2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Bust Mock Draft: Round One

The rookie bust mock draft is one of our favorite things to do at DLF each year. This unique draft is designed to show who we think has the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. We drafted one player at a time and anyone at DLF could jump in (they just couldn’t go back-to-back with their picks). The top selection was the player in the top 36 who they believed carries the single greatest amount of risk. In other words, they have the highest likelihood to bust due to their landing spot, draft capital, or ADP. In other words, the last player taken is the safest and the first carries the most risk. All players had to be taken off our list of the top 36 rookies, so that’s as follows:

Marvin Harrison Jr
Malik Nabers
Rome Odunze
Brock Bowers
Brian Thomas
Xavier Worthy
Jonathon Brooks
Ladd McConkey
Keon Coleman
Caleb Williams
Trey Benson
Ricky Pearsall
Jayden Daniels
Xavier Legette
Adonai Mitchell
Roman Wilson
Jaylen Wright
Ja’Lynn Polk
Drake Maye
Malachi Corley
Blake Corum
MarShawn Lloyd
JJ McCarthy
Jermaine Burton
Troy Franklin
Bo Nix
Devontez Walker
Ray Davis
Jalen McMillan
Bucky Irving
Ja’Tavion Sanders
Javon Baker
Ben Sinnott
Audric Estime
Isaac Guerendo
Will Shipley

There were a lot of changes when you look back to our pre-draft versions. If you missed those, make sure you check out Round One, Round Two and Round Three. With all that in mind, let’s get to it with round one of our post-draft version. I’ll add the comments made and a few of my own with each pick.

1.01 = Ladd McConkey, WR LAC

Comments from inside the War Room: “Dude had 30 catches and is being touted as the big thing. No thanks.”

My thoughts: I’m not really stunned to see McConkey taken at the top of this exercise. It’s going to take a late first round draft pick to acquire him and that’s a lot of draft capital to use on a player who is really unproven. The Chargers are going to give Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer a real opportunity to succeed and they won’t give up easily on Johnston, specifically. Throw a veteran like DJ Chark into the mix and this thing gets a little muddy, especially when you consider this looks like a team that wants to run the ball and play defense.

1.02 = Drake Maye, QB NE

Comments from inside the War Room: Well, there were a lot. Without quoting everything and boring the masses, it seems there are a whole host of opinions on just how good Maye will be. Some believe he has a solid floor and won’t need to be surrounded by elite players, while others believe he’s being set up to fail.

My thoughts: I see Maye as having a higher floor than most but I can see the other side of the coin. The Patriots are a mess and have very little to surround him with. While Caleb Williams is set up for early success, Maye is in a far worse situation. We’ve seen countless rookie quarterbacks be put in miserable situations and be ruined early. Maye could easily be the next on that list.

1.03 = Ja’Lynn Polk, WR NE

Comments from inside the War Room:  “He was a college WR3? Even acknowledging they were loaded, not my guy.”

My thoughts: It’s a fair argument as you could say Polk was behind not only Rome Odunze but Jalen McMillan at Washington as well. There are also questions about the direction of the Patriots (see Maye, Drake). While Polk should be set up for early success, there are no guarantees here and his rookie draft capital does clearly make him a risk.

1.04 = Xavier Legette, WR CAR

Comments from inside the War Room: “Not a great player on an awful team.”

My thoughts: When around 3/4 of your college production comes in one season, it’s not hard to find yourself on this list. Legette is a one-year wonder who is now on a team trying to figure out if they have a bust at quarterback. You’re taking a chance with him for sure.

1.05- = Bo Nix, QB DEN

Comments from inside the War Room:  “Lowest ADOT and Big Time Throw Rate in the draft class.”

My thoughts: Nix, much like JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix, looks like a player who the Broncos are just desperately trying to make fit into their plans and convince themselves he’s a franchise quarterback. It’s unbelievable how teams will overpay for a shot at their next franchise signal caller but that’s the world we now live in.

1.06 – Keon Coleman, WR BUF

Comments from inside the War Room:  He produced in all the wrong ways as a touchdown only machine with minimal yards to back that up. He’s also a terrible route runner and landing on the Bills is the only reason he’s even considered as high as he is in rookie drafts.

My thoughts: That logic does make some sense and everyone just assumes he’s the WR1 on day one. I’m honestly not so sure.

1.07 = Brian Thomas, WR JAX

Comments from inside the War Room: Averaging less than three catches and 30 yards per game across his first two seasons at LSU before playing in a facilitative environment during his junior season with an elite quarterback and across from a wide receiver both taken in the top six of the NFL Draft. Poor career PFF rating and yards per route ran are indicators of an overhyped asset, with major bust potential despite round one draft capital.

My thoughts: Thomas has one of the easier paths to playing time since the Jags lost Calvin Ridley but there are legitimate questions about just what he can be. He has a huge upside but I can see why someone would take him highly in this exercise.

1.08 – Devontez Walker. WR BAL

Comments from inside the War Room: “I started losing interest in Walker during the early draft process. His showing at the Senior Bowl was disappointing. He had drop issues and looked a little disinterested. He helped himself with a 4.36 40-yard dash and a 40-inch vertical jump at the combine to help save his draft capital but when Walker ended up being drafted by the Baltimore Ravens in the fourth round that pretty much sealed the deal for me. I don’t like the landing spot and add that with going in the fourth round and I’m completely out on Walker.”

My thoughts: The draft capital you’ll need to use to land Walker (somewhere in the third round range) likely pushes him down this list. He really is an enigma as we’ve seen some real talent but the sample size is so small we really don’t know what we may have.

1.09 – Jayden Daniels, QB WAS

Comments from inside the War Room: “Reliance on scrambling under pressure was a statistical outlier among historical draft prospects. That and his propensity for taking awe-inspiring hits will not translate well to the league. If he can’t hold down a long-term starting job in the NFL, it’ll be pretty hard for him to rack up rushing yards on the bench. Additional hurdle is a massive talent advantage at WR being taken away.”

My thoughts: To me, Daniels seems like a huge boom or bust prospect. If we were to have a “boom” mock draft where we drafted the players we thought would be the biggest bargains, he could be the 1.01. It’s an extreme and wide range of possibilities with Daniels and this is going to be fun to watch. Feel lucky?

1.10 Adonai Mitchell, WR IND

Comments from inside the War Room:  “Poor analytical profile who never consistently put it together in college.”

My thoughts: Mitchell dropped in the draft and despite the Colts vehemently defending him, there’s still concern around the league. In addition, he may have really benefited from playing across Xavier Worthy. I see the concern here.

1.11 – Ricky Pearsall, WR SF

Comments from inside the War Room:  “Buried on a depth chart as the fifth option behind CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle. Talent level similar to fourth round pick Jacob Cowing. Average production profile and already almost 24 years old.”

My thoughts: A lot of people are penciling Pearsall in for massive production but the fact of the matter is they haven’t traded Aiyuk or Samuel. Furthermore, this offense is clearly going to run through Christian McCaffrey. While I like Pearsall as a prospect, there’s nothing guaranteed here.

1.12 – Bucky Irving, RB TB

Comments from inside the War Room:  “The NFL combine showed Irving’s physical limitations – that’s not great for a running back who is already undersized. While his receiving stats from college look good, his production mostly relied on screen passes. He isn’t naturally gifted at catching the ball. He also forced a decent amount of missed tackles in college, which could be hard to replicate in the NFL.”

My thoughts: Irving just looks like a bit of a shot in the dark for me as well. Even if he hits, he just doesn’t seem like much of a difference maker. You won’t have to sell the farm to get him but he seems like a player who could simply soak up a roster spot for a bit before flaming out.