The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1: Already pulled the trigger, what do you think?  Gave: Percy Harvin ($1.55,1), Daniel Thomas (cheap,2), Jordan Shipley (RFA), 2013 1.02/2014 2^nd for Doug Martin ($2,4) and Jacoby Ford (cheap,1).  – Jonathan in Kuala Lumpur

Note: These are the contracts at the start of next season.

You didn’t mention your salary cap, but I’m assuming these are very inexpensive contracts on both Harvin and Martin.  And that the 1.02 will come with an equally favorable price/length.

Assuming the guy taking on Harvin will be able to use his RFA tag (or franchise tag if you have one in this league) before the start of 2014, I think this is a pretty balanced deal.  Jordan Shipley, Daniel Thomas and Jacoby Ford are all of value in a 32-team league.  But the deal hinges on Harvin/picks for Martin.  Plus, the other owner’s ability to keep Harvin beyond 2013.

You’re certainly getting what appears right now to be the most valuable player, but I think the other team has done a nice job of buying low on Harvin.  Harvin’s year has been rather disappointing solely because of injury.  Before he was hurt, Harvin was a fantasy difference maker.  I fully expect him to return to form when healthy.  Harvin will be in my top-5 WRs for 2013 start-ups.

Depending on team construction and how one values the 1.02, I can see either side of this deal.  I’d rather get your side because locking in a cheap RB is a great foundation in SC leagues.  However, it’s quite likely that the 1.02 will rise in value at draft time and become a nice bargaining chip for the other owner.

2: What is the value of Chris Ivory as it stands today?  I was offered a pick that would 1.07-1.09.  I turned it down.  My thinking is there is 0% chance he is back with NO.  If he were to start on ATL, GB, Pitt or NYJ he is much more valuable.  Do you see him getting an opportunity next year?  Is my evaluation way off? – Ryan in MN

First off, I’m not sure why you think there is zero chance Chris Ivory’s back in New Orleans.  He’s an RFA next year and therefore subject to the tender process.  Almost no players who get tendered change teams.  So I suppose you’re saying you expect the Saints to let him walk.  Maybe/maybe not.  They surprised me this year when they carried five active running backs.  Plus, NFL teams seem to be stockpiling cheap running backs more than ever.  Look at teams like Carolina and Oakland.  I don’t think you can assume he’s gone.  He might be, but you need to factor in the risk that you’re wrong about this.

From time to time, RBs change teams and become much more valuable – Michael Turner is an obvious example.  Other recent ones are Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush and Marshawn Lynch.  The one thing they all have in common is we knew for certain they were super gifted athletes.  The only thing holding them back was the system or competition for touches.  When given the chance and a change of scenery, things popped.  While I like what I see from Ivory, I don’t think he’s on par with that group.  My bet would be that all of the teams you mention would use him as a committee back and he’d get 50% of the touches at very best.

I don’t think there’s a clear cut answer to this one.  I’d probably have taken the pick because I think there are a lot of unknowns around Ivory: will he change teams, if so to where and then how would he be used.  I suppose you could argue all those same unknowns exist around the pick.  You’d be right about that.  What I will say is that the best moves I’ve made in dynasty have been ones where I saw something in a player that I liked and I put my money where my mouth was.  So good luck and I hope Ivory is a starter for you next year.

3.) Took over an orphan rebuild where my best RB is Wells.  I won two games and have the 1.01.  I’ve been offered Chris Givens/3.05 for Cutler.  I want to take it as I plan to use the 1.01 on the best quarterback available.  Thoughts? – Brad in Columbus, OH

I’m going to assume this is the STL Chris Givens.  There are actually two WRs in the NFL named Chris Givens.  Strange, I know.  But not as strange as the confusion caused by Jordan Cameron and Cameron Jordan.  But I digress.

I think the deal’s fine if you like it.  In a 12-team league, Jay Cutler is at best a QB2/committee guy.  While only missing one game, he’s still mired in the mid-20s in quarterback scoring for this season.  I’m not sure why we’d expect that to change dramatically going forward.  Cutler continues to be overvalued by many simply because they have some vague recollection of 2008 when he put up monster numbers (in 2008 terms).  Cutler is kind of worthless in a rebuild.  Givens at least gives you hope.

You mention in your note that you also think by the time your team is ready to contend, Cutler will be on his last legs.  That part I don’t agree with.  I took over a team two years ago where my best running back was LaDainian Tomlinson.  Yeah, that was pretty bad.  I assumed it would take half a decade to rebuild, but it really hasn’t.  My team isn’t a legit contender, but it’s teetering around .500 these days.  Still a work in progress.  You may find that your rebuild goes more quickly than you expect.  However, I’m fine to dump Cutler for the reasons above.

Finally, you say that you intend to take the best available quarterack with the 1.01.  If that’s truly your plan, I’d strongly recommend shopping the 1.01 for an existing quarterback (do so at draft time).  It’s generally quite bad to target a specific position in rookie drafts.  You’re best served to rank your players – either in tiers or in order – and then take the best player available when you are on the clock.  If we were talking about Andrew Luck, I’d say fine.  You can take him over Trent Richardson if you want, whatever.  But there isn’t an Andrew Luck in the 2013 class.  It’s extremely likely in my opinion that the best dynasty player in the draft will be a WR.  If you’re dead set against taking a WR, trading the pick is the wise move.

4: What is Ryan Broyles now worth in terms of a 2013 first?  – Jason in Oregon

He’s worth a lot to me.  And I say that without knowing if your league is PPR or not.

Personally, I’d give any pick after about 1.06 for Ryan Broyles.  I would have gone a high as the 1.04 before the injury this Sunday.  Very sad.  But I still think this is his job when healthy.  He knows the rehab process and the risk of re-injury is fairly low.  He should come at a discount now given the risk and timeline.

I think Broyles might be better than the rookie you will get with the 1.03 pick, but those top selections always carry extra value.  Dynasty owners tend to think of the top-3 rookie picks as a special class of picks and pay a premium.  My guess is that at draft time you’d get more in trade for a top-3 pick than Broyles.  Certainly given the injury.

Broyles integrated himself in to the offense nicely and Titus Young has gift wrapped the starter position for him.  Obviously his upside is capped by Megatron, but remember the days of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin?  That’s what I can envision here.  Megatron putting up big numbers off of amazing plays and touchdowns, while Broyles quietly is in the top-5 in the league in receptions and yards.

As a side note, I’d be very concerned at this point if I owned Titus Young.  I think he’s exposed himself to the possibility of being the whipping boy for all of Detroit’s behavior issues.  I doubt he has much trade value so I’m not sure what you can do if you own him.  But I wouldn’t go in to 2013 assuming he’s a reliable WR3, that’s for sure.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.