Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 11

Welcome! In this series, I try and be short, sharp, and to the point offering some conclusions based on trends in volume and regression.

Can I be honest? I’m tired. At this point in the season, I’m starting to consider dropping any league that isn’t best ball. Between collecting data, breaking it down, writing it up, and recording about it, I’m fatigued with all things fantasy football by Tuesday most weeks, and after 11 weeks of data, I’m very less than undermotivated to open my league pages and look for trade options, waiver wire targets, or make roster moves.

But so is everyone else. There’s very little that can protect against league fatigue in-season, especially for teams not in strong contention. If it’s affecting us, the odds are, it’s affecting your league mates as well.

The downside of this is that several managers won’t respond to trades anymore. But the upside is those who do are also looking at a depleted number of managers willing to respond. Whether you are building or trying to win, the smaller option pool puts anyone who can pull their enthusiasm together enough to keep trying in a position to get difference-making moves done.

In other words, we’re all tired. The difference between this year’s champion, and next year's champion, might be how many weeks you can keep making yourself try to make moves right now. So long as it doesn’t hurt your mental health too much, it’s worth trying.

With that said, let’s update our trade bait, respond to trade offers, and look over the trends and regression due each team after eleven weeks, shall we?

You can find my tables for each team in my free weekly database here.

ARI: Marquise Brown a’comin

Brown once again led the team in routes (20.7%) but was third on the team in target share (17.2%) behind Trey McBride's continued breakout (24.1%) and a blow-up game from Greg Dortch (27.6%).

Following the volume is the core of my fantasy process, even when it’s tough. I’m sending offers on Brown.

Dorch is a good NFL player who, together with Rondale Moore (who managed only one target on 30 routes even if he was able to take for a touchdown), plays an important part in the receiving game in Arizona. However, Dortch and Moore, have aDots under six in most games. Brown has a higher red zone presence (16.2% of touches inside the 20 per game this year) and more air under the ball on every target (11.6 aDot.)

BAL: The answer is probably simpler than we think