Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Early 4th

The 2023 class is good. Better than good. Even more enticing, it’s not a fish-in-barrel class, so others can make mistakes confidently while we laugh.

It is also a top-heavy class.

The wide receiver position has two or three prospects clearly above the rest, depending on your point of view, ad a solid second tier we’ll know more about after the draft. The running back position also has some very good options outside the current – or soon-to-see if you’re not up to date – RB1 Bijan Robinson.

In other words, 2023 is an ideal class to trade up in.

Sleepers, as I’ve told you before, don’t exist and suck when they are drafted higher. However, there are consistent areas we can look for value, find common edges and (perhaps) take advantage of mistakes by the broader consensus. 2023 is the type of draft class you want to make those bets on.

Until August, we don’t know exactly who will be drafted where in most rookie drafts. However, working with the current DLF ADP, what can we say about the early fourth round this year?

HISTORICAL CONSENSUS PICKS

2022

4.01 - Pierre Strong, RB NE

4.02 - Khalil Shakir, WR BUF

4.03 - Tyquan Thornton, WR NE

4.04 - Jerome Ford, RB CLE

2021

4.01 - Jaret Patterson, RB WAS

4.02 - Dez Fitzpatrick, WR TEN

4.03 - Tommy Tremble, TE CAR

4.04 - Tamorrion Terry, WR UDFA

2020

4.01 - Tyler Johnson, WR TB

4.02 - Lamical Perine, RB NYJ

4.03 - Devin Asiasi, TE NE

4.04 - Adam Trautman, TE NO

I’ve been collecting DLF startup ADP for a while. I’ve found some noticeable trends that are actionable or at least a decent guide to expectation.