Talent vs Situation: How to Draft a Rookie

The NFL Draft has wrapped up, and it's time for the thrilling dynasty rookie draft season! It can start off all exciting, like it's Christmas morning for a kid, but things can quickly turn stressful and frustrating when it's your turn to pick. These days, it seems like there are a million different strategies out there, and every player looks amazing on someone's random metric chart. With all this information flying around, it can be tough to make up your mind when it's finally time to draft a player. You might be wondering: how can it be so hard after spending all that time researching, listening to podcasts, and making your rankings? Well, that's where the NFL Draft comes in.

Every year, dynasty managers get excited about certain players during the off-season. As soon as the Super Bowl is over, we start obsessing over these prospects. By April, we're convinced we know exactly which teams the players should go to. The problem is, we're not the people making those decisions, and the NFL teams don't always pick the players we want them to. In fact, a lot of the time, our favorite players end up in bad situations, while the players we don't like land in the perfect spot. That brings us to the age-old question: should we draft for talent or situation? The short answer is both, but let's dive a little deeper into that. Even though we seem to forget it every year, we have the benefit of hindsight. We can look back at previous draft classes to see what worked and what didn't.

2021 ADP