{"id":1445601,"date":"2012-07-06T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-07-06T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dynastyleaguefootball.com\/2012\/07\/startup-dynasty-adp-series-the-tight-ends\/"},"modified":"2012-07-06T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-07-06T07:00:00","slug":"startup-dynasty-adp-series-the-tight-ends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dynastyleaguefootball.com\/2012\/07\/06\/startup-dynasty-adp-series-the-tight-ends\/","title":{"rendered":"Startup Dynasty ADP Series: The Tight Ends"},"content":{"rendered":"
We are in the midst of startup draft season. This is a glorious time for dynasty owners as we get a chance for a fresh start. A chance to make up for the mistakes of the past and a chance to try and repeat our past successes. Owners in my leagues have a variety of ways to prepare for a startup draft. Perhaps the simplest and most effective tool to use is startup average draft position data. While every league is different and it only takes one owner \u201creaching\u201d for a favorite player to throw off the ADP data, this information can be an invaluable tool. Not only will it help as you prepare for a startup dynasty draft, but also in analyzing potential trade ideas or just staying on top of the current market value of each player.<\/p>\n
Since January, I have been following startup dynasty drafts featuring PPR scoring and starting only one quarterback. I have compiled data for over thirty drafts to help you dominate your league. If you missed the quarterbacks, just click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n In this series, I will take a look at the average draft position of starting level players. This will include an in-depth look at the top twelve quarterbacks and tight ends and the top twenty-four running backs and wide receivers. For the purpose of this series, I will refer to these players as fantasy starters, although I do realize many of these players are being drafted based on their upside and potential and may not be counted on as starters early on.<\/p>\n Some notes about the data collected<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n * Rookies were only included in 14 of the drafts.<\/p>\n * Players had to be selected in at least 25% of drafts to be included.<\/p>\n * Ages are as of September 2012.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s a look at the top twelve dynasty tight ends, based on current ADP.<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n *\u00a0 Much like the elite quarterbacks this season, tight ends are being drafted higher than ever before. There are two who stand out to everyone – Rob Gronkowski<\/strong>\u00a0of the Patriots and Jimmy Graham <\/strong>of the Saints.<\/strong>\u00a0But, are these two players worth their early second round average draft position?<\/p>\n Gronkowski is dealing with a mysterious ankle injury and is now rumored to be a candidate for the training camp PUP list. While this is not the same PUP list that would keep him out the first six games of the season, it is a concern.<\/p>\n Graham has fewer questions, but he and his team are dealing with uncertainty with the two most important people in their organization – head coach Sean Payton is suspended for the entire 2012 season and starting quarterback Drew Brees<\/strong> is in the midst of a contract dispute with the team. This offense could look slightly different this year.<\/p>\n My advice is that these two players, while elite, are not wise choices early in your startup draft. Although we have never seen tight ends drafted this early, we have seen them overdrafted. I\u2019ll come back to that idea soon.<\/p>\n *\u00a0 The gap from the top two tight ends to the next tier of three is very noticeable. After the top two players are chosen in the first or second round, on average, it will be another two rounds before the next set of Aaron Hernandez, Vernon Davis<\/strong> and Jermichael Finley<\/strong> are chosen. This is where you can begin to find value in your draft. My personal favorite is Hernandez due to his age and great offense in New England. Davis is also a great option in the middle of the fifth round.<\/p>\n *\u00a0 Jermichael Finley is a surprising case. Looking at his career statistics, he is being way overdrafted, even as TE5 in the fifth round. Finley has played 48 career games for the Packers, yet he has only scored in double digit points (PPR scoring) ten times. In only one of those games did he eclipse 20 fantasy points. For comparison, other tight ends being drafted as top five options include Gronkowski (16 double digit games\/32 games played), Graham (15\/31), Hernandez (11\/28), and Vernon Davis (26\/88). This gives Finley a much lower percentage of double digit scoring games compared to the other top five options. Let another owner take Finley in the fifth round.<\/p>\n *\u00a0 In the third tier of TE1s, we see a mixture of once elite options in Jason Witten<\/strong> and Antonio Gates<\/strong>, along with some younger tight ends now viewed as adequate starters in Fred Davis<\/strong>, Brandon Pettigrew<\/strong> and Jermaine Gresham<\/strong>. Gresham not only carries the latest average draft position, but he is also the youngest of these three options. Pettigrew is older than many might think – he’ll be 27 years old when the season starts in September. Gresham is over three years younger and part of an similarly explosive young offense.<\/p>\n *\u00a0 That leaves veterans Witten and Gates as choices in this tier. With Gates\u2019 injury concerns, Witten is the safer choice, but he also comes with a higher price tag going off the board a full round ahead of Gates. Witten will continue to be a top option for Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo<\/strong>, but he is also battling Miles Austin<\/strong> and Dez Bryant<\/strong> for targets. The best option if choosing from this tier is to take the last player in the tier, Jermaine Gresham<\/strong>, and pair him with a veteran option from the next tier.<\/p>\n *\u00a0 The final two tight ends being drafted as TE1s are Coby Fleener<\/strong> and Jared Cook.<\/strong> While both have great upside, they are second or third options in average offenses. It seems that Cook has been due for his big breakout season for years and he continues to be a below average starting fantasy tight end. We are still unsure what we are getting with Fleener and he will likely not be ready to start for your fantasy team in 2012, but he is a great option to draft in the ninth round and pair with a veteran later in the draft.<\/p>\n *\u00a0 Tight ends in the top twelve who are rising according to recent draft data include Hernandez and Fleener.<\/p>\n *\u00a0 Players with a falling average draft position are Witten and Finley. Both could be had slightly lower than the data provided.<\/p>\n While the next set of tight ends are not being drafted as TE1s, there is still some great value to be found. Here\u2019s a look at the remaining tight ends and where they are being drafted in startup dynasty leagues.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n *\u00a0 Kyle Rudolph<\/strong> begins the next set of tight ends and with his average draft position so close to that of Cook and Fleener, he is included in the tier with them as a lower end TE1. He also is a player I am not sure I\u2019d be comfortable starting in 2012. Like Fleener, Rudolph is another young player I would take and pair with a veteran later in the draft.<\/p>\n *\u00a0 Eagles tight end Brent Celek<\/strong> kicks off the next tier in which there is little separation from player to player. As I mentioned in the quarterback article<\/a>, if there is one of these players that you really like, throw out the average draft position and grab him while you can. This is the general rule after the tenth round.<\/p>\n