2012 Early Mock Draft
Editor’s Note: This analysis is the first contribution by Member Corner Author, Tim Stafford (tstafford).
For those who have been DLF readers for a while, you hopefully purchased and enjoyed the 2011 Dynasty Essentials Guide. The DEG included a mock start-up draft and we thought it was time to get the band back together and conduct an Early Rookie Mock. We did a 12-team (1QB), two round, non-IDP draft taking best player available (BPA) independent of any team need considerations.
Obviously much will change as a result of the pre-draft process (Combine and pro-days) and the actual NFL draft. But a well-done mock like this tends to be fairly accurate in predicting the tiers of players in actual rookie drafts. This can help owners assess trade values for 2012 rookie picks, get a sense of the range of players that should be available to them in their spring drafts, and it’s just fun to read. I know we had fun doing it.
ROUND ONE:
1. dlf_eric – Trent Richardson, RB ALA
Eric’s Comments: “His combination of speed and physicality is impressive and should translate well at the next level. He doesn’t have many holes in his game, which makes him a safe number one overall. He could make a fantasy impact from day one depending on his landing spot.”
Tim’s Analysis: This is a no-brainer pick. Unless you are in a 2QB league, you can write it in with ink at this point that “T.Rich” will be on your team. There is nothing that could happen, except an injury that would change my opinion on this one. Don’t outthink yourself. Pick him.
2. tstafford – Justin Blackmon, WR OSU
Tim’s Comments: “Lacks the elite speed of Julio Jones and God given talents of AJ Green, but he is the total package. Runs the entire route tree and knows how to use his body to get separation. Not a burner, but fast enough to make people miss. Doesn’t shy away from contact and has an exemplary work ethic. Has the will to win. Even though everyone who played OSU knew what was coming, very few could stop him. If you’re looking to kill some time see the youtube video from 2010 where he torches the Giants 1st round CB Prince Amukamara early and often.”
Tim’s Analysis: The 1.02 is a significant value tier drop from the 1.01. I think it would be reasonable to take Blackmon or Luck here. And the gamblers among us might be tempted to reach for RGIII. None of the RBs grade-out to be in contention for me in leagues where I own the 1.02 (even on teams with dire RB needs).
Trade Advisory: I think this pick is a strong candidate for dynasty owners to trade down. If your team has diverse needs (and it may if you “earned” the 1.02), I’d test the market for dropping to the 1.03 or 1.04 and picking up a late first or early second. You may get and owner who absolutely has to have Blackmon.
3. BubbaBurst – Andrew Luck, QB STAN
BB’s Comments: “Best QB prospect in a long time. My guess is as we get closer to the draft a RB will emerge as a possibility in this pick, but the trend in FF these days seems to be heavily skewed towards QBs and he is a rock solid prospect in every aspect.”
Tim’s Analysis: This is as simple as seeing who falls to you and picking him. The 1.03 basically picks itself based on what happens at 1.02. Owners will have to do some soul searching if somehow Luck is actually stuck behind Peyton Manning. But let’s cross that bridge when we come to it.
4. dlf_jeffh – Robert Griffin III, QB BAY
Jeff’s Comments: “Most fantasy leagues give 4 pts. for passing TDs. This immediately elevates quarterbacks that can score through the air AND with their feet. Griffin is not only an amazingly accurate QB, but he can punish defenses on the ground as well. If you defend him close to the line, he’ll pass over your head. Fall back into coverage and he’ll chew you up on the ground. He’s what Michael Vick could have been in the NFL. I have little doubt that he’ll be very successful in the NFL unless he is drafted into turmoil.”
Tim’s Analysis: I’d probably have a hard time taking him here but I understand the argument. I expect that there will be a RB that I am more excited about and unless I have pressing needs at QB, I’m going with my best available position player here. But you will need to use a top six pick to get him in just about every league.
5. Shawn – Alshon Jeffery, WR SCAR
Shawn’s Comments: “There are some that actually feel that Jeffery may end up being the best WR in this draft, and I think once he focuses on the upcoming draft and conditioning, he will really open some eyes at the Combine.”
Tim’s Analysis: This was the first pick I disagreed with. I thought this was a reach for a player who has glaring issues in his skill set. I expect he will struggle with separation once he is facing NFL DBs. That said, I agree with Shawn that the Combine will be pivotal for Jeffrey. His bowl game performance strengthened his draft stock, he needs to stay on a roll for me to feel good taking him before the end of the first. I see Jeffery as a controversial prospect in both the NFL and dynasty drafts.
6. dlf_kenk – Lamar Miller, RB MIA
Ken’s Comments: “I’ll go with Miller here, hoping that he ends up in a relatively favorable spot like Cincy or Cleveland.”
Tim’s Analysis: This is the first pick that I felt was difficult to make without knowing the results of the NFL draft. The choice between the RBs will come down to personal preference and situation. Miller is as good a candidate as any to be the RB2 off the board. He’s not my choice, but more on that later.
Trade Advisory: I think the 1.06 is another good candidate for a trade down depending on who is left on the board. If the draft has gone “to form”, the string of players who will go from six to at least ten or eleven all are relatively equal for me. So if I can pick up a second to trade down a couple of spots, I’m game.
7. dlf-kenm – Michael Floyd WR ND
Ken’s Comments: “Floyd has terrific size and strength, and is a physical player who can simply overpower defenders for the ball. He’s not a burner and won’t be breaking free from many NFL corners, but he has the upside to be a solid, borderline great, WR in the NFL. His off-the-field issues were not overly severe, and hopefully he’ll go into the pros with his head screwed on straight.”
Tim’s Analysis: Solid pick, solid value. I have him ranked as my WR2. Not much more to say. He’ll go in the first round of the NLF draft. The Little lovers will disagree, but I like him far better than any of the WRs picked after Julio last year.
8. RobertBobson – Kendall Wright, WR BAY
RB’s Comments: “He’s shorter than I like for a WR prospect, but he’s explosively fast, quick and, for a smaller WR, he’s incredibly strong. Has experience playing both in the slot and on the outside in college, so I think he could be a very versatile in the pros. I see him having Mike Wallace, or even a Steve Smith type ceiling, given how strong he is.”
Tim’s Analysis: Another good pick. He could be the highest upside position player in the draft. I wouldn’t let his size scare me off, but I’d keep a close watch on what he measures at the Combine.
9. dlf_markb – David Wilson, RB VT
Mark’s Comments: “Wilson is one of the fastest RB’s coming out this season and has decent size as well. I think he can be a great asset in PPR leagues in today’s pass happy NFL.”
Tim’s Analysis: This was a steal. He is my RB2 and by a nice margin. I don’t think he gets out of the top six unless he is drafted into a horrendous situation. He’s the only RB other than T.Rich that has a legit NFL first round grade. I’m likely taking him at 1.04 and if he is sliding like this I’m going to engineer a trade to get him.
10. Skip – Doug Martin, RB Boise St.
Skip’s Comments: “Martin is a solid all-around RB. He’s built well, runs low to the ground and fights for yards after contact. As one of the most complete backs in this draft he should hear his name called early to a team looking for an immediate impact.”
Tim’s Analysis: Right on. This pick reflects the value that RB prospects carry in rookie drafts. There are home runs to be had at WR, but the edge generally goes to RB when picking among relatively equal options.
11. Water Buffalo – Chris Polk, RB WAS
WB’s Comments: “I like Polk’s potential to be a true three down back in the NFL and I like his receiving skills out of the backfield which is something that’s very important to me when drafting a RB prospect. With any RB prospect, I very much have to take into consideration where they land. I’m not one of those “talent over situation 100% of the time” people – situation is important to me with RBs specifically.”
Tim’s Analysis: This pick shows why this draft class is so good. Guys like Martin and Polk would have been top-six picks in drafts as weak as 2010 and 2011. Having two QBs go early plus the inherent strength of the class makes the end of the first round very juicy. This type of value is why I could see teams trying to trade down.
12. kris_kapsner – LaMichael James, RB ORE
KK’s Comments: “Nice late first round pick here in my opinion. People are surprisingly low on James in my opinion. Here’s a RB coming off three straight 1,500+ rushing yard seasons. He’s put up more yardage each year and just peaked with over 1,800 rushing yards and averaging 7.3 yards per carry.”
Tim’s Analysis: I think this is about the right place for James to go off the board. He’s going to fall due to his size. Plus I think his NFL draft result will be very important to dynasty owners. Dexter McCluster will scare some off, but James is more Darren Sproles than McCluster. He will not be an every down back but he could become a reliable flex player for fantasy.
ROUND TWO:
In the interest of space, we’ll omit the individual commentary and run through round two a little more quickly:
13. dlf_eric – Mohammed Sanu, WR TEM
14. tstafford – Dwight Jones, WR NC
15. BubbaBurst – Bernard Pierce, RB TEM
16. dlf_jeffh – Rueben Randle, WR LSU
17. Shawn – Ryan Tannehill – QB A&M
18. dlf_kenk – Nick Toon – WR WIS
19. dlf-kenm – Nick Foles QB ARZ
20. RobertBobson – Coby Fleener TE STAN
21. dlf_markb – Chris Rainey RB FLA
22. Skip – Juron Criner, WR ARZ
23. Water Buffalo – Orson Charles TE GEO
24. kris_kapsner – Ryan Broyles, WR Oklahoma
Tim’s Comments:
The high risk/high reward WRs all fell to the top of the second because of the strength of the RB class. Keep this in mind as you consider trade offers that include early seconds. For those who are new to dynasty and maybe weren’t around to see 2008 and 2009, your perspective on the value of early seconds needs to be calibrated to this type of talent. Guys like Sanu and Jones would have never made it to the second in 2010 or 2011.
I think the QBs picked in round two were reasonable BPA driven selections. These are both guys who have similar value to Gabbert, Ponder and Dalton in 2011. Good dynasty assets to add with a second. They may fall as the draft comes into clearer focus. A lot of us are still setting our boards and the late second is murky.
Similarly, I was a tad surprised to see Orson Charles fall this far. With the success of TEs lately, I think there’s a good chance he goes sooner.
Tim’s Note: I hope you enjoyed this very early mock draft. Keep an eye out for my next article that will cover why BPA should be the default strategy for dynasty rookie drafts. Follow me @dynastytim to get my daily dynasty comment about this or that regarding the NFL draft. Or hit me up here on the DLF forums. There’s nothing I like more than to talk about the draft process and dynasty in general.
Editor’s Note: If you don’t know the folks who made these picks, that means you aren’t on the DLF forums. And that means you are missing out on a valuable dynasty asset – the advice of the most knowledgeable and active group of enthusiasts on the Internet. For my two cents, I’d put the cumulative fantasy wisdom of this group against any “expert” or any pay site. You got a tiny taste of how good these guys are from the comments above. Join us. It’s free. Also follow on Twitter @DLFootball.
