Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week 17

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week 16 QB1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points Last Week
QB1 | Josh Allen, BUF | 24.98
QB2 | Derek Carr, NO | 24.96
QB3 | Joe Flacco, CLE | 24.82
QB4 | Justin Fields, CHI | 24.50
QB5 | Jordan Love, GB | 23.96
QB6 | Russell Wilson, DEN | 23.52
QB7 | Jalen Hurts, PHI | 23.44
QB8 | Lamar Jackson, BAL | 22.58
QB9 | Bryce Young, CAR | 22.18
QB10 | Matthew Stafford, LAR | 20.72
QB11 | Kyler Murray, ARI | 20.40
QB12 | Mason Rudolph, PIT | 20.00

Veteran Joe Flacco was once again a huge story as he torched the Texans’ defense for three scores on his way to the QB3 finish for the week. Flacco is now just 6.6 fantasy points behind Deshaun Watson for the season despite playing two fewer games. In what appears to be his final start for the team, Russell Wilson posted solid fantasy numbers against one of the league’s top pass defenses, only to ultimately lose the game to the Patriots. That loss sealed the fate of the Broncos and likely ended Wilson’s tenure in Denver.

Season-Long QB1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season
QB1 | Josh Allen, BUF | 348.42
QB2 | Jalen Hurts, PHI | 337.04
QB3 | Dak Prescott, DAL | 297.38
QB4 | Lamar Jackson, BAL | 294.88
QB5 | Brock Purdy, SF | 278.00
QB6 | Jordan Love, GB | 272.08
QB7 | Patrick Mahomes, KC | 268.22
QB8 | Jared Goff, DET | 257.46
QB9 | Russell Wilson, DEN | 256.90
QB10 | Baker Mayfield, TB | 251.62
QB11 | Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | 247.86
QB12 | Trevor Lawrence, JAX | 246.34

Jordan Love has more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes. I know there are many factors that play into that and much more context is needed, but it really is shocking. Following the strong fantasy performance, Wilson joined the top twelve as the QB9, although he’s sure to fall out again as he won’t play the final two games. Also joining the QB1 group after last week were Tua Tagovailoa and Baker Mayfield. They replaced the benched Sam Howell and the injured Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud.

Most QB1 Games This Season

QB1 Games | Players
13 | Jalen Hurts
12 |
11 | Josh Allen
10 | Sam Howell
9 | Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson
8 | Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson
7 | CJ Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Jordan Love

Most QB1 Games Allowed

QB1 Games Allowed | Team DSTs
12 | WAS
11 |
10 | JAX
9 |
8 | ARI, CHI, DET, HOU, LAC, TB
7 | CIN, NO, PHI
6 | ATL, GB, IND, LAR, NYG, SEA, TEN
5 | BUF, DAL, DEN, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, SF
4 | CLE, KC, PIT
3 | CAR, NYJ
2 | BAL

Last week was a rough one for the 49ers and Brock Purdy, who fell from MVP favorite to some suggesting he was actually benched in favor of Sam Darnold. Regardless, as long as Purdy is healthy, he should be able to bounce back in a big way against the Commanders, who have allowed a league-high 12 QB1 games on the season. Washington also allows a league-worst 24.8 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. It’s a Purdy week!

The Jaguars are next in line, having given up ten QB1 performances. This week, they face Bryce Young and the Panthers. Young has only posted two QB1 games on the season but one did come just last week against the Packers.

Other defenses to target when looking for your Week Seventeen quarterback include the Eagles (vs. Kyler Murray), Chargers (vs. Jarrett Stidham), and Buccaneers (vs. Derek Carr.)

The Ravens shut down Purdy last week and have still only given up two QB1 games on the season. They hope to stay hot against the offensive-minded Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa. This is a tough week to rely on Tagovailoa, even in a superflex league. The Panthers and Jets have surrendered only three QB1 games each. The Panthers travel to Jacksonville, likely facing backup CJ Beathard, while the Jets will try to slow the red-hot Flacco later tonight.

Other matchups to avoid, if possible, include the Chiefs (vs. Jake Browning), Browns (vs. Trevor Siemian), and Patriots (vs. Josh Allen.)

Running Backs

Week 16 RB1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points Last Week
RB1 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 43.10
RB2 | Christian McCaffrey, SF | 25.10
RB3 | Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | 24.00
RB4 | James Conner, ARI | 22.20
RB5 | Derrick Henry, TEN | 21.38
RB6 | Ezekiel Elliott, NE | 21.00
RB7 | Rachaad White, TB | 19.70
RB8 | Chris Rodriguez, WAS | 19.50
RB9 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 19.40
RB10 | Bijan Robinson, ATL | 19.20
RB11 | Khalil Herbert, CHI | 19.10
RB12 | Kyren Williams, LAR | 16.40

Breece Hall went wild in Week Sixteen, carrying the Jets to victory and many fantasy teams into title games. Hall rushed for 95 yards, caught 12 balls for 96 yards, and scored twice on his way to a massive performance as the RB1 for the week. Rookie Chris Rodriguez found the end zone twice as he filled in for the injured Brian Robinson, notching his first-ever RB1 game.

Season-Long RB1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season
RB1 | Christian McCaffrey, SF | 378.20
RB2 | Raheem Mostert, MIA | 267.70
RB3 | Rachaad White, TB | 246.00
RB4 | Travis Etienne, JAX | 242.90
RB5 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 233.90
RB6 | Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | 227.80
RB7 | Alvin Kamara, NO | 226.10
RB8 | Kyren Williams, LAR | 224.90
RB9 | Joe Mixon, CIN | 223.60
RB10 | Derrick Henry, TEN | 221.16
RB11 | James Cook, BUF | 219.10
RB12 | Bijan Robinson, ATL | 208.60

Hall’s RB1 game helped to push him from the RB12 all the way up to the RB5 spot for the season. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs also scored twice last week and he’s now the RB6 on the season. Fallers for the week include Alvin Kamara (RB5 to RB7), Joe Mixon (RB6 to RB9), and James Cook (RB7 to RB11.) Bijan Robinson is back in the season-long RB1 group, replacing Tony Pollard.

Most RB1 Games This Season

RB1 Games | Players
13 | Christian McCaffrey
12 |
11 |
10 |
9 | Rachaad White
8 | Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams
7 | Bijan Robinson, Raheem Mostert, Travis Etienne, Alvin Kamara, Breece Hall
6 | Tony Pollard, James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs

Most RB1 Games Allowed

RB1/2 Games Allowed | Team DSTs
18 | ARI
17 | IND, SEA
16 | CAR, DEN, NYJ
15 | GB
14 | CHI, LAC, WAS
13 | HOU, JAX, NYG
12 | CIN, LV, NE, PIT
11 | ATL, BUF, KC, MIA, MIN
10 | PHI, SF, TEN
9 | BAL, CLE, DAL, NO, TB
8 | LAR
7 |
6 | DET

The Cardinals have allowed 18 top-24 fantasy performances and over 29 fantasy points per game, both worst in the league. This week, they face the Eagles and D’Andre Swift. After a hot stretch early in the season, Swift has significantly slowed, posting just one RB1 game since Week Six. This matchup could allow him to end the season on a high note. The Colts (vs. Josh Jacobs?) and Seahawks (vs. Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren) have each given up 17 top-24 performances to opposing backfields, putting their opponents in play each week.

Other defenses to target when selecting your runners this week include the Broncos (vs. Austin Ekeler), Commanders (vs. Christian McCaffrey), Panthers (vs. Travis Etienne), and Jets (vs. Jerome Ford.)

The Lions have been consistently strong against the run all season. That’s bad news for Pollard and the Cowboys this week. Pollard has been an inconsistent performer all season but hasn’t finished inside the top 15 backs since Week Thirteen. In the past two weeks, he’s finished as the RB36 and RB46. It will be tough to use Pollard in your title games this week.

Other matchups that make me nervous this week include the Rams (vs. Saquon Barkley), Falcons (vs. Khalil Herbert), Buccaneers (vs. Kamara), and Dolphins (vs. Gus Edwards.)

Wide Receivers

Week 16 WR1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points Last Week
WR1 | Amari Cooper, CLE | 51.50
WR2 | George Pickens, PIT | 35.50
WR3 | Puka Nacua, LAR | 33.00
WR4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | 28.60
WR5 | DJ Chark, CAR | 27.80
WR6 | Mike Evans, TB | 27.60
WR7 | Justin Jefferson, MIN | 26.10
WR8 | Calvin Ridley, JAX | 25.80
WR9 | CeeDee Lamb, DAL | 25.20
WR10 | Tee Higgins, CIN | 25.00
WR11 | Chris Olave, NO | 23.30
WR12 | Gabe Davis, BUF | 23.00

It was a historic day for Amari Cooper, who totaled 11 receptions for 265 yards and two touchdowns. That’s just the seventeenth time in league history a receiver has hit that mark in a game. That’s also the second-highest fantasy score for a receiver this season, behind only Ja’Marr Chase in Week Five. It’s good to see Justin Jefferson back among the WR1s after he totaled 141 yards on six receptions.

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Season-Long WR1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season
WR1 | Tyreek Hill, MIA | 341.60
WR2 | CeeDee Lamb, DAL | 327.50
WR3 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | 281.40
WR4 | AJ Brown, PHI | 280.40
WR5 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 278.86
WR6 | Mike Evans, TB | 267.30
WR7 | Puka Nacua, LAR | 265.70
WR8 | Stefon Diggs, BUF | 251.00
WR9 | Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | 249.72
WR10 | DJ Moore, CHI | 245.20
WR11 | Michael Pittman, IND | 233.20
WR12 | Amari Cooper, CLE | 227.00

The season-long wide receiver list really got a shake up last week as a few players posted monster performances and even more laid disappointing eggs. Amon-Ra St. Brown, now the WR3, swapped places with the injured Keenan Allen. Mike Evans and Ja’Marr Chase also traded places. Rookie Puka Nacua jumped from WR11 to WR7, while DJ Moore slid two spots. Despite an up and down season, Cooper is now among the WR1 group, replacing Deebo Samuel.

Most WR1 Games This Season

WR1 Games | Players
9 | Tyreek Hill
8 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb
7 | Keenan Allen, AJ Brown
6 | Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel
5 | Ja’Marr Chase, Michael Pittman, Calvin Ridley, Justin Jefferson

Most WR1 Games Allowed

WR1/2 Games Allowed | Team DSTs
24 | PHI
23 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
17 | LAC, WAS
16 | GB, TB
15 | BAL, CIN, JAX, TEN
14 | NE
13 | BUF, HOU, LAR, NYG, SEA, SF
12 |
11 | ARI, DET, IND, KC, MIN
10 | DAL, MIA
9 | CAR, CHI, LV, NO, NYJ
8 |
7 | ATL, CLE, PIT
6 |
5 | DEN

The good news is the Eagles didn’t allow a WR1 game last week. The bad news is they did let Giants receiver Darius Slayton post a WR2 performance, giving them 24 on the season. This week, Philly faces the Cardinals and with Marquise Brown banged up, fantasy managers might be left chasing Greg Dortch or Rondale Moore. Like Slayton, those players could end up producing solid games, but they can’t be started, even in this matchup.

That leaves us targeting the Chargers and Commanders next. Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk should have their way with Washington, but who knows what to expect from a Broncos offense with a new quarterback and a banged up WR1 in Courtland Sutton. This is another spot to be very careful with this week.

Finally, a few other matchups worth chasing this week include the Buccaneers (vs. Chris Olave), Titans (vs. Nico Collins?), Giants (vs. Cooper Kupp/Nacua), and Jaguars (vs. Adam Thielen/CJ Chark.)

The Broncos have only allowed five top-24 performances to receiver all season. Although I am a little worried about this team waving the white flag, I am still staying away from Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston, which are easy calls.

The Falcons (vs. DJ Moore), Browns (vs. Garrett Wilson), and Steelers (vs. DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett) are other teams to stay away from when making lineup decisions. With some of these players involved, that will prove very difficult this week.

Tight Ends

Week 16 TE1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points Last Week
TE1 | George Kittle, SF | 19.60
TE2 | Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN | 18.30
TE3 | Evan Engram, JAX | 17.50
TE4 | David Njoku, CLE | 16.40
TE5 | Juwan Johnson, NO | 14.80
TE6 | Cole Kmet, CHI | 14.70
TE7 | Logan Thomas, WAS | 14.60
TE8 | Dallas Goedert, PHI | 14.10
TE8 (Tie) | Dalton Schultz, HOU | 14.10
TE10 | Kyle Pitts, ATL | 13.90
TE11 | Lucas Krull, DEN | 12.80
TE12 | Kylen Granson, IND | 11.20
TE12 (Tie) | Gerald Everett, LAC | 11.20

Overall, it was a relatively quiet week for the entire tight end position, with no player eclipsing 20 fantasy points, which hadn’t happened since Week One. As he did late last season, Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo is showing some promise. We’ll see if dynasty managers fall as hard for him this offseason as they (we) did last year.

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Season-Long TE1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season
TE1 | TJ Hockenson, MIN | 219.00
TE2 | Travis Kelce, KC | 214.80
TE3 | Sam LaPorta, DET | 210.00
TE4 | George Kittle, SF | 197.30
TE5 | Evan Engram, JAX | 194.40
TE6 | David Njoku, CLE | 183.80
TE7 | Cole Kmet, CHI | 174.00
TE8 | Trey McBride, ARI | 158.30
TE9 | Jake Ferguson, DAL | 156.90
TE10 | Dalton Schultz, HOU | 137.40
TE11 | Mark Andrews, BAL | 135.40
TE12 | Kyle Pitts, ATL | 131.10

The top twelve tight ends were almost completely unchanged following last week’s action. We did see Kyle Pitts rejoin the TE1 group, replacing rookie Dalton Kincaid. Barring a massive collapse, the current top-nine fantasy scorers here are essentially locked in as TE1s for this season.

Most TE1 Games This Season

TE1 Games | Players
11 | Evan Engram, TJ Hockenson
10 | Travis Kelce, Cole Kmet, David Njoku
9 | Sam LaPorta, Jake Ferguson, George Kittle
8 |
7 | Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, Dalton Schultz

Most TE1 Games Allowed

TE1 Games Allowed | Team DSTs
10 | CIN
9 | DEN, HOU, LAR, NYJ
8 | ARI, ATL, BAL, CHI, PHI
7 | IND, JAX, TB
6 | GB, LAC, NO, NYG, PIT, SEA, SF, WAS
5 | DET, LV, MIN
4 | CLE, KC, MIA, NE
3 | BUF, CAR
2 | DAL, TEN

The Bengals continue to be the team to target when it comes to the tight end position. This week, that means starting Travis Kelce. Y’know, in case you weren’t sure about that. Seriously though, Kelce has lacked the huge ceiling games this season. He has exceeded 23 fantasy points just once all season. Facing the Bengals this week will feel like a must-win game for both squads and Kelce could become the league-winner he has been for years.

Other players with solid matchups include Gerald Everett (vs. DEN), Okonkwo (vs. HOU), Pitts (vs. CHI), and Juwan Johnson (vs. TB.)

The Cowboys and Titans have allowed only two TE1 games all year. This week, Dallas faces the massive challenge of stopping rookie Sam LaPorta and his Lions teammates. Even with this matchup, I’m sticking with the rookie. The Titans face Houston, where the offense has dried up following the injury to CJ Stroud. That will be a situation to monitor, but it won’t be easy clicking the button next to Dalton Schlutz’s name this week.

Other players with challenging matchups with week include Kincaid/Dawson Knox (vs. NE), George Kittle (vs. WAS), and Dallas Goedert (vs. ARI.)

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.