Dynasty Debate: Torrey Smith vs. Mike Wallace

In this edition of our ADP debates, Eric Hardter and I tackle two young wide receivers with speed to spare and a plethora of opportunities for the 2013 season.  Mike Wallace (ADP 51.5) will be represented by Eric and I’ll be arguing for Torrey Smith (ADP 52.7).  Eric chose the players for this one and I wanted to compliment him on a great selection.  The similarity in ADP is the cherry on top of a deep threat sundae – here’s hoping for a delicious debate.

Eric’s Argument for Mike Wallace

Before I let Mr. Rockwell “Mark” his territory on Torrey Smith, there are a few things I’d like to mention about the Ravens’ rising third year receiver.  Though Smith took a nice step forward in his Sophomore season (finishing as the PPR WR28), he also carries with him several red flags.  First and foremost, consistency still eludes him.  “Good Torrey,” the benevolent half of his on-field split personality, only appeared in five of the Ravens’ fifteen games in 2012 (excluding the meaningless week 17 tilt with the Bengals).  These are the only games where Smith exceeded 60 receiving yards, and also saw the receiver collect six of his eight touchdowns.  Meanwhile, “Bad Torrey,” the Mr. Hyde to his Dr. Jekyll, presided over the remaining ten games, where Smith failed to record more than 57 yards in any of them.

Part of this can be explained by the fact that when laughably-salaried quarterback Joe Flacco looks in the former Maryland Terrapin’s direction, the ball is more likely to wind up on the turf than in the receiver’s hands.  Last year, Smith secured an astonishingly low 44.5%of his 110 targets, and his career mark of 48.2% is only slightly better.  Even if the departure of fellow receiver Anquan Boldin results in more targets, will Smith actually catch them?  Also, as a consequence of the Boldin trade, there now exists a leadership vacuum in Baltimore’s receiving corps, thrusting Smith into the role of veteran.  Is he ready to handle being “the guy” on offense?  I’m not convinced he is, and there are just too many question marks for me to grab him at his current ADP.

Mike Wallace, on the other hand, has already proven he can function as his team’s top receiving threat.  Over the past three years, Wallace averaged 65 receptions, 1,095 receiving yards and 8.7 touchdowns, despite quarterback Ben Roethlisberger missing eight games over that time frame. Combing through the statistics, you’d have to go back to 2009 to find a season where Wallace didn’t lead the Steelers in receiving.  Wallace has also shown the ability to post fantasy WR1 numbers, recording back-to-back finishes as the PPR WR9 in 2010 and 2011, which were only his second and third seasons in the league.  Even in a down year in 2012, Wallace still finished as the WR23 – good enough to function as a WR2 in most league formats.

The comparative advantages don’t end there.

Filed under the “anything you can do, I can do better” category, Wallace displays unparalleled deep speed.  In fact, despite Smith’s reputation as a burner at 4.33 seconds, Wallace’s 40-yard dash time is actually a full tenth of a second faster than that of his Baltimore counterpart. Continuing this trend, Wallace is also a much more efficient receiver than Smith. Though they share the exact same 17.2 yards per catch statistic, Wallace has secured 58.2% of his career targets, which represents a 10.0% increase (a 20.7% relative increase) over Smith’s numbers.

To me, Wallace’s relatively depressed value stemmed from concerns over where he’d wind up.  In my opinion, the Miami Dolphins represent arguably the best possible destination. Wallace’s sizable contract (five years for $60 million, with $27 million guaranteed) ensures the Dolphins anticipate him functioning as the team’s top wideout.  Also, in addition to alleviating potential double coverage, the subsequent contracts bestowed upon receivers Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson, as well as tight end Dustin Keller, bolster the case for Miami attempting to transition into a dynamic passing offense.

As it turns out, despite the presence of a rookie quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, as well as arguably the league’s worst collection of receivers, Coach Joe Philbin still had the Dolphins throw on 53.4% of the team’s offensive plays in 2012.  With an improved group of pass catchers, I expect that number to drastically increase.  Finally, by virtue of switching divisions, Wallace stands to face softer coverage for six games every year.  In 2012, his new foes in the AFC East (the Patriots, Jets and Bills) surrendered 72 passing touchdowns (1.5 per game) in addition to an average opposing quarterback rating of 83.2.  Conversely, his former opponents in the AFC North (the Ravens, Bengals and Browns) allowed only 58 touchdowns (1.2 per game) as well as a slightly lower opposing quarterback rating of 82.6. Considering the totality of the facts above, if you’re choosing between these two receivers to give you “60 minutes” of exceptional fantasy output, the choice is Mike Wallace.

Mark’s Argument for Torrey Smith

Mike Wallace? Meh.  Speed doesn’t make you great.  The departure of Bruce Arians was the beginning of the end of the “Mike Wallace is a Stud” notion.  It was Arians’ downfield system that benefited Andrew Luck and made T.Y. Hilton look like a legitimate primary target.  Actually, Hilton outperformed Wallace as a rookie under Arians – Wallace posted 756 yards on 39 receptions as a rookie while Hilton racked up 861 yards on 50 catches.  That doesn’t make either player bad, but the system Wallace played in was a perfect fit for his skill set and likely resulted in career seasons early on.

For further evidence, just investigate his production from last year.  He averaged just 55.7 yards per game in 2012 and had only five games where he had at least ten fantasy points in standard scoring leagues.  Failing to reach 1,000 yards or double digit scores might be all it takes to be the recipient of a $60 million contract, but it most certainly won’t win you any fantasy championships. He also graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #91 ranked receiver in 2012, compared to Smith who graded out as the #45 receiver.

Now he moves on to the Dolphins with a young and promising quarterback sure to have some growing pains.  Wallace is a solid WR2 option, but I have trouble buying him as anything more than that.  Keep in mind, the Steelers have tremendous scouting skills and have made astute judgments regarding their own players.  Over the years they’ve released players like Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes rather than overpay for less than elite talent.  Granted Pittsburgh has mammoth cap issues, but their refusal to pay Wallace prime money tells me he isn’t a prime talent.

While relying on Smith as a WR1 would not be recommended for 2013, he undoubtedly has the skills to develop into one.  Much like Wallace, Smith’s biggest drawback has been a lack of consistency.  He had seven weeks of over ten points in standard scoring leagues, including a monster six catch, 127 yard, two touchdown performance against the Patriots in week three.  He also had six games where he scored less than five points.

Here’s where he races past Wallace.

Smith has a premium opportunity to become a reliable option.  While Wallace is going to a team with an excellent possession receiver in Brian Hartline, Smith is now his team’s best receiver for any type of route.  The departure of Boldin leaves a massive whole in the Ravens offense to the tune of 65 catches and nearly 1,000 yards.  A myriad of fantasy experts have already deemed tight end Dennis Pitta the likely beneficiary of Bolden’s exit, but Smith will likely be asked to pick up the slack as well.

He’s certainly capable of stepping in.  Last season, 35 percent of his receiving yards came on passes within ten yards of the line of scrimmage.  On those plays, he caught 64 percent of his 42 targets.  Elite (insert sarcasm font) quarterback Joe Flacco, might not be great at placing the on deep throws, but he can efficiently get him the ball on the shallow and intermediate routes.  This is where most of Smith’s new targets will come from.

You basically have two explosive wide receivers. One of them is going to a team with another 1,000 yard receiver (Brian Hartline) and an inexperienced quarterback.  The other is going to be on a team without other receiving threats aside from a tight end and running back with a quarterback coming off a super bowl win.  Their talent, statistics and skill sets are so similar that for me Smith’s favorable situation tips the skills in his favor.

Conclusion

As per the norm, I wrote my part before reading my counterparts argument, but Eric really packed a punch in his section.  To sum it up, Eric expects Wallace to step in as a clear cut WR1 in Miami and produce like he did under Bruce Arians in Pittsburgh thanks to superior talent and speed.  Wallace will need to benefit from Hartline’s presence rather than lose targets to him.  I’m counting on Smith improving his consistency and improving his efficiency by running more short and medium routes.  It’s very possible both of these players will finish in the top 20, but it’s also possible both finish in the mid-to-late twenties among wide receivers.

If you could pick one, who would you pick?

Follow Mark (@Mark_Rockwell85) and Eric (@EDH_27) on Twitter.

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