Tuesday Transactions: Week Seven
Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint. With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format, and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications. As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.
Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories: players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so. Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.
Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own. If you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns. With that said, I believe there’s also enough of a sample size thus far in the season where we can begin to diverge from our off-season assessments.
In the interest of transparency, here were my week six suggestions:
Buy Low: Jace Amaro, Isaiah Crowell and Davante Adams
Sell High: Andrew Quarless, Joe Flacco and Joique Bell
Buy High: TY Hilton, Andre Holmes and Shane Vereen
Sell Low: Hakeem Nicks, Chris Johnson and Montee Ball
Amaro (3-22-0) fell off a bit as quarterback Geno Smith spread the love, Crowell (7-18-0, 1-5-0) remained the RB2 in a humiliating loss to Jacksonville and Adams (1-21-1) made the most of his limited opportunities in a laugher versus Carolina. Quarless (1-9-0) remained an ancillary piece once again, Flacco (258-2-2) predictably came back down to earth and Bell (18-48-1, 2-19-0) hit pay dirt despite another inefficient outing. Hilton (7-107-0) cracked the century mark once again, Holmes (3-34-0) failed to build on his previous momentum and Vereen (11-43-0, 5-71-2) was unleashed on the Jets. Nicks (0-0-0) didn’t see a target, Johnson (13-61-0, 2-19-0) showed signs of life but was again outplayed by backfield mate Chris Ivory and Ball was again inactive.
Onto the fallout from week seven!
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Buy Low
1. Austin Davis, QB STL – Because honestly, why not? Through six games, all the former UDFA has done is complete two-thirds of his passes while averaging 253 yards per game and sporting a 9:4 touchdown/interception ratio. Digging deeper, it hasn’t all been smoke and mirrors as his 7.36 YPA average currently checks in at #14 in the league (amongst quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts), ahead of such players as Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Cam Newton and Jay Cutler, to name a few. His Sunday QB Rating of 128.6 is the highest the Seahawks have allowed all year, and the rest-of-season schedule lightens significantly. He should only cost a late-round pick in standard leagues (and a mid-rounder in superflex/2QB leagues), but the upside is worth it.
2. Denard Robinson, RB JAX – Unless you play in a “point-per-shoelaces-tied” league, D-Rob should now be on your radar. Saddled with poor play by supposed workhorse Toby Gerhart and rookie Storm Johnson, the Jaguars finally got an injection of life at running back as Robinson ran his way to 127 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. He didn’t see any work in the passing game, but had previously averaged just under two receptions per game, buoying his value in PPR leagues. The price will definitely be inflated from where it was last week, but still could represent a bargain – especially before he does it again.
3. Paul Richardson, WR SEA – Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past few days, you’re well aware Seattle shipped receiver and apparent head-case Percy Harvin to the Jets, leaving a hole in the lineup. Rookie Richardson, who previously hadn’t played more than 10 snaps in a game, was on the field for 43 of the Seahawks’ 73 plays (58.9%) on Sunday. Though this is likely due, at least in part, to a 21-3 deficit, it was nonetheless encouraging to see. His return (4-33-0) was modest, but it’s reasonable to expect him to continue to grow as the season moves on.
Sell High
1. Jermaine Gresham, TE CIN – With receivers AJ Green and Marvin Jones, as well as tight end Tyler Eifert all out, Gresham has been force-fed a steady diet of targets over the past two weeks. And while he’s corralled a high percentage of them (16 of 19), they’ve all been underneath, highlighting both a lack of a downfield presence and the ability to make guys miss. To that point, even with the efficiency noted above, his 6.11 yards-per-target average over that period leaves much to be desired. Green is expected back next week and Eifert should follow in early November – try to cash out on Gresham before then.
2. Doug Baldwin, WR SEA – Though it’s fair to wonder why I’d promote Richardson yet suggest selling Baldwin, my reasoning is simple – they’re players likely heading in opposite directions. Baldwin received season highs in every relevant statistical category on Sunday, including targets (11), receptions (seven), yards (12) and touchdowns (one). All told, each of those figures represent 30.6%, 30.4%, 39.7% and 100% of his yearly totals, respectively. Percy Harvin’s absence wasn’t the reason Baldwin went off, as Harvin was only a part-time player anyhow – I’d attempt to convince a willing trade partner otherwise.
3. Matt Forte, RB CHI – Don’t get me wrong – if you’re contending I can’t see much of a reason to part with the Chicago running back. But if you reside on the other side of the fence I’d make haste to cash out while the getting is good. Make no mistake, Forte is a great player, but he’s also a 29-year old ball carrier with over 2,000 career touches to his name, and as such it’s not shocking to see his rushing efficiency stand at just 4.0 YPC. As our own Ryan McDowell pointed out in this week’s DLF Newsletter, Forte has made his hay in the passing game, with 62 targets already on the season. Perhaps he’ll keep up the pace, but I’d wager it’s likelier to see receivers Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and tight end Martellus Bennett become more involved – should that happen, Forte’s production and value could both decline.
Buy High
1. Tre Mason, RB STL – In addition to one being the loneliest number, it was also the total amount of snaps played by former starter Zac Stacy on Sunday. In his place was the rookie Mason, who built off of his impressive debut in week six to lead the team with 85 yards on 18 carries against a stout Seattle defense. Though he’ll cede work to passing-game back Benny Cunningham, Mason has passed the eye test as the Rams’ most explosive ball carrier. He was likely a second-round pick in your rookie draft this off-season, but if he keeps up this pace that could go down as an error in hindsight.
2. Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN – Much like with Mason above, this is why pencils have erasers. McKinnon has always been a physical freak, but had yet to learn the finer points of the position due to a switch from his collegiate quarterback position. Having done enough to unseat the “purple sloth” Matt Asiata, McKinnon has erased any doubt as to who should remain the backfield starter. Following his second 100-yard effort of the season, the Vikings rookie is now locked and loaded as a PPR RB2 with a sizable amount of room to grow.
3. Odell Beckham, WR NYG – When I touched upon Beckham in a recent Mailbag, I argued both his size and hamstring injury were being unfairly held against him. Three games and three touchdowns later and we’re all getting a glimpse of exactly what the rookie can do. Settling in as a big part of the Giants’ game plans in the wake of the Victor Cruz injury, I expect OBJ to continue to grow, ultimately passing the ordinary Rueben Randle as quarterback Eli Manning’s target of choice by the end of the year. The New York brass made him the #12 pick of the draft for a reason, and his value is likely to correlate to that fact more and more as the weeks pass us by.
Sell Low
1. Zac Stacy, RB STL – See Mason above. We should’ve seen the warning signs last year, when head coach Jeff Fisher seemingly cycled through ball carriers at will before settling in on the then-rookie Stacy. The volume was certainly nice, but the efficiency was lacking and Mason’s selection in the third round of the draft sparked debate as to where Stacy belonged in the dynasty hierarchy. After just six games it’s apparent that place is nowhere near a starting lineup and I’d have no problem selling for half of what he was worth just a few short weeks ago.
2. Jeremy Kerley, WR NYJ – I like Kerley as a player, in that I feel he’s always exceeded my personal expectations while miscast as a top offensive weapon – think along the lines of Atlanta’s Harry Douglas last season. But with the Harvin trade it’s fair to wonder if Kerley has fallen to a status as the team’s fourth passing option, behind Eric Decker, Jace Amaro and the recent acquisition. If your league is one where the roster spots are precious, you simply don’t have room to hang onto Kerley and hope he lands somewhere better come 2015.
3. Matt Asiata, RB MIN – The Zac Stacy to Jerick McKinnon’s Tre Mason, Asiata’s time as a fantasy contributor, while memorable, is likely at an end. Following a four-game stretch where he received no fewer than 15 touches in any individual contest, Asiata now has 10 touches total over the past two weeks. Leslie Frazier’s declaration of more involvement for the plodder was clearly nothing more than garden-variety coach-speak, as when the game was close Asiata didn’t receive a single touch in the fourth quarter. His only current worth is as a handcuff to McKinnon, the trade value of which is likely on par with a late-round pick, at best.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
[/am4show]
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Justin Jefferson Or A Bundle Of Draft Picks? - April 23, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Is Kendre Miller Valued Unfairly? - April 17, 2024
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 9, 2024
