We bring you our annual Rookie Bust Mock Draft, post-draft edition.
Jason King goes in-depth on last year's defensive backs and their IDP futures.
Part of the Betsperts Media and Technology Group
The rookie bust mock draft is one of our favorite things to do at DLF each year. This unique draft is designed to show who we think has the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. We drafted one player at a time and anyone at DLF could jump in (they just couldn't go back-to-back with their picks). The top selection (1.01) was the player in the top 20 who they believed carries the single greatest amount of risk. In other words, they have the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. In other words, the last player taken (2.08) is the safest and the first carries the most risk. All players had to be taken off our list of the top 20 rookies, so that's as follows:
Ashton Jeanty
Omarion Hampton
Travis Hunter
Tetairoa McMillan
Quinshon Judkins
TreVeyon Henderson
Tyler Warren
Colston Loveland
Emeka Egbuka
Matthew Golden
Kaleb Johnson
RJ Harvey
Jayden Higgins
Luther Burden
Tre Harris
Cam Ward
Mason Taylor
Cam Skattebo
Jaylin Noel
With all that in mind, let's get to it with our post-draft version. I'll add the comments made and a few of my own with each pick.
Comments from inside the War Room: "An average receiver who can run fast in a straight line. Landed in a group of average wideouts that already includes a receiver who can run fast in a straight line (but can’t stay healthy). Just don’t see the hype of this post-combine riser."
My thoughts: I can see the logic here. The Packers may not have a true alpha receiver, but they have a lot of pretty good ones. Anyone who takes Golden is going to have to do so in round one, and that may be a tough proposition since that kind of draft capital really assumes he'll be their WR1 for a long while.
My Comments from inside the War Room: "I like RJ Harvey a lot, but not enough to justify the Broncos taking him at #60 overall. The draft capital alone took him from a third round rookie pick to a first-rounder. I'm always wary of massive post-draft value challenges, and while I love the landing spot, he still has to compete with Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin. He's projected to be the starter and do just that, but it could still be a committee in the end, and that's tough to swallow."
Comments from inside the War Room: "Thrust into the NFL, landing on a Titans offense with one of the worst skill position groups in the league. Adding in Ward’s erratic and inconsistent play, this could be a recipe for disaster. He is a talented, flashy player, albeit shining against a lower level of competition in college - he’s got a higher risk of bust potential than a standard consensus top six rookie pick. Dynasty managers will gravitate to Ward as the QB1 in rookie drafts, making him potentially overvalued and pushed up boards due to a lack of alternative options at the position."
My thoughts: I'm not sure I would have taken him this highly, as I think he has a decent chance for success. However, it does seem like many are advertising him as the next big thing. In reality, I don't think he'd be in the top three quarterbacks taken next season.
Comments from inside the War Room: "This might seem strange because Johnson should get a big workload with the Steelers with Najee Harris now gone. While I think Johnson has skills, replacing a first-round pick with a third-round pick and expecting him to be an improvement? I just don't get that. Harris and Johnson seem like very similar players as far as skill set is concerned. I think Johnson will be decent, but I don't expect him to be better than what Harris was for the Steelers, a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3."
Kaleb Johnson | Credit: Jeffrey Becker
My thoughts: Jaylen Warren isn't going anywhere, and the Steelers don't have a ton invested here. While I like Johnson and would have him more in the middle of the pack in this exercise, there is certainly an element of risk here.
