Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week Three

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week Three QB1s (top 12 scorers)

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Week
QB1 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 29.30
QB2 | Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | 28.36
QB3 | Lamar Jackson, BAL | 28.18
QB4 | Kirk Cousins, MIN | 25.68
QB4 (Tie) | Patrick Mahomes, KC | 25.68
QB6 | Jordan Love, GB | 24.26
QB7 | Andy Dalton, CAR | 23.54
QB8 | Josh Allen, BUF | 21.32
QB9 | Deshaun Watson, CLE | 21.16
QB10 | CJ Stroud, HOU | 20.60
QB11 | Brock Purdy, SF | 20.30
QB12 | Jalen Hurts, PHI | 19.88

Week three included a high-scoring back and forth affair between the Chargers and Vikings which resulted in a huge serving of fantasy points. Justin Herbert finished as the QB1 for the week while Kirk Cousins was the QB4. Tua Tagovailoa had a decent game, but we’ll save that talk for other positions.

Andy Dalton somehow set a new career-high for passing attempts, chucking the ball a whopping 58 times, which is also the most for any quarterback this season. That helped him finish as the QB7 for the week and may even give the Panthers coaching staff enough confidence to rest rookie Bryce Young for another week.

Season-Long QB1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season
QB1 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 72.36
QB2 | Kirk Cousins, MIN | 70.70
QB3 | Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | 67.76
QB4 | Jordan Love, GB | 67.60
QB5 | Patrick Mahomes, KC | 66.42
QB6 | Lamar Jackson, BAL | 57.62
QB7 | Jalen Hurts, PHI | 57.60
QB8 | Russell Wilson, DEN | 55.34
QB9 | Jared Goff, DET | 54.96
QB10 | Josh Allen, BUF | 54.02
QB11 | Deshaun Watson, CLE | 53.42
QB12 | CJ Stroud, HOU | 52.74

Herbert’s strong Week Three performance pushed him up to the overall QB1 spot for the young season, with a narrow lead over his opponent last week, Kirk Cousins. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson had gotten off to a slow start in the new Baltimore offense but his 101-yard rushing game against the Colts boosted him into the top-12 for the first time this year.

Other players to climb into the QB1 range after three weeks include Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and rookie CJ Stroud. With four in, four quarterbacks also had to be forced out. This week, that means Anthony Richardson, Mac Jones, Sam Howell, and Daniel Jones are no longer QB1s, at least not after three weeks.

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Most QB1 Games This Season

QB1 Games | Players
3 | Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins
2 | Brock Purdy, CJ Stroud, Deshaun Watson, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa

Most QB1 Games Allowed

QB1 Games Allowed | Team DSTs
3 | IND, MIN
2 | ARI, CHI, CIN, DEN, JAX, LAC, LV, NYG, PHI, SEA, TB, TEN, WAS
1 | DET, GB, MIA, NO, PIT
0 | ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CLE, DAL, HOU, KC, LAR, NE, NYJ, SF

Three weeks into the season, the Colts and Vikings have each allowed a QB1 performance to every opponent. This week, the Colts face veteran Matthew Stafford and the Rams, while the Vikings match up against the Panthers. Early reports suggest rookie Bryce Young could return after missing last week, but if not, we’ll see the veteran Dalton once again. The Chargers and Broncos are two other teams allowing plenty of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. That could boost the matchup for the Raiders, though it is not clear who will be starting with Jimmy Garoppolo in the concussion protocol. Veteran Brian Hoyer would draw the start if Jimmy G can’t go. Denver faces the Bears and might be just what Justin Fields needs to jump-start his season.

Over one-third of the league has yet to allow a QB1 game, which leaves us to focus on fantasy points allowed. The Browns are the class of the league right now in this category, surrendering less than eight fantasy points per position to opposing quarterbacks. This week, that’s bad news for Jackson and the Ravens, though it will be difficult to put him on your bench. Other teams holding opposing quarterbacks under 14 fantasy points include the Bills (vs. Tua Tagovailoa), Panthers (vs. Cousins), Rams (vs. Richardson), and Patriots (vs. Dak Prescott).

Running Backs

Week Three RB1s (top 12 scorers)

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Week
RB1 | DeVon Achane, MIA | 51.30
RB2 | Raheem Mostert, MIA | 45.20
RB3 | Kenneth Walker, SEA | 30.60
RB4 | Christian McCaffrey, SF | 22.90
RB5 | Zack Moss, IND | 22.50
RB6 | James Conner, ARI | 19.60
RB7 | Jerome Ford, CLE | 19.10
RB8 | Jerick McKinnon, KC | 17.80
RB8 (Tie) | Travis Etienne, JAX | 17.80
RB10 | Alexander Mattison, MIN | 17.50
RB11 | Miles Sanders, CAR | 17.20
RB12 | Isiah Pacheco, KC | 15.80

The story of the week, and ultimately one of the stories of the entire season, was the running back production from the Miami Dolphins in Week Three. Rookie De’Von Achane had hardly seen the field until his breakout game against the Broncos but that didn’t stop him from racking up over 200 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Achane’s veteran teammate Raheem Mostert was no slouch himself, also scoring four times as the duo became just the second pair of running back teammates to each score four times in a single game.

Season-Long RB1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season
RB1 | Raheem Mostert, MIA | 83.90
RB2 | Christian McCaffrey, SF | 71.30
RB3 | Kenneth Walker, SEA | 59.70
RB4 | Tony Pollard, DAL | 57.20
RB5 | Kyren Williams, LAR | 53.90
RB6 | DeVon Achane, MIA | 53.20
RB7 | Bijan Robinson, ATL | 51.50
RB8 | Brian Robinson, WAS | 49.50
RB9 | James Conner, ARI | 48.20
RB10 | Travis Etienne, JAX | 45.40
RB11 | Jerome Ford, CLE | 44.80
RB12 | James Cook, BUF | 43.40

Mostert’s massive game boosted him from the RB6 last week to the overall RB1 three weeks into the season. Lost in all of the Dolphins’ excitement was another excellent game for Kenneth Walker, who was the RB3 for the week and jumped from RB12 to RB3 on the season. Achane amazingly moved into the RB6 spot on the basis of his one breakout game.

Others moving into the RB1 range this week included James Conner, Travis Etienne, and Jerome Ford. They replaced the fallers Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Tyler Allgeier.

Most RB1 Games This Season

RB1 Games | Players
3 | Christian McCaffrey
2 | Bijan Robinson, Jerome Ford, Kyren Williams, Raheem Mostert, Tony Pollard, Travis Etienne, Zack Moss

Most RB1 Games Allowed

RB1 Games Allowed | Team DSTs
4 | CHI
3 | CAR, DEN
2 | GB, HOU, MIA, NYG, PIT, SEA
1 | ARI, BAL, BUF, CIN, DAL, IND, LAC, LAR, LV, MIN, NE, NYJ, SF, TEN
0 | ATL, CLE, DET, JAX, KC, NO, PHI, TB, WAS

The Bears have now allowed four RB1 performances through just three games. Coming up this week, Chicago hosts the Broncos, who just allowed the top two running back games in Week Three. I’m not sure if this is a get-right spot for Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine or Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Or maybe it’s just an ugly game to avoid. I’ll likely be rolling with any of the above backs in this matchup or terrible teams.

The Panthers are another team to target and this week, they face the Vikings. Alexander Mattison is coming off his best game of the short season but we will likely see the Minnesota debut of former Ram Cam Akers as well.

There are five teams allowing less than 15 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Those teams to avoid are the Browns (vs. Justice Hill), Cowboys (vs. Stevenson), Falcons (vs. Etienne), Chiefs (vs. Breece Hall), and Titans (vs. Joe Mixon).

Wide Receivers

Week Three WR1s (top 12 scorers)

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Week
WR1 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 45.46
WR2 | Davante Adams, LV | 42.20
WR3 | Adam Thielen, CAR | 31.50
WR4 | Tyreek Hill, MIA | 30.70
WR5 | Justin Jefferson, MIN | 27.90
WR6 | Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | 26.10
WR7 | Tank Dell, HOU | 25.50
WR8 | Deebo Samuel, SF | 25.10
WR8 (Tie) | Mike Williams, LAC | 25.10
WR10 | Amari Cooper, CLE | 24.60
WR11 | AJ Brown, PHI | 22.10
WR12 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | 19.60

For the second straight week, Chargers veteran Keenan Allen was the overall WR1. With the unfortunate injury to his teammate Mike Williams, who was the WR8 on the week, Allen should continue to feast. Fellow veteran Davante Adams nearly matched Allen’s performance and leads all pass-catchers with an amazing 57% first-read percentage, per Fantasy Points Data. No other player in the league owns more than a 43% first-read share.

Tank Dell had another big game and now clearly has the attention of dynasty managers who overlooked him during the draft cycle, including myself. Dell led the Texans in virtually all receiving stats and has quickly turned himself into CJ Stroud’s favorite target.

Season-Long WR1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season
WR1 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 90.76
WR2 | Tyreek Hill, MIA | 90.20
WR3 | Justin Jefferson, MIN | 76.80
WR4 | Davante Adams, LV | 75.20
WR5 | Mike Evans, TB | 64.70
WR6 | Puka Nacua, LAR | 64.20
WR7 | Stefon Diggs, BUF | 58.90
WR8 | Deebo Samuel, SF | 58.50
WR9 | Adam Thielen, CAR | 55.10
WR10 | Michael Pittman, IND | 54.00
WR11 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | 52.90
WR12 | Chris Olave, NO | 52.20

A week ago, Adams was not among the top twelve fantasy receivers and now he’s all the way up to WR4. Expect him to remain on this list for the remainder of the season. Allen is now the overall WR1, narrowly edging out Tyreek Hill. That duo has a massive lead over Justin Jefferson and the rest of the pack, averaging nearly five more fantasy points per contest.

Along with Adams, other players joining the WR1 group this week include Deebo Samuel, Adam Thielen, Amon-Ra St. Brown. They replace Nico Collins, DeVonta Smith, Brandon Aiyuk, CeeDee Lamb, and Josh Reynolds.

Most WR1 Games This Season

WR1 Games | Players
3 | Justin Jefferson
2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen, Puka Nacua, Tyreek Hill

Most WR1 Games Allowed

WR1 Games Allowed | Team DSTs
4 | TEN
3 | MIN, SEA
2 | DEN, IND, JAX, LAC, LAR, NYJ, PHI, PIT, TB
1 | ATL, BAL, CHI, CLE, DET, KC, NYG, SF
0 | ARI, BUF, CAR, CIN, DAL, GB, HOU, LV, MIA, NE, NO, WAS

The Titans are dominant against the run but give it up to opposing passing games. This could be another big week for Bengals star Ja’Marr Chase and maybe his running mate Tee Higgins gets going too. I’ll have both in my lineups and would even consider Tyler Boyd if I’m desperate.

The Vikings and Seahawks are next, allowing three WR1 games this season. Minnesota faces the Panthers, so this could be another strong week for the veteran Thielen. Seattle visits the Giants on Monday Night Football. Good luck guessing which Giants wideout will be the one to have a big game against the Seahawks. I’ll side with my favorite, Wan’Dale Robinson.

Just as they have defended the quarterbacks so well, the Browns have in turn shut down opposing receivers, allowing less than 20 fantasy points per game to the position. This is the best in the league by a full four fantasy points. That’s enough to make me look for alternatives to rookie Zay Flowers this week in what should be a low-scoring matchup.

Other teams to avoid include Buffalo (vs. Hill, Jaylen Waddle), Dallas (vs. DeVante Parker), Carolina (vs. Jefferson, Jordan Addison), and Green Bay (vs. St. Brown.) Obviously, no one is moving some of these superstars to the fantasy bench, but be prepared for a bit of a let-down compared to typical production.

Tight Ends

Week Three TE1s (top 12 scorers)

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Week
TE1 | Sam LaPorta, DET | 22.40
TE2 | Travis Kelce, KC | 19.90
TE3 | George Kittle, SF | 16.00
TE4 | Pharoah Brown, NE | 15.10
TE5 | Donald Parham, LAC | 14.40
TE6 | TJ Hockenson, MIN | 13.80
TE7 | Evan Engram, JAX | 13.70
TE8 | Pat Freiermuth, PIT | 13.10
TE9 | Tyler Higbee, LAR | 12.10
TE10 | Luke Musgrave, GB | 10.90
TE11 | Jake Ferguson, DAL | 9.80
TE12 | Brevin Jordan, HOU | 9.30

In the first two weeks of the season, Lions rookie Sam LaPorta had been solid, catching five balls per game and finishing as the TE8 each week. In Week Three, he had a long catch and run for a score and showed that he also has some weekly upside. Perhaps playing inspired football, Travis Kelce scored a touchdown in the Chiefs blowout of the Bears, helping him to finish as the TE2 for the week.

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Season-Long TE1s

Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season
TE1 | TJ Hockenson, MIN | 50.90
TE2 | Sam LaPorta, DET | 42.60
TE3 | Hunter Henry, NE | 37.50
TE4 | Evan Engram, JAX | 35.30
TE5 | Travis Kelce, KC | 32.50
TE6 | Donald Parham, LAC | 27.30
TE7 | George Kittle, SF | 26.90
TE8 | Darren Waller, NYG | 25.20
TE9 | Tyler Higbee, LAR | 24.20
TE10 | Luke Musgrave, GB | 23.40
TE11 | Jake Ferguson, DAL | 23.00
TE11 (Tie) | Mark Andrews, BAL | 23.00

TJ Hockenson continues to dominate the rest of his position, with a gap of more than eight points between him and his Lions replacement, LaPorta. The rookie has another significant gap of five points to the TE3. Of course, it’s safe to assume Kelce will continue to move up the ranks, making up for his missed game in Week One.

Darren Waller and Mark Andrews show up on this list even though they can each be viewed as disappointments through three weeks. Kelce, George Kittle, Tyler Higbee, Luke Musgrave, and Jake Ferguson join the TE1 ranks, while Hayden Hurst, Zach Ertz, Logan Thomas, Kylen Granson, Cole Kmet, and Dalton Kincaid all move out.

Most TE1 Games This Season

TE1 Games | Players
3 | Evan Engram, Sam LaPorta, TJ Hockenson
2 | Donald Parham, Hunter Henry, Jake Ferguson, Logan Thomas, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz

Most TE1 Games Allowed

TE1 Games Allowed | Team DSTs
3 | ARI, CIN
2 | ATL, CHI, HOU, JAX, KC, LV, MIA, NYG, NYJ, PHI
1 | DEN, DET, GB, IND, LAC, MIN, NO, SEA, TB, WAS
0 | BAL, BUF, CAR, CLE, DAL, LAR, NE, PIT, SF, TEN

The Cardinals always seem to top this list every season. This year, they’ve already allowed three TE1 games and now must find a way to slow down Kittle. The veteran is obviously locked into fantasy lineups. The Bengals have also surrendered three TE1 games, which could be what dynasty-favorite Chig Okonkwo needs to jump-start his season.

Other teams allowing solid tight end performances include the Lions (vs. Musgrave), Eagles (vs. Thomas), and Jets (vs. Kelce). Amazingly, seven teams are allowing fewer than six fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. This early in the season, some of that result could be matchup-based, but it is impressive nonetheless. Those teams to shy away from include the Bills (vs. Durham Smythe/Julian Hill), Commanders (vs. Dallas Goedert), Saints (vs. Cade Otton), Steelers (vs. Dalton Schultz), Patriots (vs. Jake Ferguson), Ravens (vs. David Njoku) and Browns (vs. Pat Freiermuth).

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.