Pumping the Brakes
“My name is Eric Olinger… and I have a problem.”
For the true die hard dynasty league player, there truly is no off-season. It’s a sickness. There honestly isn’t anything going on at the end of March, other than collegiate pro days, to warrant the majority of fantasy football players’ time.
I said the majority.
For us degenerates, we constantly look at league rosters, offer trades and try to find any way possible to get an edge. Unfortunately, unless you’re in a league with other addicts, your offers expire or fall on deaf ears and there really isn’t anything more frustrating than that. 24 hours a day, seven days a week, you can get on Twitter and find people just like you. It’s like Alcoholics Anonymous. There you will find people giving reasons why “Player X” is primed for a breakout or why “Player Y” is guaranteed to bust. They usually have a biased stat or even better a metric they created to back up their reasoning. Why not? You can be a prophet in March and nobody is going to remember whether you were right or wrong… except for the people who bought into your crusade.
The most important variables you have to take into account are how deep of a sleeper is being discussed, how many players at that position are rostered in your league, and how long are you willing to wait for this investment to pay off? Let’s take a look at some players who are currently being hyped on Twitter as the next “can’t miss” dynasty prospect.
Justin Hunter, WR TEN
There is a whole lot of hype surrounding a guy coming off an injury plagued rookie season with 18 receptions for 354 yards and four touchdowns. The majority of his production came in two games near the end of the season. He had a six catch, 109 yard and one touchdown game versus the hapless Raiders and a four catch, 114 yard and one touchdown game versus the Denver Broncos. He was suspended the following game for violating team rules, went catchless in week 16 and then hurt his shoulder in week 17. The shoulder injury was the final straw in a rookie season which he also dealt with a finger issue and a concussion. Hunter has a history of being lazy on the field and was ridden into the ground by the Tennessee coaching staff last pre-season for lackadaisical practice habits. The guy has unreal talent and speed, he represented the USA at the 2010 IAAF World Junior Championships. If he can commit himself and focus on football he without a doubt has the potential to be everything the Titans hoped for when they selected him 34th overall in last year’s draft.
Hunter comes in at the WR28 in our DLF rankings with a high of 16 and a low of 36 so opinions vary among the rankers. In Ryan McDowell’s March Dynasty mock drafts he was selected on average as the WR36, between Tavon Austin and Roddy White. That’s a pretty fair assessment right now and these are the important tools to look at when going after him in trade negotiations. Even though he’s being drafted as a WR3 he’s going to be a frustrating weekly play and more than likely live in the low WR4 range for 2014 unless Jake Locker or a rookie quarterback can put it all together under coach Ken Whisenhunt.
Khiry Robinson, RB NOS
Full disclosure, I’m not a Khiry Robinson fan. He’s a nice story. An undrafted free agent from a division II school, he was able to crack the 53 man roster of one of the league’s best teams. One of the coolest things about him is he played with Cam Newton at Blinn College on the 2009 NJCAA national championship team.
He finished his rookie season with 54 carries, 224 yards, a 4.1 ypc average and one touchdown in a very crowded backfield. He did not record a catch. The excitement around Robinson largely centered on the assumption Pierre Thomas would move on and he would inherit the early down work. Further fanning the flames was word from Coach Payton the Saints would shift to a slightly more balanced attack this season in an effort to help the defense. I don’t buy that for one second. A team with Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, and Marques Colston isn’t going to all the sudden turn into the 49ers or the Seahawks. Making matters worse was Pierre Thomas re-signing in New Orleans and Darren Sproles being traded to the Philadelphia Eagles. Like I mentioned before, Robinson failed to record a catch last season. With Thomas and Mark Ingram back for 2014, Robinson is going to struggle to find consistent playing time anytime soon. Pierre Thomas and pre-season darling Travaris Cadet will most likely be the main benefactors of Sproles’ trade to the Eagles.
Robinson is currently ranked 43rd on average among DLF rankers, I have him ranked 49th. March ADP had him coming off the board as the RB46 in the 13th round range. In one mock he was selected in the 10th round, 110th overall, too rich for my blood. Robinson has a spot on dynasty rosters but not higher than a RB5 with tightly crossed fingers.
Latavius Murray, RB OAK
I’m a huge Latavius Murray fan and I was actually excited when Darren McFadden re-signed with the Raiders. If all Murray had to do was wait for Mr. Glass to break again, he would be in fantasy lineups by week four! He is a beast of a man at 6’2”, 230 pounds with legit 4.38 wheels. After having his ankle scoped in August, the Raiders placed him on injured reserve. His rookie season was over before it ever got started. Now with momentum on his side, things were looking way up for the promising second year player.
Unfortunately, his breakout might have to wait a little longer because the Raiders signed Maurice Jones-Drew to backup McFadden. Jones-Drew is a shell of his former self but supposedly has a chip on his shoulder. I expect McFadden and MJD to form a one-two punch for the Raiders until one of them or both get hurt. I still have very little doubt Murray will find his way onto the field at some point this season but it’s very hard to predict.
He currently has an average ranking of RB40 at DLF, I have him as my RB34. Look for this number to drop a little now Jones-Drew is onboard, but I personally will not be lowering my ranking based on his presence. His March ADP came in as the RB37, ranging from round nine to round 11. I expect this to drop into the round 12 to 13 range next month.
Sometimes it’s all about perspective. When a person is viewed as a breakout candidate or a dynasty “buy” it doesn’t necessarily mean we expect them to be a top 10 player at the position right away so don’t overpay for these types of players. Sometimes you need to pump the brakes and figure out where he belongs in the grand scheme of things.
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Seven - October 24, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Six - October 16, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Five - October 10, 2018
