Dynasty Blueprint: Week Six

Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind.

This is my personal weekly Dynasty Blueprint. This week, I am shaking things up with a new format. I welcome your feedback in the comments below. Ultimately, this article and all of the content on DLF is for you, the reader. The goal is to make you a better dynasty player and bring home some titles. Hopefully, this will help you reach that goal.

DYNASTY FIVE

Here are the five dynasty-related stories that have my attention coming off of another week of NFL action.

London Has Life

Drake London is back. For weeks, I and many other fantasy managers have complained about how the Falcons and head coach Arthur Smith are using (or not using) the young, talented receiver London (and his sidekick Kyle Pitts.) Against the Commanders on Sunday, London hauled in nine passes for 125 yards on 12 targets. Each of these represent career-high marks for London. While this is London’s best game, things have been trending in the right direction since his Week One goose egg. London now has three top-24 finishes and he’s the WR16 since Week Two. On the most recent DLF Dynasty Podcast, we conducted a 1QB dynasty startup mock draft and I selected London early in the second round.

Mostert / Must Start

In the Dolphins’ first game without rookie running back De’Von Achane, they didn’t miss a beat. Veteran Raheem Mostert went wild and Miami racked up 42 points, doubling up the Panthers. Mostert scored three times, compiling 132 yards along the way. Mostert now leads the league in rushing scores (9) and total touchdowns (11) and is the RB2 on the season, behind only Christian McCaffrey. As a key part of the league’s top offense, Mostert is an obvious weekly fantasy starter but will remain a dynasty enigma. Both Mostert’s age (31) and the impending return of Achane should keep Mostert’s dynasty value down. This reminds me of Rob Gronkowski’s second stint in the league when he returned to play with the Buccaneers. Gronk was here for a good time, not a long time. We have to start treating Mostert the same way and be willing to pay up, even given the age, competition, and injury risks he brings along.

Injuries Continue

If you thought the injuries were rough last week as Justin Jefferson, Anthony Richardson, and Achane each landed on the injured reserve, Week Six might have been even worse. Along with stars like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and David Montgomery dealing with injuries, four different quarterbacks were forced to leave their respective games early. Justin Fields (hand), Trevor Lawrence (knee), Jimmy Garoppolo (back), and Ryan Tannehill (ankle) all missed time and bring an uncertain status into the coming week. While Tannehill will have two weeks to heal, the other three have Week Seven games scheduled, including the Jaguars’ Thursday night tilt. As devastating as injuries to McCaffrey, Jefferson, and Achane to individual teams, quarterback injuries can create widespread chaos, impacting key pass-catchers and all members of the offense. A drop from Lawrence to CJ Beathard or Fields to Tyson Bagent can eliminate receivers like Calvin Ridley or DJ Moore from the fantasy-starter conversation. More thoughts on injuries later…

Disappointing Sophomores

A pair of second-year players continue to disappoint and it appears that both have been bypassed on the depth chart by their veteran teammates. Starting in Houston, running back Dameon Pierce has not come close to matching his impressive rookie season numbers. Pierce does have a pair of RB2 finishes but has a season-high of just 81 rushing yards and has scored one touchdown all year. Through this subpar play, Pierce has still held off his competition, at least until Week Six. Veteran Devin Singletary out-snapped Pierce 34-21, ran 11 more routes, and nearly doubled up Pierce’s yardage numbers. This could end up being a fluke but for me, it’s the final nail in Pierce’s coffin. He was the most obvious dynasty sell of the offseason as his ADP continued to climb despite limited upside from a lack of pass-catching role and questionable overall offense. The DLF Trade Finder suggests Pierce can still be sold for a future second-round pick or similarly-valued veterans. Pierce is a player I’d be selling as soon as possible.

The other young player who has not lived up to the hype is Jahan Dotson of the Commanders. After leading the team in touchdowns as a rookie, the arrival of Eric Bieniemy as Washington’s offensive coordinator increased the Dotson hype even more. By September, Dotson was being drafted as a top-24 wideout and climbed into the top-50 overall, based on our 1QB Dynasty ADP. Instead of boosting the young receiver, the new-look offense has been a negative, spreading the ball around and focusing on the running game. Dotson only has one weekly finish inside the top 45 fantasy wideouts and he currently sits at WR66 for the season. Meanwhile, veteran Curtis Samuel is playing the best ball of his career. Not only is Samuel easily outpacing Dotson, but he’s less than two fantasy points behind Washington’s WR1 Terry McLaurin. At just 23 years old, Dotson is an obvious buy-low target, even if he can’t be trusted for the remainder of this season.

Rookie Frustration

Many dynasty managers have clearly grown frustrated with rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s limited production entering Week Six. Being stuck behind veterans Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf and sporting one of the lowest aDots in the league, dynasty managers had their regrets about using a top-three rookie pick on the former Buckeyes superstar. It has obviously been slow-going for the rookie but we saw some positive trends in Week Six. Smith-Njigba drew five targets, catching four for 48 yards. The yardage, along with Smith-Njigba’s 52 snaps and 39 routes each represent a new career-high. Dynasty managers should not be giving up on a talented rookie after six weeks, but we’ve already seen it happen. I’ll continue to check in with the JSN managers in my leagues to make sure they are not among the angered subset.

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FOR YOUR EYES ONLY

The longtime DLF readers might remember this from my time penning the weekly DLF Dynasty Newsletter. Essentially, this area will offer me an opportunity to share whatever dynasty-related topic is at the front of my mind this week.

Since last week, when thinking about my dynasty teams or fantasy football in general, one topic dominated my time…injuries. With the 1.01 dynasty startup pick and two of the most important and top-scoring rookies all landing on the injured reserve list within the past few days, it is difficult to focus on anything else. To make matters worse, the Week Six injured list was massive, including McCaffrey, Montgomery, Samuel, Fields and many more.

Airpods in as I drove home from a family vacation late last week, I caught up on podcasts as my mind wandered through this topic of injuries, hopefully covering all angles. Join me as I revisit that thought process…

Roster depth is so important in dynasty leagues. If you have a contending team, you can’t let your chances end with one ill-timed injury. Being flush with backup options, or realistic paths to acquire them, is a must for true contenders.

I love dynasty leagues with large rosters. My main leagues, a series of contract leagues I run, feature 30-man active rosters with as many as ten rookies and college players on a taxi squad. Yet still, I find players I want to add to my roster each week. That was definitely the case over the past week as speculative adds like Chris Brooks and Malik Cunningham suddenly looked like must-have players. The issue is with every add, a drop is also required, forcing a man versus man decision. Which player is the most valuable? Which player has the clearest path to helping my team? Which player has the most upside? If the answer is the same for each of these questions, the decision is easy, but that’s usually not the case.

Back to the injuries to the big three from Week Five. I examined my dozen or so dynasty rosters and was simultaneously relieved and disappointed that I had very few shares of Richardson, Jefferson, and Achane on my teams. Then, league by league, I did what I always do anytime there is a serious injury to a key player. I found which of my competitors currently rostered said player and immediately checked that team’s record and standing in the league. This tells me if a trade, either for the injured player or another player to serve as a replacement, is feasible. Finally, I had this realization…when a player like Jefferson or Achane is lost for a significant amount of time, the playoff and title odds for every other team in the league increase. Make sure you’re taking advantage of that unexpected boost.