiver as a rookie, trying to get him in space. Before he got hurt, Payton started experimented with using Cooks as a vertical target out of the slot much like the Packers do with Randall Cobb and the Giants do with Victor Cruz. While they only tried it a handful of times and it wasn’t hugely successful, it’s clear the Saints coaching staff sees the potential in Cooks to be more than a gadget player.
Most likely, Cooks is part of the reason the Saints felt they could part with Graham and Stills. I’d be quite surprised if he’s not a very big part of their game plan going forward. He has WR1 upside in PPR leagues as early as week one this year.
Marques Colston, WR NO
Colston can’t be relied upon as a WR2 any longer, but he is a nice bench receiver to have around for bye weeks. While the Saints’ moves don’t impact him in a big way, he could see a few more targets and a slight resurgence. Fantasy owners should not be relying on him, however.
Nick Toon, WR NO
At this point, Toon is a starting wideout for the Saints on the outside. His upside isn’t great, but Toon has been in New Orleans for three years now and has drawn praise from Payton in the past. There’s a clear path to playing time and any receiver playing with Brees has the potential to be a fantasy contributor. While his path to playing time may not last past the draft, he should be owned in nearly all leagues.
Josh Hill, TE NO
Hill is an interesting player now that Graham is out of town. Although he entered the league with very little fanfare as an undrafted free agent, he’s taken advantage of his opportunities by turning six of his 20 career receptions into touchdowns.
With only Benjamin Watson and Hill on the roster at the position, the Saints are likely to add another tight end in the coming weeks so expectations shouldn’t get out of control. With that said, however, Hill has shown quickness, runs quality routes and has good hands. There’s a chance the Saints plan to use he and Watson in a rotation and if that’s the case, Hill is the one to own. He’s a TE2 with upside at this point and should be owned in nearly all dynasty leagues.
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