My Dynasty Mind: Dynasty Fantasy Football Running Back Landscape

Well, that was fun. Another year is in the books and hopefully you hoisted a dynasty league championship. While the games are great and results are obviously important, this is actually my favorite time of year. Yes, I actually enjoy the off-season more than actual fantasy football. I love breaking down the NFL Draft, evaluating rookies, re-establishing the veteran dynasty fantasy landscape and giving you all as much information as I can in order to be prepared for the beginning of the upcoming year.

This year, I’m going to be posting a regular series – My Dynasty Mind. This series is intended for me to pull back the curtain a bit and share what I’m doing in terms of team building, roster evaluation, player assessments, trade possibilities, value changes or anything else I’m thinking of. My hope is this series helps guide you through your off-season and helps you be in position to win again next year.

In this installment, I’m taking a look at the running back position. One of the first things I do every off-season is stop and look through the running back depth charts to evaluate a few things:

1.) Which teams could be in line to draft a new running back
2.) Which running backs could be good to trade away now before the bottom falls out

My rationale for doing this now is simple – this is the best time to trade AWAY a running back and worst time to trade FOR one.  With that in mind, let’s scour the league and evaluate where some possibilities could lie. I’m going to label these in terms of danger and volatility.

FREE AGENTS
These players are going to change things around the league when and if they find new homes. I wouldn’t trade for any of them until I knew what happens.

Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift, Devin Singletary, AJ Dillon, Zack Moss.

There could be some opportunities for throw-ins on some trades or sneaky wire pickups when you evaluate this group. This could include Rico Dowdle, Tajae Spears, Dameon Pierce, Zamir White and Emanuel Wilson. There is obvious value in this free agent group and it’s a big one. Every one of these players signing elsewhere will affect another player on that team’s depth chart. My guess is teams like Dallas, New England, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Houston, Tennessee, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles (Chargers), New York (Giants), Philadelphia, Washington, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Carolina, and Arizona could all be in the market for running backs. Again, it’s volatile – way too volatile to be thinking of anything as an absolute. I’d hold on to these players for the moment unless I’m blown away by an offer that’s giving me more than market value.

LIKELY SAFE
I’d be surprised to see their roles change through the off-season with free agency and the rookie draft. While I wouldn’t trade for them because you’re simply buying high, I wouldn’t be trading them away, either.

De’Von Achane
James Cook
Breece Hall
Jonathan Taylor
Travis Etienne
Isiah Pacheco
Jahmyr Gibbs
Bijan Robinson
Rachaad White
Kyren Williams
Christian McCaffrey
Kenneth Walker

Achane established himself as one of the most explosive players in the league. Cook seems to have turned a corner. To me, Breece Hall has a chance to be the overall RB1 next year. Taylor is starting to look like th the old Taylor. Etienne has been good but not great. Still, he’s been solid. Pacheco has been a revelation for Kansas City and he’s on a cheap contract. Gibbs was awesome as a “2” in a “1-2” punch. Bijan Robinson was a little disappointing but a new coach could change that. White is probably at this value ceiling but the Bucs have other needs to address other than running back. Kyren Williams has established himself as the dude in LA. McCaffrey is, well, pretty good. Walker should be a little safer now that Carroll and his constant “competitions” are no longer in Seattle.

HOLD
Their future is a little unknown but it’s hard to see their value going lower. I’d still sell if I had an equitable offer. Again, this group likely doesn’t feature very much runway for value gains, either.

Nick Chubb
Alvin Kamara
Najee Harris
Jaylen Warren
Javonte Williams
Brian Robinson
Khalil Herbert
Roschon Johnson
Zach Charbonnet
David Montgomery
Aaron Jones
Ty Chandler
Tyler Allgeier
Kendre Miller
Elijah Mitchell
Jordan Mason

This is an odd group to say the least. The Browns want Chubb back and I personally think he’s being devalued too much. Kamara catches passes but his explosiveness just isn’t what it once was. Harris and Warren are still eating into each other’s value. Javonte Williams was a huge disappointment. I don’t see Robinson being a long-term fit but it’s hard to say. Herbert and Johnson may not be the answer in Chicago. I still like Charbonnet as a future option or change-of-pace in Seattle. Montgomery is great but also aging. Same with Aaron Jones. Chandler has shown flashes but I can’t see him being a long-term answer. Allgeier was in the mix this year but what about next season? Kendre Miller just didn’t have much of a chance. I like Mitchell and Mason in that system but CMC will rule that town until he retires. Again, these are players who you probably hold but certainly can’t overvalue.

VOLATILE
These would be players I’d be looking to move. I just don’t see their value climbing this off-season.

Raheem Mostert
James Conner
Jamaal Williams
Chuba Hubbard
Miles Sanders
Alexander Mattison
Rhamondre Stevenson
Ezekiel Elliott
Gus Edwards
Joe Mixon

Mostert is great but I think he’s the single best “sell high” candidate this off-season because of his injury history and unclear future. Conner was great this year but how many does he really have left? Jamaal Williams predictably regressed from his touchdown bonanza in Detroit the previous year. Hubbard was a bit of a revelation for the Panthers but I don’t see that lasting. Sanders was a total bust. As was Mattison. Rhamondre Stevenson had a pretty awful season and it’s hard to say what his future holds. Elliott isn’t long for the league at this point. Edwards always finds a way to be relevant but Baltimore would rather that not be the case, either. Mixon had been productive but hardly dynamic and there have been rumors the Bengals are ready to move on. Is this the year they do it?

TRADE TARGETS
To me, I think the prime targets at the moment would be Zamir White and Tajae Spears, though both may be overvalued at the moment. If you have a dynasty manager who doesn’t believe in them, you could take the gamble you’re getting a starter for next year on the cheap. It could blow up in your face but not if you buy at the right price. Waiver targets for me are likely players like Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, Chris Rodriguez and Emanuel Wilson. I just wouldn’t overpay for any of them. Again, I believe this is the time to sell instead of buy.

I hope you enjoy my Saturday morning ramblings. Again, this is going to be my off-season space to share what my plans entail all off-season long. I do this exercise at the end of every January. Hope it helps!