As we said with our dynasty “buy list,” this is not the time to sit around and bask in the glory of your dynasty league championship season or pout about your failures. This is the time to be actively looking for ways to improve your team. A true dynasty league team owner knows there is no offseason and needs to be treating this time of year with the same reckless abandon as the regular season, perhaps with even more vigor.
Some of the best trades you’ll make in a dynasty league can happen right now. With the draft and free agency approaching, many existing players are going to see their values change for the worse. In addition, there are always players who outperform expectations and have those career seasons. The trick is trying to stay ahed of the curve and sell these players while their value is the highest.
Let’s set some parameters for this list.
This is not a list of players who are going to be terrible next season. In fact, many players on this list are going to have some good seasons. However, if you’re looking for a group of players whose value is being skewed higher than it should in many leagues out there, keep reading.
With this list, we’re not saying you need to do everything you can to sell for pennies on the dollar, but each of these players is dealing with a set of circumstances not unlike those we’ve seen in the past that have historically left many owners overvaluing players just like them. Every league is different, but it’s time to get some people kicking the tires on these guys.
With that being said, let’s take a look at these potential sell candidates.
Reggie Bush, RB MIA
Bush was fantastic this season, as he ran for a career high 1,086 yards with an equally impressive 5.0 yards per carry. When you add 43 catches, 296 receiving yards and seven total touchdowns, you had yourself a top 12 running back and possible steal of your dynasty league draft.
So, what’s the problem?
While this is the longest “flash” we’ve seen from Bush, he has a serious knack for disappointing owners. Trusting him to stay healthy and productive seems like a very big risk at this point. Daniel Thomas is still in the mix in Miami and they’re also going to have a new coaching regime in place. Will they believe in Bush the same way the Dolphins did this season?
When you look at his past history and add all the unknown variables, it’s just hard to see Bush repeating the same success he had this season. If you could get another running back in the class of say DeMarco Murray, Mark Ingram, Marshawn Lynch or Ahmad Bradshaw, it would likely be a good deal to consider.
Roy Helu, RB WAS
Helu played pretty well this season, averaging over four yards per carry and catching 49 passes. He showed some big play ability and did enough to send Ryan Torain to the waiver wire in both fantasy and reality.
Again, what’s the problem?
Owning Helu is a bit of a nightmare with Mike Shanahan at the helm. With the late season emergence of Evan Royster, Helu’s stranglehold on the feature back job is tenuous at best. Royster showed enough to at least give him a run in camp or even create a timeshare next season.
Even worse, it’s been reported that neither back is truly seen as a true #1 by the coaching regime in Washington. If that’s the case, we could see Helu’s value take a real nose dive. Imagine the aftermath if the Redskins were to draft a running back this season or add someone like Michael Bush, or worse, Arian Foster in free agency. You could say it’s all a moot point because the Shanahan era looks to be getting shorter by the day, but there would be no guarantees a new coach would employ a scheme conducive to Helu’s skills.
In short, I’d move Helu to a team who views him as a bona fide future featured back. He very well could be, but it’s a ton of risk to be holding on to.
Colt McCoy, QB CLE
McCoy was a huge disappointment after having a great preseason. It looks like the Browns are serious about looking elsewhere for a franchise quarterback, so getting something for McCoy now (even if it’s not much), seems like a good idea.
Mark Sanchez, QB NYJ
When Greg McElroy seems to be the only quarterback to stand up for what’s right, it’s not a good sign. Sanchez regressed badly this season and no longer looks to be the sure thing the Jets hoped he’d be.
Sanchez could bounce back and have a decent year, but it just doesn’t seem like he’s ever going to be anything more than a low-end QB2 in fantasy. If you could get a safer QB2 for him this offseason, it’s a good thing to look at.
Tim Tebow, QB DEN
Let’s just see how this playoff game against Pittsburgh goes this weekend. Rumors that Brady Quinn is warming up in the bullpen should scare his owners to death.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB BUF
Well, that contract thing didn’t work out so hot, did it?
Jermichael Finley, TE GB
This could easily be the most controversial name on this list, so let’s be very clear on this one. Finley is a freakish talent, but someone who ended up being a total afterthought in the Green Bay juggernaut offense this year. An ending line of 55/767/8 is very good for a tight end, but it was a disappointment to his owners. When you consider he didn’t have a single 100 yard game, had three of those touchdowns in one game and was plagued by drops, there’s some cause for minor concern.
Here’s the deal.
Finley showed enough this season to merit him being in the top five at the tight end position, but not enough to be in the class with Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. If you can add something with Finley to get one of those two tight ends, or even trade him to get someone like Vernon Davis, plus other commodities from an owner, it’s worth looking into.
Simply put, if you find someone who puts him in the class with Graham and Gronkowski, take advantage.
Darren McFadden, RB OAK
His ceiling is the best player in fantasy football. His floor is the worst. That makes it easy!
McFadden has shown the ability to break open games or break his foot on any given Sunday. It’s tough to envision a 16 game season from him right now. If you can get a safer top 10 running back with upside like Chris Johnson or Ryan Mathews, it’s worth considering.
Fred Jackson, RB BUF
The emergence of CJ Spiller, couple with Jackson’s injury is going to give the Bills pause when they consider giving him a new contract. Don’t sell him on the cheap, but the chances of him producing at the elite level like he was at the beginning of 2011 seems pretty slim.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB PIT
If Isaac Redman looks really good in the playoffs, it’s really bad for Mendenhall. Torn ACL aside, Mendenhall didn’t take the next step as many expected this year. If you have an owner who is fully convinced that Mendenhall will return to pre-injury form (or better), it’s worth exploring a deal.
Michael Turner, RB ATL
Turner’s production didn’t take the fall that many expected this season, but make no mistake, it’s coming.
Hakeem Nicks, WR NYG
Much like Finley, this is probably a little controversial. Having Nicks on this list has nothing to do with his talent or past production – he’s a stud. However, the emergence of Victor Cruz is going to make it very difficult for Nicks to be a top 5 fantasy producer in the future. If you can land a player who you believe CAN hit that top 5, it’s worth a look.
Mike Wallace of the Steelers is in a similar position with Antonio Brown coming on strong. Just be wary of overvaluing some of these players based on last year’s rankings. Brown and Cruz aren’t going away.
Roddy White, WR ATL
His 100/1,296/8 line makes him a top receiver in fantasy yet again. The drops aren’t that big of a concern considering the insane number of targets he gets.
What IS a concern is the emergence of Julio Jones. Matt Ryan is good enough to make two receivers very fantasy worthy, but is he good enough to make two of them fantasy elite?
Let’s just say that another 100 catch, 1,200 yard season would be pretty amazing. Even if he were to pull it off, let’s not forget that White will be 31 in November. I’d rather have someone like Larry Fitzgerald, even with the poor quarterback situation in Arizona at this point.
Nate Washington, WR TEN
That was a career season without Kenny Britt. With Locker at the helm next season, Britt coming back and the emergence of Jared Cook all contributing factors, it’s nearly impossible to see him match his production in 2011. Strike now while the iron is hot!
Jabar Gaffney, WR WAS
Career highs in all categories in his tenth season – don’t expect a repeat in his eleventh.
Santonio Holmes, WR NYJ
This is getting ugly in a hurry. It’s easy to see him getting “Keyshawned” if he doesn’t clean up his act. Who knows how this whole thing is going to play out, but I’d rather have about 20 other WRs than Holmes – especially with a regressing Mark Sanchez at the helm.
These are just a few of the names worth considering. Who are you looking at moving?
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what are your thoughts on trying to trade R.White for A.Johnson? I have white and am afraid of his production falling the next few years because of J.Jones. I love Johnson when he’s healthy, but it’s a big WHEN.
I’d take White because I consider both to be about even productivity-wise but White is extremely durable and consistent. Andre – not so much.
Johnson is only four months younger, so you’re not gaining much there. He’s a major injury risk, too. They’re pretty close, but I’d take White in a ppr and call it even in a non. If I was forced to pick one there, I’d take Roddy.
In the end, I’d target someone like Jennings or Fitz instead.
Evan Royster is not a threat to Helu’s job.
As a Penn State fan, embarrassed as I am to admit that now, I had the opportunity to watch Royster for his last couple seasons. He is not a special talent. With that said I don’t see Helu as a three down back long term. More of a 3rd down specialist/change of pace guy. I could very well be wrong but if I had Helu I’d be selling but only for someone I trust to have more upside long term.
The point I was attempting to make is that it’s not Helu’s job…it’s nobody’s. I agree that Royster isn’t special. I just think his success in the same system does take some shine off Helu. Bottom line is I’d never trust anyone at RB with Shanahan.
I think i’m going to look to move Stevie Johnson. I have vincent jackson (who i also might consider moving), Antonio Brown, Demaryus Thomas, Denarius Moore, Mike Williams.
What do you think of RB Ryan Williams for next season? He was my first pick this past year… any chance he is a starting option in 2012?
You could certainly look to move him, but I think his value is pretty flat right now. You’re likely not going to get great value and could even be selling low at the moment.
DeSean Jackson was putrid and seemed only to give effort once his Eagles were eliminated.
Absolutely, but Jackson is the type of player who doesn’t belong on this list. I think you’re going to be hard pressed to find someone who places a high value on him at this point. Much like Stevie Johnson, you’re risking a “sell low” proposition with him.
It seems like folks are either in or out on Reggie Bush.
I’m in. Traded 2012 2nd and 3rd for him in September. I thought a change of scenery for him would be all he needed and I’m hoping that I’m right. He a dynamic producer that needed a chance to be the guy. Either he or the Dolphins figured out in the second half of the season.
Alright I was thinking of shopping these players:
Percy Harvin – finished as a top 10 WR, very young, but he has some serious injury concerns.
Run DMC – you already went into depth about his issues, but im struggling with parting with him because his upside is insane.
Marshawn Lynch – Will he repeat? I have my doubts.
Matt Forte – Injury concerns, and when he’s healthy he is what Ray Rice was in 2010 (Yards by the bunches but no TD’s).
Harvin – the headaches have always bothered me. I feel like he’s one hit away at times. If you could get even top 10 value, I’d do it.
DMC – Yep.
Lynch – A big candidate for dropoff if he gets his money. It’s tough to say, though. He was quite a warrior this year.
Forte – I’d hold there.