Lottery Ticket Anyone?

Editors Note:  This is the first in what we hope will be an ongoing series of articles from some of the most established, respected members of the DLF forum.  These articles may not always reflect the opinions the DLF staff, but they will always be high quality & thought provoking and  are intended to provide a platform for sharing the insights and opinions from some of the best ffb minds around.  Enjoy – KenM

The best and worst thing about dynasty leagues are the differences you find from one league to another.  Sometimes it can take ten minutes just to explain the rules, scoring, and settings.  In talking with a dynasty owner last week, I was amazed to hear how many qualifications there could be on a dynasty league.  “I’m in a 12 team, non-PPR, with 25 player rosters, 2 IR spots, 3 taxi squad spots, a $250 salary cap, a rule that you can only return 90 years of NFL experience, with a 4 round rookie/Free Agent draft.”  Wow, that’s quite a mouthful.

In all honesty, dynasty owners are all trying to do the same thing though, right?  Acquire as much young, consistent talent as possible to produce the maximum number of points each week.  While there are several ways to do so, none of them have the same exhilarating feeling after grabbing a gem off the waiver wire that turns into the next Arian Foster.  The difficulty lies in trying to figure out which players are worth rostering and which players should be ignored.

I’ve read tons of great waiver wire pickup articles, but the problem is almost all the players listed are already on rosters in the leagues I play in.  That’s where this article comes in…

I’m going to give you some names that are potential lottery tickets, meaning there is a chance of little to no return on investment, but also the possibility of hitting the jackpot.  These are players who would typically be available in leagues with a total roster size of 300 or fewer players.

What you won’t find here are some players who have already been touted as “the next big thing,” such as New Orleans TE Jimmy Graham or Packers QB Matt Flynn.  I am going to try to dig just a little bit deeper for those of you that want to stay a step ahead.

Quarterbacks

• Dan Lefevour (CIN) – With Carson Palmer’s recent ultimatum to either be traded or retire, it makes Lefevour an interesting name on this list.  He currently sits as the #3 QB in Cincinnati, but I can’t imagine Carson leaving Cincinnati and his brother, Jordan staying as the #2.
• Mike Kafka (PHI) – He is behind both Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb, but with all of the trade rumors swirling about Kolb, he would be a good investment, especially for a Vick owner.
• Tyler Thigpen (MIA) – He is probably never going to be a top 10 QB in the NFL, but has shown above average athleticism and calmness under pressure.  With possibly just Chad Henne between him and a starting job, he’s a name to remember.
• Stephen McGee (DAL) – Not too long ago, there was a young QB on the roster who wasn’t expected to be the starter in Dallas.  We all know him now as the Cowboys starting QB.  Could the same happen to McGee?
• Brian Hoyer (NE) – Remember 2008?  If something were to happen to Brady, you may see a situation similar to Cassel in ’08.
• Caleb Hanie (CHI) – The cat may already be out of the bag after the NFC Championship game, but Hanie has showed he has guts and plays behind a QB who was the most sacked in the NFL.
• Josh Johnson (TB) – He has already been covered in another DLF article, but I thought he was worth mentioning again.  He also only has one year left on his contract and more athleticism than almost any QB in the league.

Running Backs

• Tyrell Sutton (CAR) – After Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart were injured, Sutton briefly enjoyed some time as the featured back for the Panthers.  He was promptly injured, allowing Goodson to step into that role.  With Williams possibly out of the picture, Sutton may get the chance again.
• Jalen Parmele (BAL) – All of his value hinges on whether or not Willis McGahee leaves in free agency.  If he does, someone has to pick up the extra carries and possibly a TD or two.
• Kareem Huggins (TB) – Yes, I know everyone has heard his name by now and if you’re like me, have even had him on your roster.  Sometimes players that get injured are forgotten about, but he may see a role next year as a change-of-pace back to team with Blount.
• Marcel Reese (OAK) – He is the most athletic fullback I have ever seen.  He also has an incredible story about his move from WR to HB to FB in the past few years. If Bush leaves, his value skyrockets.
• Danny Ware (NYG) – This is more of a matter of opportunity than anything, but with Bradshaw as a free agent, he may get a better look next season.
• Lance Ball (DEN) – I don’t think he has incredible talent, but with Fox typically employing a RBBC, it’s never a bad idea to grab the backup.
• Kahlil Bell (CHI) – I believe I saw somewhere that Chester Taylor had the lowest yards per carry in the modern era of football.  That tells me the Bears may be looking for a RB2 going into next year.

Wide Receivers

• Dorin Dickerson (HOU) – He didn’t record a catch in 2010, but has all the physical tools to be a great compliment to Andre Johnson for the Texans.
• Andre Roberts (AZ) – You could also add Early Doucet here, as someone will most likely emerge as the #2 WR in Arizona over the next season or two.
• Brian Robiskie (CLE) – I’m sure he’s been on rosters at one time or another, but after a couple of disappointing seasons may be on waivers once again.  With McCoy getting more experience in the offense, he may get a chance to win back owners.
• Andre Caldwell (CIN) – With Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson-Ochocinco-Johnson most likely out of Cincinnati, someone has to step up, right?  Along with Jerome Simpson, Caldwell is the best bet at this point.
• Riley Cooper (PHI) – He may be more of a threat in PPR leagues, but Cooper has shown he can make the tough catch across the middle.  He reminds me a little of Austin Collie.
• Dezmon Briscoe (TB) – Before he was waived by the Bengals, a lot of experts were high on him.  He’s now a member of the young receiving corp in Tampa and may have a chance to win the slot position next season.
• Tiquan Underwood (JAX) – A lot of his value depends on where Sims-Walker ends up, but he has a shot to become the #2 WR opposite Mike Thomas.
• Adrian Arrington (NO) – New Orleans has so many weapons that Arrington didn’t get much of a chance, but that could change this offseason.  He would have additional value in a league that rewards return yardage.
• Brandon Banks (WAS) – With Santana Moss getting older (I think we’ve been saying that for about 5 years now) he may be starting to slow down.  Along comes Banks, whose game resembles his in a lot of ways.

Tight Ends

• Jared Cook (TEN) – A 6’5’’, 240 lb. Tight End that can run a 4.5 40 yard dash.  Do I need to say anything else?
• Ed Dickson (BAL) – While Todd Heap looked really good toward the end of the year, he’s not young anymore and the Ravens addressed the Tight End position by drafting two last season.  He may not pan out until 2012, but the talent is there.
• Evan Moore (CLE) – A big, physical specimen that is also very athletic.  He would make a very nice target in the red zone for McCoy.

Hopefully that gives you a few guys to add to your “watch list” and possibly a player or two to stash for the future.  Who knows when one of those guys explodes and you can brag to your league mates all about it.

Just like with the lottery, you know what they say… ”You can’t win if you don’t play.”