Breakout Candidates: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
We continue our exploration into potential breakout candidates by looking at a few wide receivers and a couple of tight ends with a chance to become household names. As I mentioned in the article on running backs, I’m not looking for extremely deep sleepers with slim chances to ever be relevant. The goal is to find those players who have been benchwarmers in their careers, but now have a chance to provide starter value soon. In other words, these are players whose value could dramatically outweigh their current cost as early as next season.
Wide Receivers
Vincent Brown, WR SD
Who is he?
Brown was the San Diego Chargers’ 82nd pick in the 2011 draft out of San Diego State. Seeing limited playing time in his rookie year, he totaled 19 catches for 329 yards and two touchdowns. He was viewed as a popular sleeper heading into the year until a preseason ankle fracture dashed any hopes for a breakout year.
What’s standing in his way?
A rapidly declining Philip Rivers could hamper the passing game in San Diego. While he has always had an awkward throwing motion, this is the first season he frequently floated passes and was badly under throwing deep passes on a routinely. Second, the presence of Danario Alexander could limit Brown’s target total. Alexander’s knees are perhaps the shakiest in the NFL, but when he is healthy, there is no denying his talent.
Why could he have a breakout season?
He’s a very talented player on a team without a lot of wide receiver depth. He tallied ten touchdowns and over 1,300 yards as a senior in college. He displayed electric play making ability in the preseason prior to breaking his ankle. There’s hope that a new coaching staff in San Diego will rejuvenate Philip Rivers. If healthy, Brown is immediately the one of the most dangerous offensive weapons on the roster.
Greg Little, WR CLE
Who is he?
Drafted in the first round of most dynasty league rookie drafts in 2011, Greg Little has been a colossal disappointment. He was picked by the Browns ahead of the aforementioned Vincent Brown thanks to his collegiate display of impressive open field play making ability and ideal build, as he stands 6’2’ and weighing 231 pounds. He was selected as a raw talent, but he’s yet to flash any signs of development.
What’s standing in his way?
Little has dropped 23 passes in two seasons – that puts him behind only Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker and Victor Cruz for the most drops over the last two years, despite seeing far fewer targets. Also, rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden struggled mightily in his debut season, completing just 57% of his passes with a 14/17 touchdown to interception ratio. Selected in the second round of the 2012 supplemental draft, rookie Josh Gordon has overtaken Little as the primary receiver in Cleveland. It’s fair to question if Little will have a place in an offense engineered by Norv Turner that will likely features tight ends and the power running game.
Why could he have a breakout season?
After dropping six passes in the first five games this year, he only dropped three more the remainder of the season. Combined over the previous two seasons, 20 of his 23 drops occurred in the first 21 games with only three in the remaining 11. Granted those numbers are far from exhilarating for disenfranchised owners, they do indicate some improvement in his focus. He also struggled to make plays thought the first season and a half of his career. However, over the final four games this seaso,n he started making plays by gaining between five and ten yards after the catch in all but one game. The emergence of Gordon is a double edged sword as he will most likely see the majority of Weeden’s targets, but will also draw opposing defenses’ top corner. Lastly, the addition of Rob Chudzinski as head coach and Norv Turner as offensive coordinator should result in progress in the passing game whether or not Weeden is the starter. Whether or not Little benefits from those coaching changes or not is difficult to project, but they certainly can’t hurt.
Joe Morgan, WR NO
Who is he?
Joe Morgan is a second year man signed as an undrafted free agent by the Saints in 2011. His rookie season was cut short by a season ending knee injury early in the season. Playing second fiddle to Devery Henderson this season, he made a name for himself as one of the league’s most dangerous deep threats. He corralled just ten catches all year on a measly 19 targets, but turned those chances into 379 and three touchdowns.
What’s standing in his way?
Despite having the edge heading into next year, there is no guarantee he will have the WR3 role entirely to himself. The Saints will get Nick Toon back following a rookie year that ended prematurely due to a foot injury. Even if he does earn a prominent role on the offense he will still be no better than the third or forth option in the passing game behind tight end Jimmy Graham and wide receivers Marques Colston and Lance Moore.
Why could he have a breakout season?
While he will still have Marques Colston and Lance Moore ahead of him in the wide receiver pecking order, Devery Henderson is an unrestricted free agent heading into the off-season. Fortunately, the Saints run a lot of three receiver sets. Henderson played 720 snaps this season compared to just 390 for Morgan. Also, this camp will be the first that he and Drew Brees will have a full summer to develop chemistry together. Even the third wide receiver has value in an offense that has seen its quarterback throw for over 5,000 yards in five straight seasons. Just don’t say we never told you.
Tight Ends
Rob Housler, TE ARI
Who is he?
Rob Housler was a third round pick out of Florida Atlantic in the 2011 draft. He stands at 6’5” and has good speed and a quick release making him an ideal pass catching tight end. Now all he needs is a quarterback who can throw passes. He has struggled as a run blocker, but is a capable in pass protection. He caught 69% of his passes and considering the junior varsity quarterbacks throwing him the ball that is truly remarkable.
Why could he have a breakout season?
Opportunity is knocking for him. He is clearly the most talented tight end in Arizona. New Cardinals GM Steve Keim believes Housler creates mismatches all over the field and is a star in the making. The Colts’ duo of rookie tight ends, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, combined for almost 900 yards and five touchdowns in 2012 playing under newly minted Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians. Arians won’t have Andrew Luck to lead the offense, but it’s a given they’ll bring in more competition hopefully leading to better quarterback play in the desert next year. It can’t be worse, right?
What’s standing in his way?
I played high school basketball for a tiny private school on a team with seven total players. Three of our players were actually middle school students, but we needed them to fill the roster. They couldn’t have been more than five feet tall. They tried hard, but they didn’t belong on the court with the six and a half footers we were playing against most of the time. That is basically how I feel about Ryan Lindley, Kevin Kolb and John Skelton. Not one single player on the Cardinals’ roster is a safe bet unless the quarterback play improves.
Jordan Cameron, TE CLE
Who is he?
Selected by the Cleveland Browns in the fourth round of the 2011 draft, Jordan Cameron is another tight end of the athletic, former basketball player mold. While he was originally picked as a developmental player and buried on the depth chart behind Benjamin Watson and Evan Moore, he is likely to find himself in a prominent role next season. He stands six feet five inches tall and weighs 250 pounds while possessing adequate athletic ability.
What’s standing in his way?
As our own Tim Stafford noted in his January 21st mailbag responses, there are two big questions facing Cameron. First and foremost, will the Browns bring in competition via trade or the draft? The upcoming draft class has some intriguing options at the TE position including Zach Ertz (Stanford) and Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame). Secondly, even if truly elite options are not brought in, can the quarterback play sustain a fantasy relevant tight end? Cleveland’s passing game has some good things going for it with the new coaching staff and the emergence of Josh Gordon. However, Trent Richardson is still going to be the premier option moving forward.
Why could he have a breakout season?
Several signs point towards a breakout season in 2013. First, Evan Moore is no longer on the roster after being signed by Seattle and eventually ending up a reserve in Philadelphia. This season’s starter, Benjamin Watson, will be an unrestricted free agent heading into the off-season and is unlikely to be back. Interestingly, new head coach Rob Chudzinski started his NFL coaching career as a tight ends coach in Cleveland before spending several years in the same role coaching Antonio Gates in San Diego. In addition to his extensive tight end coaching history, he has done well getting Cam Newton to look Greg Olsen’s way more in Carolina. Lastly, new offensive coordinator Norv Turner has proven mediocre as a Head Coach, but has led several years of explosive vertical offenses throughout the course of his career. Exciting physical ability, improved coaching and the potential growth of Weeden create a potential perfect storm for a breakthrough season, but watch the NFL draft closely.
I didn’t list every name that comes to mind, but the ones I felt had the best chance or had the best potential production to current cost ratio. Who are you rooting for to break out next season?
