2024 Coaching Changes: The Dynasty Impact of Antonio Pierce to the Las Vegas Raiders

Savvy fantasy football managers focus on all positions of a football team, including the coaching staff. Offseason changes can hugely impact skill players’ production at certain positions. Throughout the off-season, we will take a detailed look at one of the eight coaches who have found new homes and examine the potential dynasty impact on the key members of that team. We have a bonus this season. Our resident IDP expert, Tom Kislingbury, has joined us to cover the defensive impact of the changes.

Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce hired as Head Coach

Next up in our coaching change series is the Las Vegas Raiders. This one is a bit different and intriguing because we have some history to work with. Antonio Pierce was retained as the interim coach in Sin City after Josh McDaniels was finally found out for who and what he truly is. It is a tough road ahead as he is tasked with taking over a franchise that has made just two postseason appearances since 2022.

Pierce, a former star NFL player, began coaching at the high school level ten years ago and rapidly ascended to his current position. He is a true “players coach,” and his team seems to really enjoy playing for him. Pierce then went on to work for Marvin Lewis at Arizona State before becoming the linebackers coach in Vegas. Ironically enough, it was McDaniels who hired Pierce as his linebackers coach.

Expected Change in Offensive Philosophy and Approach

McDaniels was fired on Halloween night, the day after the Raiders lost to the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. We have nine weeks of data to dissect to determine what the team may look like in 2024.

Breaking down the numbers, there wasn’t a massive difference in the number of pass plays per game. Under coach McDaniels for the first eight games, the Raiders averaged 32.75 pass attempts per game. The final nine games under Pierce saw that number dip ever so slightly to 32.44. The big difference was in the run game. The number of rushing attempts jumped up to 23.22 from 18.38. That also means there were nearly five more plays per game run under Pierce.

Core Tenets We Can Expect for the 2024 Panthers Offense Are:

Run Heavy Attack

We already mentioned that Pierce and company ran the ball more post-McDaniels in 2023. It was a bit of a surprise that the team let Josh Jacobs go, but looking at how well Zamir White performed in his absence, the move made sense financially. The team has a lot of holes to fill and the money spent to franchise Jacobs can be spent elsewhere.

More Adams, Less Meyers

Davante Adams was more heavily involved under Pierce as it should be. Jakobi Meyers is a nice player but has nowhere near the game-changing ability that Adams displays on a weekly basis. Expect to see over 150 targets for the former Packer yet again in 2024.

Dink and Dunk

Luke Getsy has been brought in to coordinate the offense. We know what the Chicago Bears offense was all about the past two seasons. We will likely see something similar in Vegas this year, further adding to the massive number of targets Adams should see.

Offensive Players Most Affected by the Change

Quarterback

Aidan O’Connell/Gardner Minshew

We don’t know who the Raiders’ starting quarterback will be at this point. Both players have shown the ability to put up 20-plus point performances, but each lacks consistency. The newly hired Getsy appears to be sold on O’Connell and admires what he achieved during his rookie season. Pay attention to the news coming out of training camp as to who has the advantage and the best chance to start. Either could be a serviceable bye-week fill-in for Superflex leagues.

Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App

Running Backs

Zamir White/Alexander Mattison

We mentioned earlier that it was somewhat surprising that Jacobs was allowed to walk. Las Vegas did shore up their backfield somewhat by signing Alexander Mattison to complement a young Zamir White. We also noted that White performed well without Jacobs, and everyone thought Mattison was the heir apparent to Dalvin Cook. It’ll be interesting to see how the carries shake out in 2024.

Data Courtesy of RotoViz.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams/Jakobi Meyers

We all know that Adams is the alpha, and we mentioned that trend should continue in 2024. Meyers is a nice piece and probably available for less than you may think from a fellow manager who is not sold on the quarterback situation. Send out some feelers and see if you can get a bargain.

Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

Tight Ends

Michael Mayer/Harrison Bryant

As is the case with Adams, Mayer is the top dog here. Harrison Bryant has upside but finds himself buried on the depth chart yet again. In Cleveland, it was David Njoku; now, it is the youngster Mayer. Whoever is the quarterback, the Getsy system will likely have them target Mayer heavily a la Cole Kmet (TE8) in Chicago. When the Bears offense was clicking down the stretch, Kmet was heavily involved. For those invested in Mayer, they are hoping Getsy learned from that experience in the Windy City.

Data Courtesy of DLF Player Gamelog App

Three Moves Dynasty Managers Should Think About:

1. Sell Devante Adams

You might be asking why we recommend selling Davante Adams after hyping up the number of targets he will likely receive in 2024. The answer is simple: age and a decline in production. The former Green Bay Packer will turn 32 late in the upcoming season. That is ancient in terms of dynasty players.

Also, the past two seasons have shown a steady decline in catch percentage and touchdowns. Some of it can be blamed on poor quarterback play, but Tom Brady is not walking through that door so the problem isn’t going to resolve itself anytime soon.

2. Buy Zamir White

We’ve mentioned Josh Jacobs‘s departure and shown White’s ability to perform without him. All that is standing in his way of RB1 status is Alexander Mattison. Mattison couldn’t be the guy in Minnesota after Dalvin Cook departed for New York, so there is no reason to think things will be different in Vegas with White. It looks like dynasty managers aren’t buying White as a full-time back. We are, and you should also for his current acquisition cost.

3. Buy Michael Mayer

Michael Mayer was selected 35th overall for a reason. That reason wasn’t to play second fiddle to Harrison Bryant. With Davante Adams’s age and production declining, the Notre Dame grad makes sense to be the next in line to be a star in Vegas. We already mentioned Kmet finishing as the TE8 under Getsy. The year prior, Kmet had managed a replica of the TE8 finish. Get Mayer on your roster before he breaks out.

Expected Change in Defensive Philosophy and Approach

maxx crosby | credit: charles leclaire

The Raiders’ defensive coaching staff appears relatively steady. Patrick Graham was appointed defensive coordinator before the 2022 season and is still in that job. However, two other defense-minded coaches are arguably above him in the actual hierarchy. Antonio Pierce, of course, was appointed the head coach.

Aside from last season, he’s never been a head coach or coordinator in the NFL. The team brought in veteran Marv Lewis as assistant head coach. Lewis has been out of the NFL since leaving the Bengals in 2018. However, he and Pierce worked closely together at Arizona State.
It seems clear that Pierce and Lewis will somehow influence what the Raiders’ defense looks like. Both have made their bones on the defensive side of the ball. Even if neither has run a modern NFL defense, this situation is tricky for everyone involved.

In his two years as titular DC, Patrick Graham delivered a horrible 2022 defense but recovered in 2023 with the best Raiders defense since at least 2010. Admittedly, that’s not a high bar. From 2010-2022, the Raiders defense averaged in the 23rd percentile. But now we’ve got a HC who has never delivered a great defense at any level. He is an assistant head coach who has been out of the NFL for five seasons and was arguably past his prime back then. And a defensive coordinator whose best season was a team with a losing record who brought in two guys above him.

Scheme-wise, the Raiders are likely to use similar personnel packages. Expect 425 Nickel to make up around 70% of snaps. 75% if you include edge-in fronts. 34 base will account for another 10-15%. Traditionalists will call it a 34 defense, but that’s inadequate terminology for the modern game.

For IDP purposes, what we really want to know is how much we’ll be seeing two orthodox linebackers on the field. Last season, the Raiders had two on the field on 94% of snaps (compared to an NFL average of 77%), and that’s likely to increase, if anything, given Lewis’ old-school presence. They’re a lower-than-average blitzing defense that generates little pressure beyond Maxx Crosby. And they lack playmakers anywhere in the back seven (at least before the draft).

Defensive Players Most Affected by the Change

Defensive Line

Christian Wilkins

Wilkins had an incredible 2022 season in IDP terms, with a huge tackle volume. That predictably dried up in 2023, but he somewhat made up for it by doubling his previous-best sack total. Given what the Raiders paid for him, he’s likely to be expected to deliver that pass rush over tackle numbers. He’s a risky IDP in that his perceived value is based on one good tackle season and one good pass rush season, which weren’t in the same year. He could have a great 2024, but it’s not guaranteed.

Tyree Wilson

We expect rookies to be bad—even highly drafted ones. But Wilson is a step above. After being selected 7th overall, he played 66th-most snaps among all edges and finished 80th in edge pressures. He was inferior. But (depending on what happens in the draft) the Raiders might be forced into relying on him anyway. Maxx Crosby plays almost every snap, but they have minimal edge talent aside from him. He’s an IDP hold because you can’t sell him. But please don’t add him anywhere.

Malcolm Koonce

Unless the Raiders somehow add another elite edge, they’re going to have to rely on Koonce and Wilson. Last year, they both played around 500 snaps, but we can likely expect Wilson to see more and Koonce fewer, with the potential for much more if Maxx Crosby gets hurt.

Linebackers

Divine Deablo

Deablo was a not-quite full-time LB in 2023. He averaged 54 snaps per (full) week compared to Robert Spillane’s 65. Those 11 snaps per week over his 14 full games add up to 165 snaps. It’s well over the equivalent of two full NFL games. In 2024, he is likely to see a significant boost.

Secondary

Nate Hobbs

Hobbs certainly seems to have a nose for the ball and has consistently delivered good tackle numbers in his three years in the NFL. But he’s also one of those guys that everyone thinks is their own little secret. He also tends to be highly coveted as an IDP. If you’re reading this, you already know that high-priced cornerbacks are a stupid approach to IDP. If you can get a reasonable price, he’s a good sell.

Three Moves IDP Dynasty Managers Should Think About

1. Sell Christian Wilkins

He’s a huge name, and he just signed a huge contract. But he’s not a proven elite option as an IDP. Let him go if you can find someone who values him as one of the top handful of guys. I’d be looking to move him for Jeffery Simmons plus.

2. Sell Nate Hobbs

Valuing cornerbacks is a mug’s game in IDP, especially in dynasty. And yet, there’s always someone in every league who thinks this guy is different.

3. Buy Divine Deablo

This is not without risk. The Raiders may bring in a rookie or a vet to compete with Deablo. But he disappointed last season after an off-season of hype. You might be able to find a disgruntled owner who thinks he’s getting out cheap.

Conclusion

Thanks for reading the third of our eight coaching series recaps. We hope you are enjoying the added defensive content. This Raiders team has many moving parts, and it will look completely different from what it did in 2023 on both sides of the ball. The way we figure it, things cannot be much worse. All signs point to improvements on the offensive side, and it would be disappointing if they weren’t—scenarios like these present prime opportunities to buy low.